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WR

CLE · Bye 11 · Rookie

KC Concepcion

LMD WR36 for Week 4 · 9.9 projected Full PPR points · WR40 rest of season

Regular season

Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 9.9 points this week, WR36. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 12% · Top 24: 26% of simulated weeks. Up 4 since Week 3.

Week 4

WR36

107th by projected points

Rest of season

WR40

76th by projected points

Projected

9.9

week 4, Full PPR

Top 12

12%

Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 26% at WR

Movement

↑ 4

WR40 in Week 3, WR36 now

Should you start KC Concepcion in Week 4?

Borderline

It is close. LMD ranks KC Concepcion WR36 for Week 4, just outside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 26% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All WR rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to KC Concepcion by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 3 completed games KC Concepcion has averaged -1.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for KC Concepcion, Full PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 @ JAX 6.1 7.8 +1.7
Wk 2 @ TB 7.1 8.2 +1.1
Wk 3 vs CAR 9.7 2.9 -6.8
Wk 4 vs PIT 9.3 Pending —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Draft Return

How he compares with his draft price

The draft market had him at WR53. For the rest of the season LMD has him 13 spots higher, at WR40.

Preseason market: WR53 · ADP 118.6

Season to date

Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.

Rest of season

WR40 +13

LMD has him 13 spots higher than his WR53 draft price.

Week 4

WR36 +17

LMD has him 17 spots higher than his WR53 draft price.

Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026

Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.

WR53 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.

ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 139.0 points this season, WR40. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 13% of simulated seasons. That is 9.6 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 2 since the Oct. 1 board.

Per game

9.6 / game

Over 14 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 13%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR

Market input

none

No market signal available.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has KC Concepcion #89 in 1QB and #91 in Superflex, WR35 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 21.

1QB

#89

WR35 · tier 21 · of 297 · rookie 7 of 52

Superflex

#91

WR35 · tier 16 · of 303 · rookie 7 of 52

  • Draft capital Round 1, pick 24 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

11.07

pick 126.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

11.04

half of simulations take him by pick 124

Draft range

10.02 - 12.12

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 9,915 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams also published: 10 teams, 8 teams
Scoring Full PPR also published: Half PPR, Standard
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 11.04 in 53% of simulations

Pick 124 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 12.09, where he is available in 15% of simulations.

Slot 4's remaining turns: 11.04 53% · 12.09 15% · 13.04 9% · 14.09 6% · 15.04 3%

The middle half of simulations take him between 10.07 and 12.02.

KC Concepcion still on the board
PickAvailable
11.02 58%
11.03 56%
11.04 53%
11.05 50%
11.06 47%
11.07 44%
11.08 42%
11.09 39%
11.10 36%
11.11 34%
11.12 32%
12.01 29%
12.02 27%
12.03 25%
12.04 23%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which KC Concepcion was selected at each pick, 10.02-10.03 through 12.12. He goes earlier than this window in 9%, later in 9%, undrafted in <1%.
Draft position distribution for KC Concepcion
PickShare of simulationsCount
10.02-10.035%514 of 10000 simulations
10.04-10.055%511 of 10000 simulations
10.06-10.075%548 of 10000 simulations
10.08-10.096%575 of 10000 simulations
10.10-10.115%498 of 10000 simulations
10.12-11.016%604 of 10000 simulations
11.02-11.036%556 of 10000 simulations
11.04-11.056%562 of 10000 simulations
11.06-11.075%530 of 10000 simulations
11.08-11.095%538 of 10000 simulations
11.10-11.115%481 of 10000 simulations
11.12-12.015%458 of 10000 simulations
12.02-12.034%429 of 10000 simulations
12.04-12.054%359 of 10000 simulations
12.06-12.073%314 of 10000 simulations
12.08-12.093%301 of 10000 simulations
12.10-12.112%225 of 10000 simulations
12.121%138 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 9915 simulations in which KC Concepcion was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

KC Concepcion was selected in 9915 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
October 1, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Full PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.