BAL · Bye 13
Zay Flowers
LMD WR30 for Week 4 · 10.5 projected Full PPR points · WR14 rest of season
Questionable · projection includes a 71% chance of playing
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 10.5 points this week, WR30. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 35% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable (Hamstring, Not injury related - resting player). The projection and the Top 3, 12 and 24 odds include a 71% chance he plays; the weeks he sits count as zero. Down 23 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR30
93rd by projected points
Rest of season
WR14
25th by projected points
Projected
10.5
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
21%
Top 3: 6% · Top 24: 35% at WR
Movement
↓ 23
WR7 in Week 3, WR30 now
Should you start Zay Flowers in Week 4?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Zay Flowers WR30 for Week 4, just outside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 35% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
WR30 vs WR14 -16
LMD has him WR30. The fantasy draft market has him WR14, 16 places higher.
Our projection is lower than the outside forecast.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.35 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.20 pts
- AvailabilityQuestionable
- Strong negative-4.37 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.10 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.07 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Zay Flowers and more WR injury updates for Week 4
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Zay Flowers a full participant at practice
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Ravens: Zay Flowers nearing full-go status after testing hamstring injury vs. Cowboys
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Zay Flowers helped the Ravens pull out a 34–31 win in Rio on Sunday.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Ravens Week 3 injury report: all eyes on Zay Flowers vs. Cowboys
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Zay Flowers by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Zay Flowers has averaged +10.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ IND | 10.8 | 26.0 | +15.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs NO | 11.0 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | @ DAL | 10.6 | 15.4 | +4.8 |
| Wk 4 | vs TEN | 10.5 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR13. For the rest of the season LMD has him 1 spot lower, at WR14.
Preseason market: WR13 · ADP 24.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR14 −1
LMD has him 1 spot lower than his WR13 draft price.
Week 4
WR30 −17
LMD has him 17 spots lower than his WR13 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR13 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 203.3 points this season, WR14. Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 44% · Top 24: 82% of simulated seasons. That is 14.9 a game over 13.707 remaining games. Listed questionable (Hamstring, Not injury related - resting player). The projection and the Top 3, 12 and 24 odds include a 71% chance he plays; the weeks he sits count as zero. Down 2 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
14.9 / game
Over 13.707 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 44% · Top 24: 82%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Zay Flowers #25 in 1QB and #33 in Superflex, WR8 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#25
WR8 · tier 10 · of 297
Superflex
#33
WR8 · tier 8 · of 303
- Last season 200.3 pts 11.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 99% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 27% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.11
pick 47.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.12
half of simulations take him by pick 48
Draft range
3.10 - 6.01
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.12 in 50% of simulations
Pick 48 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 5.01, where he is available in 46% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 4.12 50% · 5.01 46% · 6.12 <1% · 7.01 <1% · 8.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.05 and 5.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.10 | 58% |
| 4.11 | 54% |
| 4.12 | 50% |
| 5.01 | 46% |
| 5.02 | 42% |
| 5.03 | 37% |
| 5.04 | 34% |
| 5.05 | 30% |
| 5.06 | 27% |
| 5.07 | 24% |
| 5.08 | 21% |
| 5.09 | 18% |
| 5.10 | 16% |
| 5.11 | 14% |
| 5.12 | 12% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.10-3.11 | 3% | 318 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12-4.01 | 4% | 377 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02-4.03 | 5% | 511 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04-4.05 | 6% | 632 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06-4.07 | 7% | 688 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08-4.09 | 7% | 713 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10-4.11 | 8% | 843 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12-5.01 | 8% | 844 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02-5.03 | 8% | 810 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04-5.05 | 7% | 666 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06-5.07 | 6% | 578 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08-5.09 | 5% | 501 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10-5.11 | 4% | 409 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12-6.01 | 3% | 335 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Zay Flowers was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Luther Burden III WR · CHI 3%
- Davante Adams WR · LAR 3%
- Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 3%
- Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 3%
Usually taken just after
- Luther Burden III WR · CHI 3%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
- Davante Adams WR · LAR 3%
- D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Zay Flowers was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.