CLE · Bye 11 · Rookie
Denzel Boston
LMD WR43 for Week 4 · 9.1 projected Full PPR points · WR50 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 9.1 points this week, WR43. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 10% · Top 24: 23% of simulated weeks. Down 11 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR43
119th by projected points
Rest of season
WR50
98th by projected points
Projected
9.1
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
10%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 23% at WR
Movement
↓ 11
WR32 in Week 3, WR43 now
Should you start Denzel Boston in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Denzel Boston WR43 for Week 4, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 23% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.75 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.88 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.39 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal · Not requested
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
How Deshaun Watson, Denzel Boston, and the rest of the Browns offense graded vs. the Steelers
cleveland.com ·
-
Week 4 Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Denzel Boston vs. DK Metcalf
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Denzel Boston & the Top Five Fantasy Football Rookie of the Year Contenders
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Denzel Boston hauls in two passes in Week 3
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Is Denzel Boston playing today? Why Browns WR is off to quiet start in Week 3
Sporting News ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Denzel Boston by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Denzel Boston has averaged +7.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ JAX | 5.1 | 13.9 | +8.8 |
| Wk 2 | @ TB | 5.8 | 20.5 | +14.7 |
| Wk 3 | vs CAR | 9.8 | 8.1 | -1.7 |
| Wk 4 | vs PIT | 8.8 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR61. For the rest of the season LMD has him 11 spots higher, at WR50.
Preseason market: WR61 · ADP 140.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR50 +11
LMD has him 11 spots higher than his WR61 draft price.
Week 4
WR43 +18
LMD has him 18 spots higher than his WR61 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR61 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 119.3 points this season, WR50. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3% of simulated seasons. That is 9.1 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 7 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
9.1 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Denzel Boston #118 in 1QB and #125 in Superflex, WR50 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#118
WR50 · tier 27 · of 297 · rookie 11 of 52
Superflex
#125
WR50 · tier 22 · of 303 · rookie 12 of 52
- Draft capital Round 2, pick 39 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.05
pick 172.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.05
half of simulations take him by pick 173
Draft range
14.11 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 3,236 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.05 in 86% of simulations
Pick 173 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.02 and 15.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.03 | 90% |
| 15.04 | 88% |
| 15.05 | 86% |
| 15.06 | 83% |
| 15.07 | 81% |
| 15.08 | 79% |
| 15.09 | 76% |
| 15.10 | 74% |
| 15.11 | 72% |
| 15.12 | 70% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.11 | 1% | 109 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | 1% | 108 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 2% | 227 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 2% | 238 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 215 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 233 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 239 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 3% | 256 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 234 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 214 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 214 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 216 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 226 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 3236 simulations in which Denzel Boston was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Harrison Butker K · KC 4%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Los Angeles Chargers DST · LAC 3%
Usually taken just after
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Omar Cooper Jr. WR · NYJ 3%
- Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Denzel Boston was selected in 3236 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.