NYG · Bye 8
Malik Nabers
LMD WR24 for Week 4 · 11.8 projected Full PPR points · WR29 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 11.8 points this week, WR24. Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 19% · Top 24: 35% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Down 2 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR24
79th by projected points
Rest of season
WR29
56th by projected points
Projected
11.8
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
19%
Top 3: 5% · Top 24: 35% at WR
Movement
↓ 2
WR22 in Week 3, WR24 now
Should you start Malik Nabers in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Malik Nabers WR24 for Week 4, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 35% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.16 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.75 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.43 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+0.74 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
How Odell Beckham Jr.'s return to Giants helped Malik Nabers more than anyone
Sporting News ·
-
Odell Beckham's Jr.'s Impact on Malik Nabers Before Giants Release Revealed in New NFL Rumors
Bleacher Report ·
-
Malik Nabers Reveals How He Really Feels About New Giants QB J.J. McCarthy
bundle.app ·
-
Malik Nabers’ new mindset has him ‘waiting on that day’ for his Giants breakout
nypost.com ·
-
Fantasy football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em WR in Week 4: Don't panic on Malik Nabers despite recent struggles
CBS Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Malik Nabers by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Malik Nabers has averaged -4.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DAL | 10.7 | 12.9 | +2.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ LAR | 12.2 | 1.1 | -11.1 |
| Wk 3 | vs TEN | 12.5 | 7.6 | -4.9 |
| Wk 4 | vs ARI | 11.8 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR15. For the rest of the season LMD has him 14 spots lower, at WR29.
Preseason market: WR15 · ADP 27.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR29 −14
LMD has him 14 spots lower than his WR15 draft price.
Week 4
WR24 −9
LMD has him 9 spots lower than his WR15 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR15 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 159.8 points this season, WR29. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 6% · Top 24: 36% of simulated seasons. That is 11.7 a game over 14 remaining games. Listed questionable. Down 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
11.7 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 6% · Top 24: 36%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Malik Nabers #111 in 1QB and #115 in Superflex, WR46 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#111
WR46 · tier 25 · of 297
Superflex
#115
WR46 · tier 20 · of 303
- Last season 48.1 pts 12.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 48% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 9.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 30% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.05
pick 29.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.06
half of simulations take him by pick 30
Draft range
2.04 - 4.04
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.06 in 53% of simulations
Pick 30 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 4.07, where he is available in 5% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 3.06 53% · 4.07 5% · 5.06 <1% · 6.07 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.12 and 3.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.04 | 62% |
| 3.05 | 57% |
| 3.06 | 53% |
| 3.07 | 48% |
| 3.08 | 43% |
| 3.09 | 39% |
| 3.10 | 34% |
| 3.11 | 29% |
| 3.12 | 25% |
| 4.01 | 21% |
| 4.02 | 17% |
| 4.03 | 14% |
| 4.04 | 11% |
| 4.05 | 8% |
| 4.06 | 6% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.04-2.05 | 3% | 282 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.06-2.07 | 3% | 275 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.08-2.09 | 4% | 351 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10-2.11 | 6% | 551 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12-3.01 | 7% | 689 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02-3.03 | 8% | 786 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04-3.05 | 9% | 893 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06-3.07 | 10% | 959 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08-3.09 | 9% | 936 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10-3.11 | 9% | 919 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12-4.01 | 8% | 781 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02-4.03 | 6% | 634 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 2% | 214 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Malik Nabers was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 5%
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
- Jeremiyah Love RB · ARI 4%
- Rashee Rice WR · KC 4%
Usually taken just after
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 5%
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 5%
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 4%
- Rashee Rice WR · KC 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Malik Nabers was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.