DET · Bye 6
Jameson Williams
LMD WR34 for Week 4 · 10.2 projected Full PPR points · WR35 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 10.2 points this week, WR34. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 13% · Top 24: 29% of simulated weeks. Down 1 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR34
100th by projected points
Rest of season
WR35
68th by projected points
Projected
10.2
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
13%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 29% at WR
Movement
↓ 1
WR33 in Week 3, WR34 now
Should you start Jameson Williams in Week 4?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Jameson Williams WR34 for Week 4, just outside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 29% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.36 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.49 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.01 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.09 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Lions’ Jameson Williams Hit With Significant Fine for Actions in Win Over Jets
newsweek.com ·
-
Jameson Williams’ third fine adds to Lions’ growing NFL penalty total
mlive.com ·
-
NFL Hits Jameson Williams With Hefty Fine
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Jameson Williams fined for the third time this season by the NFL.
al.com ·
-
Jameson Williams knows what Lions are up against in surging Panthers QB
mlive.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jameson Williams by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Jameson Williams has averaged -1.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NO | 8.3 | 8.5 | +0.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ BUF | 8.8 | 5.3 | -3.5 |
| Wk 3 | vs NYJ | 10.7 | 8.9 | -1.8 |
| Wk 4 | @ CAR | 10.2 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR23. For the rest of the season LMD has him 12 spots lower, at WR35.
Preseason market: WR23 · ADP 45.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR35 −12
LMD has him 12 spots lower than his WR23 draft price.
Week 4
WR34 −11
LMD has him 11 spots lower than his WR23 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR23 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 144.1 points this season, WR35. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 16% of simulated seasons. That is 10.4 a game over 14 remaining games.
Per game
10.4 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 16%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jameson Williams #54 in 1QB and #61 in Superflex, WR17 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#54
WR17 · tier 15 · of 297
Superflex
#61
WR17 · tier 12 · of 303
- Last season 187.4 pts 11.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 91% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.0 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
5.09
pick 56.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
5.08
half of simulations take him by pick 56
Draft range
4.07 - 6.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.08 in 53% of simulations
Pick 56 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 6.05, where he is available in 25% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 5.08 53% · 6.05 25% · 7.08 2% · 8.05 <1% · 9.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.01 and 6.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 5.06 | 60% |
| 5.07 | 56% |
| 5.08 | 53% |
| 5.09 | 50% |
| 5.10 | 46% |
| 5.11 | 43% |
| 5.12 | 40% |
| 6.01 | 36% |
| 6.02 | 34% |
| 6.03 | 31% |
| 6.04 | 28% |
| 6.05 | 25% |
| 6.06 | 23% |
| 6.07 | 20% |
| 6.08 | 18% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.07-4.08 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09-4.10 | 5% | 489 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11-4.12 | 6% | 550 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01-5.02 | 6% | 583 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03-5.04 | 6% | 632 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05-5.06 | 7% | 665 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07-5.08 | 7% | 657 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09-5.10 | 7% | 655 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11-5.12 | 7% | 674 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01-6.02 | 6% | 567 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03-6.04 | 6% | 568 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05-6.06 | 5% | 465 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07-6.08 | 4% | 444 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09-6.10 | 4% | 423 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11-6.12 | 3% | 309 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Jameson Williams was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Christian Watson WR · GB 3%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Davante Adams WR · LAR 3%
Usually taken just after
- Christian Watson WR · GB 3%
- David Montgomery RB · HOU 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jameson Williams was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.