WAS · Bye 7
Terry McLaurin
LMD WR85 for Week 4 · 5.2 projected Full PPR points · WR41 rest of season
Questionable · projection includes a 71% chance of playing
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.2 points this week, WR85. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 10% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable (Hamstring). The projection and the Top 3, 12 and 24 odds include a 71% chance he plays; the weeks he sits count as zero. Down 51 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR85
193rd by projected points
Rest of season
WR41
83rd by projected points
Projected
5.2
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
4%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 10% at WR
Movement
↓ 51
WR34 in Week 3, WR85 now
Should you start Terry McLaurin in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Terry McLaurin WR85 for Week 4, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 10% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.19 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.07 pts
- AvailabilityQuestionable
- Strong negative-6.50 pts
- Outside projection
- Unavailable
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.07 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Fantasy football Week 4 inactives: Jayden Daniels, Rachaad White out, Terry McLaurin unlikely
The New York Times ·
-
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels Working To Return In Week 5; WR Terry McLaurin Could Miss Week 4
yardbarker.com ·
-
Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Everything You Need to Know about Late Terry McLaurin Hamstring Injury ahead London Game
yardbarker.com ·
-
Commanders get bad news on Terry McLaurin amid 'likely' Week 4 status
Sporting News ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Terry McLaurin by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Terry McLaurin has averaged +1.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PHI | 8.4 | 3.4 | -5.0 |
| Wk 2 | @ DAL | 7.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 |
| Wk 3 | vs SEA | 10.2 | 19.7 | +9.5 |
| Wk 4 | vs IND | 5.2 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR25. For the rest of the season LMD has him 16 spots lower, at WR41.
Preseason market: WR25 · ADP 48.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR41 −16
LMD has him 16 spots lower than his WR25 draft price.
Week 4
WR85 −60
LMD has him 60 spots lower than his WR25 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR25 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 133.1 points this season, WR41. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 9% of simulated seasons. That is 10.7 a game over 12.445 remaining games. Listed questionable (Hamstring). The projection and the Top 3, 12 and 24 odds include a 71% chance he plays; the weeks he sits count as zero. Down 14 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
10.7 / game
Over 12.445 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 9%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Terry McLaurin #155 in 1QB and #158 in Superflex, WR63 at his position. Age 30.
1QB
#155
WR63 · tier 34 · of 297
Superflex
#158
WR63 · tier 29 · of 303
- Last season 95.2 pts 9.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 79% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.7 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 23% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
5.11
pick 58.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
5.11
half of simulations take him by pick 59
Draft range
4.08 - 7.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.11 in 50% of simulations
Pick 59 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 6.02, where he is available in 40% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 5.11 50% · 6.02 40% · 7.11 2% · 8.02 <1% · 9.11 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.03 and 6.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 5.09 | 56% |
| 5.10 | 53% |
| 5.11 | 50% |
| 5.12 | 47% |
| 6.01 | 43% |
| 6.02 | 40% |
| 6.03 | 37% |
| 6.04 | 34% |
| 6.05 | 31% |
| 6.06 | 29% |
| 6.07 | 26% |
| 6.08 | 23% |
| 6.09 | 21% |
| 6.10 | 18% |
| 6.11 | 16% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.08-4.09 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10-4.11 | 5% | 458 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12-5.01 | 5% | 531 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02-5.03 | 5% | 547 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04-5.05 | 6% | 582 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06-5.07 | 7% | 656 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08-5.09 | 6% | 643 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10-5.11 | 7% | 665 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12-6.01 | 6% | 647 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.02-6.03 | 6% | 579 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.04-6.05 | 6% | 583 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.06-6.07 | 5% | 546 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08-6.09 | 5% | 493 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10-6.11 | 4% | 431 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 4% | 356 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02 | 2% | 156 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Terry McLaurin was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Christian Watson WR · GB 3%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Mike Evans WR · SF 3%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
Usually taken just after
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
- Christian Watson WR · GB 3%
- Carnell Tate WR · TEN 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Terry McLaurin was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.