SF · Bye 8
Mike Evans
LMD WR54 for Week 4 · 7.9 projected Full PPR points · WR31 rest of season
Questionable · projection includes a 71% chance of playing
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.9 points this week, WR54. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 23% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable (Ribs). The projection and the Top 3, 12 and 24 odds include a 71% chance he plays; the weeks he sits count as zero. Down 25 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR54
140th by projected points
Rest of season
WR31
62nd by projected points
Projected
7.9
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
11%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 23% at WR
Movement
↓ 25
WR29 in Week 3, WR54 now
Should you start Mike Evans in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Mike Evans WR54 for Week 4, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 23% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
WR54 vs WR30 -24
LMD has him WR54. The fantasy draft market has him WR30, 24 places higher.
Our projection is lower than the outside forecast.
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.82 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.71 pts
- AvailabilityQuestionable
- Strong negative-3.31 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.08 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.01 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Mike Evans hopes to play in Week 4
USA TODAY ·
-
49ers Add 6-Year Veteran WR Amid Mike Evans Injury
Yahoo Sports ·
-
49ers get mixed bag on injury updates for Mike Evans, Nick Bosa, and Trent Williams
Sporting News ·
-
49ers' John Lynch on chances Mike Evans plays vs. Broncos, Nick Bosa and Trent Williams updates
yardbarker.com ·
-
49ers Make Surprising Roster Move as Mike Evans’ Availability Remains in Question
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Mike Evans by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Mike Evans has averaged +4.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LAR | 8.1 | 16.9 | +8.8 |
| Wk 2 | vs MIA | 8.3 | 8.4 | +0.1 |
| Wk 3 | vs ARI | 7.9 | 12.4 | +4.5 |
| Wk 4 | vs DEN | 7.9 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR29. For the rest of the season LMD has him 2 spots lower, at WR31.
Preseason market: WR29 · ADP 57.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR31 −2
LMD has him 2 spots lower than his WR29 draft price.
Week 4
WR54 −25
LMD has him 25 spots lower than his WR29 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR29 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 152.8 points this season, WR31. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 27% of simulated seasons. That is 11.3 a game over 13.707 remaining games. Listed questionable (Ribs). The projection and the Top 3, 12 and 24 odds include a 71% chance he plays; the weeks he sits count as zero. Down 2 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
11.3 / game
Over 13.707 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 27%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Mike Evans #198 in 1QB and #206 in Superflex, WR87 at his position. Age 33.
1QB
#198
WR87 · tier 44 · of 297
Superflex
#206
WR87 · tier 37 · of 303
- Last season 69.8 pts 8.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 68% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 25% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
6.03
pick 62.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
6.03
half of simulations take him by pick 63
Draft range
4.11 - 7.06
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 6.03 in 52% of simulations
Pick 63 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 7.10, where he is available in 6% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 6.03 52% · 7.10 6% · 8.03 2% · 9.10 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.06 and 6.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 6.01 | 58% |
| 6.02 | 55% |
| 6.03 | 52% |
| 6.04 | 49% |
| 6.05 | 45% |
| 6.06 | 42% |
| 6.07 | 39% |
| 6.08 | 36% |
| 6.09 | 32% |
| 6.10 | 29% |
| 6.11 | 27% |
| 6.12 | 24% |
| 7.01 | 21% |
| 7.02 | 19% |
| 7.03 | 17% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.11-4.12 | 4% | 408 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01-5.02 | 4% | 420 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03-5.04 | 4% | 435 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05-5.06 | 4% | 434 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07-5.08 | 5% | 521 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09-5.10 | 6% | 555 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11-5.12 | 6% | 552 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01-6.02 | 6% | 592 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03-6.04 | 6% | 642 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05-6.06 | 6% | 640 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07-6.08 | 6% | 644 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09-6.10 | 6% | 595 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11-6.12 | 5% | 530 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 5% | 454 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03-7.04 | 4% | 398 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 3% | 332 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Mike Evans was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
- Jameson Williams WR · DET 3%
- DJ Moore WR · BUF 3%
Usually taken just after
- Carnell Tate WR · TEN 3%
- Terry McLaurin WR · WAS 3%
- Jameson Williams WR · DET 3%
- Christian Watson WR · GB 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Mike Evans was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.