CHI · Bye 10
Luther Burden III
LMD WR21 for Week 4 · 12.3 projected Full PPR points · WR23 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 12.3 points this week, WR21. Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 20% · Top 24: 38% of simulated weeks. Up 9 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR21
72nd by projected points
Rest of season
WR23
47th by projected points
Projected
12.3
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
20%
Top 3: 5% · Top 24: 38% at WR
Movement
↑ 9
WR30 in Week 3, WR21 now
Should you start Luther Burden III in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Luther Burden III WR21 for Week 4, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 38% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.24 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.07 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.07 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.23 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Former Mizzou WR Luther Burden III scores opening touchdown on MNF vs. Eagles
saturdaydownsouth.com ·
-
Bears WR Luther Burden III’s painful reaction to Caleb Williams injury
yardbarker.com ·
-
STATUS
Luther Burden III is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Updated Luther Burden III Fantasy Outlook 2026: Bears WR Has Massive Upside After DJ Moore’s Exit
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Chicago Bears training camp report: Luther Burden III and Darnell Wright return to practice
effinghamdailynews.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Luther Burden III by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Luther Burden III has averaged +2.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CAR | 9.5 | 9.5 | 0.0 |
| Wk 2 | vs MIN | 9.0 | 6.2 | -2.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs PHI | 10.8 | 19.8 | +9.0 |
| Wk 4 | vs NYJ | 12.3 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR26. For the rest of the season LMD has him 3 spots higher, at WR23.
Preseason market: WR26 · ADP 50.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR23 +3
LMD has him 3 spots higher than his WR26 draft price.
Week 4
WR21 +5
LMD has him 5 spots higher than his WR26 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR26 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 167.9 points this season, WR23. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 10% · Top 24: 47% of simulated seasons. That is 12.1 a game over 14 remaining games.
Per game
12.1 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 10% · Top 24: 47%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Luther Burden III #94 in 1QB and #98 in Superflex, WR39 at his position. Age 22.
1QB
#94
WR39 · tier 22 · of 297
Superflex
#98
WR39 · tier 17 · of 303
- Last season 104.4 pts 7.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 88% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 13% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.08
pick 43.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.08
half of simulations take him by pick 44
Draft range
3.07 - 5.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.08 in 53% of simulations
Pick 44 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 5.05, where he is available in 17% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 4.08 53% · 5.05 17% · 6.08 <1% · 7.05 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.02 and 5.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.06 | 62% |
| 4.07 | 57% |
| 4.08 | 53% |
| 4.09 | 48% |
| 4.10 | 43% |
| 4.11 | 39% |
| 4.12 | 34% |
| 5.01 | 30% |
| 5.02 | 26% |
| 5.03 | 23% |
| 5.04 | 20% |
| 5.05 | 17% |
| 5.06 | 15% |
| 5.07 | 12% |
| 5.08 | 10% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.07-3.08 | 3% | 314 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09-3.10 | 4% | 436 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11-3.12 | 5% | 508 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01-4.02 | 6% | 589 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03-4.04 | 7% | 684 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05-4.06 | 8% | 806 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07-4.08 | 9% | 920 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09-4.10 | 9% | 933 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11-4.12 | 9% | 870 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01-5.02 | 7% | 727 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03-5.04 | 6% | 568 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05-5.06 | 5% | 467 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07-5.08 | 4% | 422 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Luther Burden III was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 3%
- Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 3%
- Zay Flowers WR · BAL 3%
- Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 3%
Usually taken just after
- Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 4%
- Zay Flowers WR · BAL 3%
- Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 3%
- Davante Adams WR · LAR 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Luther Burden III was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.