TB · Bye 10
Emeka Egbuka
LMD WR33 for Week 4 · 10.2 projected Full PPR points · WR39 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 10.2 points this week, WR33. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 13% · Top 24: 28% of simulated weeks. Down 7 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR33
98th by projected points
Rest of season
WR39
74th by projected points
Projected
10.2
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
13%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 28% at WR
Movement
↓ 7
WR26 in Week 3, WR33 now
Should you start Emeka Egbuka in Week 4?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Emeka Egbuka WR33 for Week 4, just outside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 28% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
WR33 vs WR20 -13
LMD has him WR33. The fantasy draft market has him WR20, 13 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.01 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.26 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.22 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.70 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Week 4 Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Deebo Samuel vs. Emeka Egbuka
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Predicted Stat Line: Buccaneers WR Emeka Egbuka vs Minnesota
yardbarker.com ·
-
STATUS
Emeka Egbuka is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Emeka Egbuka and Jacob Parrish highlight 4 Buccaneers not named Baker Mayfield that will make or break the 2026 season
yardbarker.com ·
-
Todd Bowles Confirms Emeka Egbuka Is Ready to Play as 2 Bucs Remain Doubtful
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Emeka Egbuka by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Emeka Egbuka has averaged +0.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CIN | 10.8 | 11.3 | +0.5 |
| Wk 2 | vs CLE | 10.0 | 10.3 | +0.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs MIN | 11.5 | 11.2 | -0.3 |
| Wk 4 | vs GB | 10.2 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR18. For the rest of the season LMD has him 21 spots lower, at WR39.
Preseason market: WR18 · ADP 35.0
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR39 −21
LMD has him 21 spots lower than his WR18 draft price.
Week 4
WR33 −15
LMD has him 15 spots lower than his WR18 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR18 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 139.7 points this season, WR39. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 13% of simulated seasons. That is 10.4 a game over 14 remaining games. Down 1 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
10.4 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 13%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Emeka Egbuka #27 in 1QB and #35 in Superflex, WR9 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#27
WR9 · tier 10 · of 297
Superflex
#35
WR9 · tier 9 · of 303
- Last season 164.2 pts 9.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 24% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.06
pick 41.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.06
half of simulations take him by pick 42
Draft range
3.05 - 5.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.06 in 55% of simulations
Pick 42 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 5.07, where he is available in 8% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 4.06 55% · 5.07 8% · 6.06 <1% · 7.07 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.12 and 4.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.04 | 63% |
| 4.05 | 59% |
| 4.06 | 55% |
| 4.07 | 50% |
| 4.08 | 45% |
| 4.09 | 41% |
| 4.10 | 36% |
| 4.11 | 31% |
| 4.12 | 27% |
| 5.01 | 23% |
| 5.02 | 19% |
| 5.03 | 16% |
| 5.04 | 14% |
| 5.05 | 12% |
| 5.06 | 10% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.05-3.06 | 3% | 278 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07-3.08 | 4% | 390 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09-3.10 | 5% | 499 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11-3.12 | 6% | 561 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01-4.02 | 7% | 654 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03-4.04 | 8% | 828 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05-4.06 | 9% | 886 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07-4.08 | 9% | 936 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09-4.10 | 9% | 912 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11-4.12 | 8% | 827 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01-5.02 | 7% | 677 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03-5.04 | 5% | 488 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05 | 2% | 202 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Emeka Egbuka was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Luther Burden III WR · CHI 4%
- Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 4%
- Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 3%
- Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 3%
Usually taken just after
- Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 4%
- Luther Burden III WR · CHI 3%
- Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 3%
- Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Emeka Egbuka was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.