NO · Bye 8 · Rookie
Bryce Lance
Bryce Lance comes off the board at 5.07 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie mock drafts, with a median of 5.07.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulated ADP
5.07
pick 54.9 overall, on average
Median pick
5.07
half of simulations take him by pick 55
Draft range
5.02 - 5.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 3,125 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.07 in 86% of simulations
Pick 55 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.04 and 5.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 5.05 | 91% |
| 5.06 | 88% |
| 5.07 | 86% |
| 5.08 | 84% |
| 5.09 | 81% |
| 5.10 | 78% |
| 5.11 | 75% |
| 5.12 | 72% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 5.02 | 2% | 217 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03 | 2% | 229 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04 | 2% | 246 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05 | 3% | 282 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06 | 2% | 219 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07 | 2% | 232 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08 | 3% | 280 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09 | 3% | 302 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10 | 3% | 295 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11 | 3% | 304 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 3125 simulations in which Bryce Lance was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Matthew Caldwell QB · LAR 3%
- Athan Kaliakmanis QB · WAS 3%
- Camden Brown WR · DAL 3%
- Elijah Tau-Tolliver RB · BAL 3%
Usually taken just after
- Cameron Dorner WR · NE 4%
- Jeff Caldwell WR · KC 3%
- Camden Brown WR · DAL 3%
- Elijah Tau-Tolliver RB · BAL 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.
Bryce Lance was selected in 3125 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.
We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.1
- Generated
- August 20, 2026
- Player dataset
- sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
- Baseline
- rank
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Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.