CIN · Bye 6
Tee Higgins
LMD WR18 for Week 4 · 13.2 projected Full PPR points · WR18 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 13.2 points this week, WR18. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 23% · Top 24: 43% of simulated weeks. Up 1 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR18
65th by projected points
Rest of season
WR18
38th by projected points
Projected
13.2
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
23%
Top 3: 6% · Top 24: 43% at WR
Movement
↑ 1
WR19 in Week 3, WR18 now
Should you start Tee Higgins in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Tee Higgins WR18 for Week 4, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 43% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.21 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.31 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.07 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.15 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Tee Higgins delivers defiant message as Bengals look to bounce back
yardbarker.com ·
-
How Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins and the rest of the Bengals offense graded in Week 3 against the Steelers
cleveland.com ·
-
Tee Higgins defends Joe Burrow after late fumble seals Bengals’ first loss of the season to Steelers
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Tee Higgins, Amon-Ra St. Brown each fined four times for obscene gestures, illegal celebrations
NBC Sports ·
-
NFL fines Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins for ‘people's elbow' celebration
nbcconnecticut.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Tee Higgins by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Tee Higgins has averaged +4.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs TB | 10.3 | 8.9 | -1.4 |
| Wk 2 | @ HOU | 9.3 | 14.5 | +5.2 |
| Wk 3 | @ PIT | 12.1 | 21.0 | +8.9 |
| Wk 4 | vs JAX | 13.2 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR19. For the rest of the season LMD has him 1 spot higher, at WR18.
Preseason market: WR19 · ADP 37.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR18 +1
LMD has him 1 spot higher than his WR19 draft price.
Week 4
WR18 +1
LMD has him 1 spot higher than his WR19 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR19 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 186.2 points this season, WR18. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 69% of simulated seasons. That is 13.4 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
13.4 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 69%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tee Higgins #60 in 1QB and #65 in Superflex, WR20 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#60
WR20 · tier 16 · of 297
Superflex
#65
WR20 · tier 13 · of 303
- Last season 182.1 pts 12.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 79% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 20% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.08
pick 32.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.09
half of simulations take him by pick 33
Draft range
2.08 - 4.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.09 in 53% of simulations
Pick 33 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 9, the same seat picks again at 4.04, where he is available in 22% of simulations.
Slot 9's remaining turns: 3.09 53% · 4.04 22% · 5.09 <1% · 6.04 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.03 and 4.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.07 | 62% |
| 3.08 | 58% |
| 3.09 | 53% |
| 3.10 | 49% |
| 3.11 | 44% |
| 3.12 | 39% |
| 4.01 | 35% |
| 4.02 | 30% |
| 4.03 | 26% |
| 4.04 | 22% |
| 4.05 | 18% |
| 4.06 | 15% |
| 4.07 | 12% |
| 4.08 | 9% |
| 4.09 | 7% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.08 | 1% | 134 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.09 | 1% | 120 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10 | 2% | 177 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11 | 2% | 244 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 2% | 236 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 3% | 254 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 3% | 304 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 3% | 286 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 3% | 345 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 3% | 344 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 4% | 379 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 4% | 426 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 5% | 453 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 5% | 458 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 4% | 438 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 4% | 435 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 5% | 465 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 4% | 429 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 4% | 402 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 4% | 390 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 3% | 328 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 3% | 301 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 3% | 259 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Tee Higgins was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 4%
- Josh Allen QB · BUF 4%
- Chris Olave WR · NO 4%
Usually taken just after
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 4%
- DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 4%
- Chris Olave WR · NO 4%
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tee Higgins was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.