DEN · Bye 10
Courtland Sutton
LMD WR37 for Week 4 · 9.6 projected Full PPR points · WR46 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 9.6 points this week, WR37. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 10% · Top 24: 25% of simulated weeks. Up 7 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR37
108th by projected points
Rest of season
WR46
91st by projected points
Projected
9.6
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
10%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 25% at WR
Movement
↑ 7
WR44 in Week 3, WR37 now
Should you start Courtland Sutton in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Courtland Sutton WR37 for Week 4, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 25% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.19 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.68 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.27 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.16 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Courtland Sutton says mile-high elevation whopped the Jaguars’ butt
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Broncos' Courtland Sutton explains why Jaylen Waddle's Week 2 breakout is 'tip of iceberg' for WR
yardbarker.com ·
-
AFC Notes: Josh Simmons, Courtland Sutton, Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs
yardbarker.com ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Courtland Sutton's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 61.4 to 64.4 over the last 7 days.
-
Bo Nix reacts to Courtland Sutton comparing him to a mountain lion
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Courtland Sutton by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Courtland Sutton has averaged -2.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ KC | 7.3 | 3.1 | -4.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs JAX | 7.9 | 5.5 | -2.4 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAR | 9.8 | 7.6 | -2.2 |
| Wk 4 | @ SF | 9.6 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR31. For the rest of the season LMD has him 15 spots lower, at WR46.
Preseason market: WR31 · ADP 61.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR46 −15
LMD has him 15 spots lower than his WR31 draft price.
Week 4
WR37 −6
LMD has him 6 spots lower than his WR31 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR31 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 128.1 points this season, WR46. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 5% of simulated seasons. That is 9.6 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 6 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
9.6 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 5%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Courtland Sutton #71 in 1QB and #74 in Superflex, WR25 at his position. Age 30.
1QB
#71
WR25 · tier 18 · of 297
Superflex
#74
WR25 · tier 14 · of 303
- Last season 182.7 pts 10.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 97% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 22% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
7.09
pick 81.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
7.09
half of simulations take him by pick 81
Draft range
6.04 - 9.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 7.09 in 51% of simulations
Pick 81 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 9, the same seat picks again at 8.04, where he is available in 32% of simulations.
Slot 9's remaining turns: 7.09 51% · 8.04 32% · 9.09 5% · 10.04 1% · 11.09 <1% · 12.04 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 6.11 and 8.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.07 | 57% |
| 7.08 | 54% |
| 7.09 | 51% |
| 7.10 | 49% |
| 7.11 | 46% |
| 7.12 | 43% |
| 8.01 | 40% |
| 8.02 | 37% |
| 8.03 | 35% |
| 8.04 | 32% |
| 8.05 | 30% |
| 8.06 | 27% |
| 8.07 | 25% |
| 8.08 | 23% |
| 8.09 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.04-6.05 | 3% | 327 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.06-6.07 | 4% | 378 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08-6.09 | 4% | 432 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10-6.11 | 4% | 431 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 5% | 518 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02-7.03 | 5% | 498 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 5% | 538 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 5% | 517 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 5% | 543 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 5% | 541 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 6% | 566 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 5% | 531 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 5% | 492 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 5% | 456 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 4% | 399 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 4% | 354 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 3% | 336 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 3% | 262 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Courtland Sutton was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 2%
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 2%
- Kyle Pitts TE · ATL 2%
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 2%
Usually taken just after
- DK Metcalf WR · PIT 2%
- Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI 2%
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 2%
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Courtland Sutton was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.