BAL · Bye 13
Zay Flowers
Zay Flowers comes off the board at 4.11 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 4.11.
12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulated ADP
4.11
pick 47.2 overall, on average
Median pick
4.11
half of simulations take him by pick 47
Draft range
3.08 - 6.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.11 in 51% of simulations
Pick 47 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 5.02, where he is available in 42% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 4.11 51% · 5.02 42% · 6.11 2% · 7.02 1% · 8.11 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.03 and 5.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.09 | 58% |
| 4.10 | 55% |
| 4.11 | 51% |
| 4.12 | 48% |
| 5.01 | 45% |
| 5.02 | 42% |
| 5.03 | 38% |
| 5.04 | 35% |
| 5.05 | 33% |
| 5.06 | 30% |
| 5.07 | 27% |
| 5.08 | 24% |
| 5.09 | 21% |
| 5.10 | 19% |
| 5.11 | 17% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.08-3.09 | 4% | 363 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10-3.11 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12-4.01 | 4% | 448 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02-4.03 | 5% | 527 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04-4.05 | 6% | 574 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06-4.07 | 7% | 660 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08-4.09 | 6% | 626 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10-4.11 | 7% | 660 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12-5.01 | 6% | 635 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02-5.03 | 6% | 618 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04-5.05 | 6% | 574 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06-5.07 | 6% | 561 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08-5.09 | 5% | 488 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10-5.11 | 4% | 381 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12-6.01 | 4% | 370 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.02-6.03 | 3% | 279 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Zay Flowers was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
- Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 3%
- Davante Adams WR · LAR 3%
- Luther Burden WR · CHI 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
- Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 3%
- Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 3%
- Davante Adams WR · LAR 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.
Zay Flowers was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.
We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.1
- Generated
- August 20, 2026
- Player dataset
- sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
- Baseline
- rank
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Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.