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TB · Bye 10

Tez Johnson

LMD WR Tier 10 for Week 9 · 3.0 projected Half PPR points

In season

Week 9 fantasy ranking

We project 3.0 points this week, WR Tier 10. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.0 - 7.2 points. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 2% of simulated weeks.

Week 9

WR Tier 10

2.6 - 3.3 projected points

Projected

3.0

week 9, Half PPR

Top 12

1%

Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 2% at WR

Movement

↓ 25

WR86 in Week 8, WR111 now

Should you start Tez Johnson in Week 9?

Bench

Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Tez Johnson WR111 for Week 9, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 2% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

Half PPR scoring · Updated November 5, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All WR rankings · Projected points board

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 6 completed games Tez Johnson has averaged +0.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Tez Johnson, Half PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 @ CIN — -0.4 —
Wk 2 — — 5.4 —
Wk 3 vs MIN 2.7 1.3 -1.4
Wk 4 vs GB 3.1 3.7 +0.6
Wk 5 @ DAL 3.0 6.9 +3.9
Wk 6 vs PIT 3.2 1.7 -1.5
Wk 7 @ CAR 4.9 11.7 +6.8
Wk 8 vs ATL 5.6 0.0 -5.6
Wk 9 @ CHI 3.0 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Tez Johnson #156 in 1QB and #160 in Superflex, WR64 at his position. Age 24.

1QB

#156

WR64 · tier 35 · of 300

Superflex

#160

WR64 · tier 30 · of 307

  • Last season 78.4 pts 5.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 88% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 3.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 9% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

13.09

pick 152.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

13.08

half of simulations take him by pick 152

Draft range

12.04 - 15.03

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 9,286 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams
Scoring Half PPR
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Dynasty

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 13.08 in 56% of simulations

Pick 152 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 14.05, where he is available in 34% of simulations.

Slot 8's remaining turns: 13.08 56% · 14.05 34% · 15.08 11%

The middle half of simulations take him between 12.10 and 14.06.

Tez Johnson still on the board
PickAvailable
13.06 60%
13.07 58%
13.08 56%
13.09 53%
13.10 51%
13.11 48%
13.12 45%
14.01 42%
14.02 40%
14.03 38%
14.04 36%
14.05 34%
14.06 32%
14.07 30%
14.08 28%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Tez Johnson was selected at each pick, 12.04-12.05 through 15.02-15.03. He goes earlier than this window in 8%, later in 8%, undrafted in 7%.
Draft position distribution for Tez Johnson
PickShare of simulationsCount
12.04-12.055%488 of 10000 simulations
12.06-12.075%471 of 10000 simulations
12.08-12.095%463 of 10000 simulations
12.10-12.114%427 of 10000 simulations
12.12-13.015%467 of 10000 simulations
13.02-13.035%450 of 10000 simulations
13.04-13.054%432 of 10000 simulations
13.06-13.074%447 of 10000 simulations
13.08-13.095%507 of 10000 simulations
13.10-13.116%562 of 10000 simulations
13.12-14.015%508 of 10000 simulations
14.02-14.034%443 of 10000 simulations
14.04-14.054%404 of 10000 simulations
14.06-14.074%383 of 10000 simulations
14.08-14.094%366 of 10000 simulations
14.10-14.113%326 of 10000 simulations
14.12-15.013%270 of 10000 simulations
15.02-15.033%252 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 9286 simulations in which Tez Johnson was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Tez Johnson was selected in 9286 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
November 5, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
Baseline
rank

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.