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WR

LV · Bye 13

Jalen Nailor

LMD WR75 for Week 4 · 4.4 projected Half PPR points · WR103 rest of season

Regular season

Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 4.4 points this week, WR75. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 7% of simulated weeks. Up 2 since Week 3.

Week 4

WR75

183rd by projected points

Rest of season

WR103

197th by projected points

Projected

4.4

week 4, Half PPR

Top 12

2%

Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 7% at WR

Movement

↑ 2

WR77 in Week 3, WR75 now

Should you start Jalen Nailor in Week 4?

Bench

Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Jalen Nailor WR75 for Week 4, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 7% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

Half PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All WR rankings · Projected points board

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 3 completed games Jalen Nailor has averaged -2.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Jalen Nailor, Half PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 vs MIA 5.1 4.2 -0.9
Wk 2 @ LAC 4.9 1.4 -3.5
Wk 3 @ NO 4.7 2.1 -2.6
Wk 4 vs KC 4.4 Pending —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 58.6 points this season, WR103. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 4.5 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 11 since the Oct. 1 board.

Per game

4.5 / game

Over 14 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR

Market input

thin

Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Jalen Nailor #270 in 1QB and #278 in Superflex, WR109 at his position. Age 27.

1QB

#270

WR109 · tier 64 · of 297

Superflex

#278

WR109 · tier 57 · of 303

  • Last season 86.2 pts 5.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 80% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 2.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 10% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

15.04

pick 200.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

15.06

half of simulations take him by pick 202

Draft range

14.08 - 15.13

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 4,784 of them

Filters

League format

League size 14 teams
Scoring Half PPR
QB format 1QB
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 15.06 in 77% of simulations

Pick 202 overall in a 14-team draft · 10,000 simulations

The middle half of simulations take him between 15.01 and 15.10.

Jalen Nailor still on the board
PickAvailable
15.04 82%
15.05 80%
15.06 77%
15.07 74%
15.08 71%
15.09 68%
15.10 65%
15.11 63%
15.12 60%
15.13 57%
15.14 54%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Jalen Nailor was selected at each pick, 14.08 through 15.13. He goes earlier than this window in 5%, later in 2%, undrafted in 52%.
Draft position distribution for Jalen Nailor
PickShare of simulationsCount
14.08<1%64 of 10000 simulations
14.09<1%68 of 10000 simulations
14.10<1%65 of 10000 simulations
14.11<1%81 of 10000 simulations
14.12<1%81 of 10000 simulations
14.13<1%78 of 10000 simulations
14.141%111 of 10000 simulations
15.013%267 of 10000 simulations
15.022%247 of 10000 simulations
15.033%263 of 10000 simulations
15.043%256 of 10000 simulations
15.053%269 of 10000 simulations
15.063%299 of 10000 simulations
15.073%274 of 10000 simulations
15.083%283 of 10000 simulations
15.093%294 of 10000 simulations
15.103%274 of 10000 simulations
15.113%283 of 10000 simulations
15.123%278 of 10000 simulations
15.133%262 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 4784 simulations in which Jalen Nailor was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Jalen Nailor was selected in 4784 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
October 1, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
rank

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 14-team Half PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.