HOU · Bye 8
Nico Collins
LMD WR10 for Week 4 · 15.3 projected Full PPR points · WR8 rest of season
Questionable
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 15.3 points this week, WR10. Top 3: 12% · Top 12: 30% · Top 24: 46% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 2 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR10
33rd by projected points
Rest of season
WR8
16th by projected points
Projected
15.3
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
30%
Top 3: 12% · Top 24: 46% at WR
Movement
↑ 2
WR12 in Week 3, WR10 now
Should you start Nico Collins in Week 4?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Nico Collins WR10 for Week 4, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 46% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.85 pts
- Recent usage & efficiencyLimited data
- Slight positive+0.24 pts
- AvailabilityUnresolved injury
- No mean changeWider range0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.04 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.32 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
What is Texans WR Nico Collins fantasy value in Week 4 vs Dallas Cowboys?
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Cowboys-Texans injury reports: Will Dallas get a look at Houston WR Nico Collins in Week 4?
dallasnews.com ·
-
Nico Collins injury update: Texans WR gets major news ahead of Week 4 game vs Cowboys
sportskeeda.com ·
-
Texans' Nico Collins set to return; Joey Porter Jr. may go for Cowboys
Reuters ·
-
WR Nico Collins set to return for Texans, Joey Porter Jr. may go for Cowboys
lufkindailynews.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Nico Collins by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Nico Collins has averaged +7.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BUF | 13.9 | 21.2 | +7.3 |
| Wk 2 | vs CIN | 15.0 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | @ IND | 14.0 | Pending | — |
| Wk 4 | vs DAL | 15.3 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR10. For the rest of the season LMD has him 2 spots higher, at WR8.
Preseason market: WR10 · ADP 19.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR8 +2
LMD has him 2 spots higher than his WR10 draft price.
Week 4
WR10 Even
Level with his WR10 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR10 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 216.5 points this season, WR8. Top 3: 13% · Top 12: 56% · Top 24: 89% of simulated seasons. That is 15.6 a game over 14 remaining games. Listed questionable. Up 2 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
15.6 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 13% · Top 12: 56% · Top 24: 89%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Nico Collins #40 in 1QB and #49 in Superflex, WR12 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#40
WR12 · tier 13 · of 297
Superflex
#49
WR12 · tier 11 · of 303
- Last season 190.7 pts 12.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 83% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 8.0 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 24% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
2.11
pick 22.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
2.11
half of simulations take him by pick 23
Draft range
1.12 - 3.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 2.11 in 54% of simulations
Pick 23 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 3.02, where he is available in 37% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 2.11 54% · 3.02 37% · 4.11 <1% · 5.02 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.05 and 3.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 2.09 | 64% |
| 2.10 | 60% |
| 2.11 | 54% |
| 2.12 | 49% |
| 3.01 | 43% |
| 3.02 | 37% |
| 3.03 | 32% |
| 3.04 | 27% |
| 3.05 | 23% |
| 3.06 | 19% |
| 3.07 | 16% |
| 3.08 | 12% |
| 3.09 | 10% |
| 3.10 | 7% |
| 3.11 | 5% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 1.12 | 3% | 251 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.01 | 3% | 302 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.02 | 3% | 282 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.03 | 3% | 294 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.04 | 3% | 309 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.05 | 3% | 336 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.06 | 3% | 287 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.07 | 3% | 342 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.08 | 3% | 346 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.09 | 4% | 399 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10 | 5% | 520 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11 | 6% | 598 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 6% | 599 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 5% | 543 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 5% | 500 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 4% | 413 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 4% | 405 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 4% | 363 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 3% | 328 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 3% | 267 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Nico Collins was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 5%
- Kenneth Walker III RB · KC 5%
- Drake London WR · ATL 4%
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 4%
Usually taken just after
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 5%
- George Pickens WR · DAL 4%
- Brock Bowers TE · LV 4%
- Jeremiyah Love RB · ARI 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Nico Collins was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.