CAR · Bye 5
Tetairoa McMillan
LMD WR16 for Week 4 · 13.5 projected Full PPR points · WR19 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 13.5 points this week, WR16. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 24% · Top 24: 44% of simulated weeks. Down 3 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR16
62nd by projected points
Rest of season
WR19
39th by projected points
Projected
13.5
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
24%
Top 3: 6% · Top 24: 44% at WR
Movement
↓ 3
WR13 in Week 3, WR16 now
Should you start Tetairoa McMillan in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Tetairoa McMillan WR16 for Week 4, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 44% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.13 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.47 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.53 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+0.88 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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Panthers Rookie and Sophomore Power Rankings: Tetairoa McMillan, Princely Umanmielen & More
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Tetairoa McMillan had two catches in Sunday’s loss. The Panthers plan to fix that
newsobserver.com ·
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Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan is pushed out of bounds by Bears cornerback Malik Muhammad.
Sports Illustrated ·
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Tetairoa McMillan tries to get around Cam Lewis in Sunday's Bears win.
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Tetairoa McMillan by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Tetairoa McMillan has averaged -2.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CHI | 12.0 | 10.5 | -1.5 |
| Wk 2 | @ ATL | 11.1 | 15.1 | +4.0 |
| Wk 3 | @ CLE | 13.5 | 3.7 | -9.8 |
| Wk 4 | vs DET | 13.5 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR17. For the rest of the season LMD has him 2 spots lower, at WR19.
Preseason market: WR17 · ADP 31.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR19 −2
LMD has him 2 spots lower than his WR17 draft price.
Week 4
WR16 +1
LMD has him 1 spot higher than his WR17 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR17 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 182.6 points this season, WR19. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 22% · Top 24: 65% of simulated seasons. That is 13.6 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
13.6 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 22% · Top 24: 65%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tetairoa McMillan #17 in 1QB and #25 in Superflex, WR5 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#17
WR5 · tier 8 · of 297
Superflex
#25
WR5 · tier 7 · of 303
- Last season 178.4 pts 10.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 26% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.01
pick 36.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.02
half of simulations take him by pick 38
Draft range
2.12 - 4.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.02 in 51% of simulations
Pick 38 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 5.11, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 4.02 51% · 5.11 <1% · 6.02 <1% · 7.11 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.07 and 4.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.12 | 60% |
| 4.01 | 55% |
| 4.02 | 51% |
| 4.03 | 46% |
| 4.04 | 41% |
| 4.05 | 36% |
| 4.06 | 32% |
| 4.07 | 28% |
| 4.08 | 24% |
| 4.09 | 21% |
| 4.10 | 17% |
| 4.11 | 14% |
| 4.12 | 11% |
| 5.01 | 8% |
| 5.02 | 6% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.12-3.01 | 3% | 335 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02-3.03 | 4% | 369 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04-3.05 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06-3.07 | 5% | 496 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08-3.09 | 6% | 642 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10-3.11 | 8% | 815 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12-4.01 | 9% | 902 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02-4.03 | 10% | 952 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04-4.05 | 9% | 936 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06-4.07 | 8% | 794 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08-4.09 | 7% | 731 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10-4.11 | 6% | 611 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12 | 2% | 248 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Tetairoa McMillan was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 4%
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
- Drake Maye QB · NE 4%
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 4%
Usually taken just after
- Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 4%
- Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 4%
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 4%
- Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tetairoa McMillan was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.