GB · Bye 11
Matthew Golden
LMD WR19 for Week 4 · 12.9 projected Full PPR points · WR20 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 12.9 points this week, WR19. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 22% · Top 24: 42% of simulated weeks. Up 5 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR19
69th by projected points
Rest of season
WR20
40th by projected points
Projected
12.9
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
22%
Top 3: 6% · Top 24: 42% at WR
Movement
↑ 5
WR24 in Week 3, WR19 now
Should you start Matthew Golden in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Matthew Golden WR19 for Week 4, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 42% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.72 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.69 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.02 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.33 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
ADP UPDATE
Matthew Golden's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 99.2 to 94.5 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Matthew Golden has averaged +6.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ MIN | 7.1 | 15.5 | +8.4 |
| Wk 2 | @ NYJ | 8.5 | 9.8 | +1.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs ATL | 11.7 | 21.0 | +9.3 |
| Wk 4 | @ TB | 12.9 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR48. For the rest of the season LMD has him 28 spots higher, at WR20.
Preseason market: WR48 · ADP 101.3
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR20 +28
LMD has him 28 spots higher than his WR48 draft price.
Week 4
WR19 +29
LMD has him 29 spots higher than his WR48 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR48 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 182.0 points this season, WR20. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 65% of simulated seasons. That is 13.0 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
13.0 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 65%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Matthew Golden #168 in 1QB and #174 in Superflex, WR70 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#168
WR70 · tier 39 · of 297
Superflex
#174
WR70 · tier 33 · of 303
- Last season 55.5 pts 4.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 82% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.07
pick 139.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.03
half of simulations take him by pick 135
Draft range
11.01 - 15.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,370 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.03 in 54% of simulations
Pick 135 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 13.10, where he is available in 26% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 12.03 54% · 13.10 26% · 14.03 24% · 15.10 8%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.06 and 12.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.01 | 59% |
| 12.02 | 56% |
| 12.03 | 54% |
| 12.04 | 51% |
| 12.05 | 48% |
| 12.06 | 45% |
| 12.07 | 43% |
| 12.08 | 40% |
| 12.09 | 37% |
| 12.10 | 35% |
| 12.11 | 33% |
| 12.12 | 30% |
| 13.01 | 28% |
| 13.02 | 28% |
| 13.03 | 28% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.01-11.03 | 8% | 824 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.06 | 8% | 785 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.09 | 9% | 886 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.12 | 9% | 876 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.03 | 8% | 808 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.06 | 8% | 811 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.09 | 7% | 748 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.12 | 7% | 712 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.03 | <1% | 61 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.06 | <1% | 84 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.09 | <1% | 82 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.12 | <1% | 90 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.03 | 2% | 163 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.06 | 2% | 187 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.09 | 2% | 188 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.12 | 2% | 224 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 2% | 240 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9370 simulations in which Matthew Golden was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 3%
- Xavier Worthy WR · KC 2%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
- Xavier Worthy WR · KC 2%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 2%
- Baker Mayfield QB · TB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Matthew Golden was selected in 9370 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.