KC · Bye 5
Xavier Worthy
LMD WR50 for Week 4 · 8.1 projected Full PPR points · WR59 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.1 points this week, WR50. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 7% · Top 24: 19% of simulated weeks. Down 7 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR50
133rd by projected points
Rest of season
WR59
117th by projected points
Projected
8.1
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
7%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 19% at WR
Movement
↓ 7
WR43 in Week 3, WR50 now
Should you start Xavier Worthy in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Xavier Worthy WR50 for Week 4, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 19% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.24 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.19 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.39 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight positive+0.25 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Xavier Worthy is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Xavier Worthy's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 97.8 to 93.5 over the last 7 days.
-
Xavier Worthy takes part in practice Friday
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Xavier Worthy by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Xavier Worthy has averaged +0.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DEN | 6.0 | 4.8 | -1.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs IND | 5.7 | 13.5 | +7.8 |
| Wk 3 | @ MIA | 8.9 | 4.0 | -4.9 |
| Wk 4 | @ LV | 8.1 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR49. For the rest of the season LMD has him 10 spots lower, at WR59.
Preseason market: WR49 · ADP 107.3
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR59 −10
LMD has him 10 spots lower than his WR49 draft price.
Week 4
WR50 −1
LMD has him 1 spot lower than his WR49 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR49 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 108.8 points this season, WR59. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1% of simulated seasons. That is 8.1 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
8.1 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Xavier Worthy #113 in 1QB and #118 in Superflex, WR47 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#113
WR47 · tier 26 · of 297
Superflex
#118
WR47 · tier 21 · of 303
- Last season 88.9 pts 6.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 87% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.06
pick 138.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.02
half of simulations take him by pick 134
Draft range
10.12 - 15.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,432 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.02 in 54% of simulations
Pick 134 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 13.11, where he is available in 25% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 12.02 54% · 13.11 25% · 14.02 23% · 15.11 7%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.05 and 12.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.12 | 59% |
| 12.01 | 57% |
| 12.02 | 54% |
| 12.03 | 51% |
| 12.04 | 48% |
| 12.05 | 46% |
| 12.06 | 43% |
| 12.07 | 40% |
| 12.08 | 38% |
| 12.09 | 35% |
| 12.10 | 33% |
| 12.11 | 31% |
| 12.12 | 29% |
| 13.01 | 27% |
| 13.02 | 27% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.12-11.02 | 8% | 795 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.05 | 9% | 877 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.08 | 8% | 798 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.11 | 8% | 838 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.02 | 8% | 823 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.05 | 8% | 842 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.08 | 7% | 739 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.11 | 7% | 676 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.02 | 2% | 208 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.05 | <1% | 69 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.08 | <1% | 77 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.11 | <1% | 75 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.02 | 1% | 144 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.05 | 2% | 173 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.08 | 2% | 187 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.11 | 2% | 209 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.02 | 3% | 289 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9432 simulations in which Xavier Worthy was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Matthew Golden WR · GB 2%
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
- Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 2%
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 2%
Usually taken just after
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 2%
- Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 2%
- Matthew Golden WR · GB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Xavier Worthy was selected in 9432 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.