BUF · Bye 7 · Rookie
Skyler Bell
LMD WR148 for Week 4 · 2.1 projected Half PPR points
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 2.1 points this week, WR148. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1% of simulated weeks. Down 34 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR148
327th by projected points
Projected
2.1
week 4, Half PPR
Top 12
0%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 1% at WR
Movement
↓ 34
WR114 in Week 3, WR148 now
Should you start Skyler Bell in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Skyler Bell WR148 for Week 4, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 1% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Strong positive+2.06 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No recent stats
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Unavailable
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.01 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | vs LAC | 2.3 | Pending | — |
| Wk 4 | vs NE | 2.1 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Skyler Bell #246 in 1QB and #251 in Superflex, WR100 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 24.
1QB
#246
WR100 · tier 56 · of 297 · rookie 44 of 52
Superflex
#251
WR100 · tier 49 · of 303 · rookie 45 of 52
- Draft capital Round 4, pick 125 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.02
pick 38.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.03
half of simulations take him by pick 39
Draft range
3.03 - 4.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,274 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.03 in 57% of simulations
Pick 39 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.09 and 4.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.01 | 67% |
| 4.02 | 62% |
| 4.03 | 57% |
| 4.04 | 52% |
| 4.05 | 47% |
| 4.06 | 42% |
| 4.07 | 36% |
| 4.08 | 31% |
| 4.09 | 25% |
| 4.10 | 20% |
| 4.11 | 15% |
| 4.12 | 11% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.03 | 2% | 228 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 3% | 263 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 2% | 235 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 3% | 269 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 3% | 255 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 2% | 246 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 3% | 256 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 3% | 269 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 3% | 277 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 3% | 261 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 5% | 512 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 5% | 489 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 5% | 516 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 6% | 553 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 5% | 516 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 5% | 548 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 5% | 544 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 5% | 516 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 5% | 485 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9274 simulations in which Skyler Bell was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kaden Wetjen WR · PIT 5%
- Bryce Lance WR · NO 4%
- Colbie Young WR · CIN 4%
- Eli Heidenreich RB · PIT 4%
Usually taken just after
- Colbie Young WR · CIN 5%
- Drew Allar QB · PIT 4%
- Bryce Lance WR · NO 4%
- Kaden Wetjen WR · PIT 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Skyler Bell was selected in 9274 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.