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TB · Bye 10 · Rookie

Ted Hurst III

LMD WR71 for Week 4 · 4.7 projected Half PPR points · WR76 rest of season

Regular season

Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 4.7 points this week, WR71. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 8% of simulated weeks. Down 6 since Week 3.

Week 4

WR71

177th by projected points

Rest of season

WR76

162nd by projected points

Projected

4.7

week 4, Half PPR

Top 12

3%

Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 8% at WR

Movement

↓ 6

WR65 in Week 3, WR71 now

Should you start Ted Hurst III in Week 4?

Bench

Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Ted Hurst III WR71 for Week 4, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 8% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

Half PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All WR rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Ted Hurst III by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 3 completed games Ted Hurst III has averaged +2.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Ted Hurst III, Half PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 @ CIN 2.2 5.1 +2.9
Wk 2 vs CLE 2.9 3.7 +0.8
Wk 3 vs MIN 5.8 10.5 +4.7
Wk 4 vs GB 4.7 Pending —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 65.9 points this season, WR76. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 4.9 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 6 since the Oct. 1 board.

Per game

4.9 / game

Over 14 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR

Market input

thin

Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Ted Hurst III #184 in 1QB and #187 in Superflex, WR77 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.

1QB

#184

WR77 · tier 41 · of 297 · rookie 23 of 52

Superflex

#187

WR77 · tier 35 · of 303 · rookie 24 of 52

  • Draft capital Round 3, pick 84 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

15.02

pick 170.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

15.02

half of simulations take him by pick 170

Draft range

14.07 - 15.10

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 5,053 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams
Scoring Half PPR
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Dynasty also published: Rookie

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 15.02 in 77% of simulations

Pick 170 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

The middle half of simulations take him between 14.09 and 15.07.

Ted Hurst III still on the board
PickAvailable
14.12 82%
15.01 79%
15.02 77%
15.03 75%
15.04 72%
15.05 69%
15.06 67%
15.07 64%
15.08 62%
15.09 59%
15.10 57%
15.11 54%
15.12 52%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Ted Hurst III was selected at each pick, 14.07 through 15.10. He goes earlier than this window in 5%, later in 5%, undrafted in 49%.
Draft position distribution for Ted Hurst III
PickShare of simulationsCount
14.073%251 of 10000 simulations
14.083%260 of 10000 simulations
14.093%287 of 10000 simulations
14.103%272 of 10000 simulations
14.113%256 of 10000 simulations
14.123%264 of 10000 simulations
15.012%210 of 10000 simulations
15.022%235 of 10000 simulations
15.033%258 of 10000 simulations
15.043%262 of 10000 simulations
15.053%266 of 10000 simulations
15.063%259 of 10000 simulations
15.073%252 of 10000 simulations
15.082%231 of 10000 simulations
15.092%248 of 10000 simulations
15.103%253 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 5053 simulations in which Ted Hurst III was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Ted Hurst III was selected in 5053 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
October 1, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
rank

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.