PHI · Bye 10 · Rookie
Makai Lemon
LMD WR53 for Week 4 · 7.9 projected Full PPR points · WR64 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.9 points this week, WR53. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 6% · Top 24: 16% of simulated weeks. Up 31 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR53
138th by projected points
Rest of season
WR64
128th by projected points
Projected
7.9
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
6%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 16% at WR
Movement
↑ 31
WR84 in Week 3, WR53 now
Should you start Makai Lemon in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Makai Lemon WR53 for Week 4, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 16% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.12 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.67 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.60 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+1.29 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Makai Lemon can shed early bust label with Eagles amid DeVonta Smith injury
fansided.com ·
-
Eagles Hype of Makai Lemon Masking Reality He Actually Needs Reduced Snaps
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Makai Lemon knows he has "lots to improve" after minus-5 yards in his first NFL game
NBC Sports ·
-
NFC Notes: Terry McLaurin, Makai Lemon, Commanders, Eagles, Giants
yardbarker.com ·
-
Sean Mannion expects Makai Lemon to have a bigger role for Eagles
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Makai Lemon by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Makai Lemon has averaged -2.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs WAS | 5.5 | 2.5 | -3.0 |
| Wk 2 | @ TEN | 5.3 | 1.9 | -3.4 |
| Wk 3 | @ CHI | 6.5 | 5.9 | -0.6 |
| Wk 4 | vs LAR | 7.9 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR57. For the rest of the season LMD has him 7 spots lower, at WR64.
Preseason market: WR57 · ADP 131.2
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR64 −7
LMD has him 7 spots lower than his WR57 draft price.
Week 4
WR53 +4
LMD has him 4 spots higher than his WR57 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR57 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 104.0 points this season, WR64. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 7.9 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 8 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
7.9 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Makai Lemon #79 in 1QB and #80 in Superflex, WR29 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#79
WR29 · tier 19 · of 297 · rookie 6 of 52
Superflex
#80
WR29 · tier 15 · of 303 · rookie 6 of 52
- Draft capital Round 1, pick 20 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.12
pick 96.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.11
half of simulations take him by pick 95
Draft range
7.07 - 10.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.11 in 53% of simulations
Pick 95 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 9.02, where he is available in 44% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 8.11 53% · 9.02 44% · 10.11 6% · 11.02 4% · 12.11 <1% · 13.02 <1% · 14.11 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.02 and 9.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.09 | 58% |
| 8.10 | 55% |
| 8.11 | 53% |
| 8.12 | 50% |
| 9.01 | 47% |
| 9.02 | 44% |
| 9.03 | 42% |
| 9.04 | 39% |
| 9.05 | 36% |
| 9.06 | 34% |
| 9.07 | 32% |
| 9.08 | 29% |
| 9.09 | 27% |
| 9.10 | 25% |
| 9.11 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.07-7.08 | 4% | 407 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 4% | 393 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 5% | 481 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 5% | 523 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 6% | 552 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 6% | 554 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 5% | 489 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 6% | 577 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 6% | 568 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 5% | 520 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 4% | 417 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 4% | 424 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 4% | 359 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 3% | 347 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 3% | 312 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 3% | 259 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07 | 1% | 101 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Makai Lemon was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 2%
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 2%
- Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB 2%
- Michael Wilson WR · ARI 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 2%
- Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB 2%
- Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Makai Lemon was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.