MIA · Bye 6
Malik Washington
LMD WR33 for Week 4 · 8.4 projected Half PPR points · WR38 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.4 points this week, WR33. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 12% · Top 24: 27% of simulated weeks. Up 25 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR33
103rd by projected points
Rest of season
WR38
78th by projected points
Projected
8.4
week 4, Half PPR
Top 12
12%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 27% at WR
Movement
↑ 25
WR58 in Week 3, WR33 now
Should you start Malik Washington in Week 4?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Malik Washington WR33 for Week 4, just outside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 27% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-1.21 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+1.06 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.01 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.38 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Week 4 Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Makai Lemon vs. Malik Washington
Yahoo Sports ·
-
3 takeaways: Malik Washington struggles as Maryland is routed by Nebraska, 48-23
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Can Malik Washington step up among Dolphins injury issues?
thephinsider.com ·
-
Know your Foe: Anthony Colandrea vs Malik Washington
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Four grabs for Malik Washington
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Malik Washington by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Malik Washington has averaged +1.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ LV | 3.4 | 4.8 | +1.4 |
| Wk 2 | @ SF | 4.4 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs KC | 6.9 | 8.6 | +1.7 |
| Wk 4 | @ MIN | 8.4 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 116.5 points this season, WR38. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 16% of simulated seasons. That is 8.3 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 2 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
8.3 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 16%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Malik Washington #200 in 1QB and #208 in Superflex, WR88 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#200
WR88 · tier 44 · of 297
Superflex
#208
WR88 · tier 38 · of 303
- Last season 87.7 pts 5.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 93% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.1 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.10
pick 178.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.11
half of simulations take him by pick 179
Draft range
15.09 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 1,118 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.11 in 95% of simulations
Pick 179 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.10 and 15.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.09 | >99% |
| 15.10 | 97% |
| 15.11 | 95% |
| 15.12 | 92% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | <1% | 1 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 246 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 3% | 282 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 3% | 295 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 3% | 285 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 1118 simulations in which Malik Washington was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 4%
- Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 3%
- Pat Bryant WR · DEN 3%
- Ricky Pearsall WR · SF 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jaylin Noel WR · HOU 3%
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 3%
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 3%
- Ja'Kobi Lane WR · BAL 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Malik Washington was selected in 1118 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.
