JAX · Bye 7
Travis Hunter
LMD WR95 for Week 4 · 4.7 projected Full PPR points · WR67 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.7 points this week, WR95. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 6% of simulated weeks. Down 28 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR95
209th by projected points
Rest of season
WR67
136th by projected points
Projected
4.7
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
2%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 6% at WR
Movement
↓ 28
WR67 in Week 3, WR95 now
Should you start Travis Hunter in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Travis Hunter WR95 for Week 4, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 6% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
WR95 vs WR56 -39
LMD has him WR95. The fantasy draft market has him WR56, 39 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Strong positive+4.28 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No recent stats
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Strong negative-2.15 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.28 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CLE | 3.9 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | @ DEN | 2.6 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | vs NE | 7.1 | Pending | — |
| Wk 4 | @ CIN | 4.7 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 96.3 points this season, WR67. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1% of simulated seasons. That is 4.6 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 18 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
4.6 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Travis Hunter #191 in 1QB and #196 in Superflex, WR82 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#191
WR82 · tier 42 · of 297
Superflex
#196
WR82 · tier 36 · of 303
- Last season 49.8 pts 7.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 41% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 18% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.01
pick 133.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.10
half of simulations take him by pick 130
Draft range
10.08 - 14.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,718 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.10 in 53% of simulations
Pick 130 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 12.03, where he is available in 39% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 11.10 53% · 12.03 39% · 13.10 16% · 14.03 14% · 15.10 4%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.01 and 12.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.08 | 58% |
| 11.09 | 55% |
| 11.10 | 53% |
| 11.11 | 50% |
| 11.12 | 47% |
| 12.01 | 44% |
| 12.02 | 41% |
| 12.03 | 39% |
| 12.04 | 37% |
| 12.05 | 34% |
| 12.06 | 32% |
| 12.07 | 29% |
| 12.08 | 27% |
| 12.09 | 25% |
| 12.10 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.08-10.09 | 5% | 494 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 5% | 539 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 5% | 537 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 5% | 549 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 5% | 533 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 6% | 614 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 5% | 538 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 6% | 567 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 6% | 550 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.03 | 5% | 483 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.05 | 5% | 510 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 4% | 439 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 4% | 411 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 4% | 358 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 2% | 182 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 42 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 44 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 29 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 47 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 44 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | <1% | 65 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | <1% | 98 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | <1% | 86 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | <1% | 85 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9718 simulations in which Travis Hunter was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
- Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 2%
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 2%
- Xavier Worthy WR · KC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 2%
- KC Concepcion WR · CLE 2%
- Josh Downs WR · IND 2%
- Xavier Worthy WR · KC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Travis Hunter was selected in 9718 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.