HOU · Bye 8
Jaylin Noel
LMD WR120 rest of season · 32.8 projected Half PPR points
Reserve list (IR)
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 32.8 points this season, WR120. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 5.5 a game over 5.904 remaining games. On a reserve list (IR), so the season projection prices the games he misses. Up 7 since the Nov. 4 board.
Rest of season
WR120
246th by projected points
Projected
32.8
rest of season, Half PPR
Top 12
0%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 0% at WR
Movement
↑ 7
WR127 on Nov. 4, WR120 now
Half PPR scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Jaylin Noel was ruled IR.
Let's Mock Draft ·
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Marvin Harrison Jr., Nico Collins Fantasy Outlook with Texans' Jaylin Noel Out for Year with Injury
Bleacher Report ·
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Fantasy Football Injury Update: Jaylin Noel Injury Improves Stock for Marvin Harrison Jr., Xavier Hutchinson
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jaylin Noel by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Jaylin Noel has averaged +3.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BUF | 3.5 | 6.3 | +2.8 |
| Wk 2 | vs CIN | 4.0 | 4.9 | +0.9 |
| Wk 3 | @ IND | 5.5 | 3.5 | -2.0 |
| Wk 4 | vs DAL | 3.3 | 10.4 | +7.1 |
| Wk 5 | @ TEN | 4.5 | 12.7 | +8.2 |
| Wk 6 | @ JAX | 5.6 | 18.7 | +13.1 |
| Wk 7 | vs NYG | 6.2 | 0.7 | -5.5 |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 32.8 points this season, WR120. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 5.5 a game over 5.904 remaining games. On a reserve list (IR), so the season projection prices the games he misses. Up 7 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
5.5 / game
Over 5.904 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jaylin Noel #194 in 1QB and #199 in Superflex, WR85 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#194
WR85 · tier 43 · of 300
Superflex
#199
WR85 · tier 37 · of 307
- Last season 55.4 pts 3.3 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 2.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 6% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.08
pick 175.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.08
half of simulations take him by pick 176
Draft range
15.04 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 2,568 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.08 in 88% of simulations
Pick 176 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.05 and 15.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.06 | 93% |
| 15.07 | 90% |
| 15.08 | 88% |
| 15.09 | 86% |
| 15.10 | 83% |
| 15.11 | 80% |
| 15.12 | 77% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | 2% | 238 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 230 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 237 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 237 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 223 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 3% | 267 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 246 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 3% | 288 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 3% | 282 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 3% | 309 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 2568 simulations in which Jaylin Noel was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Zavion Thomas WR · CHI 3%
- Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 3%
- Pat Bryant WR · DEN 3%
- Ricky Pearsall WR · SF 3%
Usually taken just after
- DeMario Douglas WR · NE 3%
- Ted Hurst III WR · TB 3%
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 3%
- Pat Bryant WR · DEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jaylin Noel was selected in 2568 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.