BUF · Bye 7
Khalil Shakir
LMD WR44 for Week 4 · 8.7 projected Full PPR points · WR53 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.7 points this week, WR44. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 20% of simulated weeks. Up 1 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR44
122nd by projected points
Rest of season
WR53
104th by projected points
Projected
8.7
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
9%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 20% at WR
Movement
↑ 1
WR45 in Week 3, WR44 now
Should you start Khalil Shakir in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Khalil Shakir WR44 for Week 4, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 20% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
WR44 vs WR49 +5
LMD has him WR44. The fantasy draft market has him WR49, 5 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.12 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.21 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.26 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+0.73 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Josh Allen wants to see the Bills get the ball to Khalil Shakir more
The Buffalo News ·
-
STATUS
Khalil Shakir is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Khalil Shakir's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 106.3 to 97.3 over the last 7 days.
-
30 most important Bills players of 2026: No. 12 Khalil Shakir
Yahoo Sports ·
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Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman checks in with wide receiver Khalil Shakir on the play while they line up during first half action at Empower FIeld at Mile High in Denver, Colorado on Jan. 17
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Khalil Shakir by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Khalil Shakir has averaged -2.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ HOU | 6.8 | 9.0 | +2.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs DET | 7.1 | 6.8 | -0.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAC | 9.8 | 1.6 | -8.2 |
| Wk 4 | vs NE | 8.7 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR47. For the rest of the season LMD has him 6 spots lower, at WR53.
Preseason market: WR47 · ADP 98.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR53 −6
LMD has him 6 spots lower than his WR47 draft price.
Week 4
WR44 +3
LMD has him 3 spots higher than his WR47 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR47 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 117.4 points this season, WR53. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 2% of simulated seasons. That is 8.7 a game over 14 remaining games.
Per game
8.7 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 2%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Khalil Shakir #121 in 1QB and #128 in Superflex, WR51 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#121
WR51 · tier 27 · of 297
Superflex
#128
WR51 · tier 22 · of 303
- Last season 130.4 pts 8.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 19% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.04
pick 136.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.12
half of simulations take him by pick 132
Draft range
10.11 - 14.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,594 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.12 in 55% of simulations
Pick 132 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 12.01, where he is available in 52% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 11.12 55% · 12.01 52% · 13.12 20% · 14.01 19% · 15.12 4%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.04 and 12.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.10 | 60% |
| 11.11 | 57% |
| 11.12 | 55% |
| 12.01 | 52% |
| 12.02 | 49% |
| 12.03 | 46% |
| 12.04 | 44% |
| 12.05 | 41% |
| 12.06 | 38% |
| 12.07 | 35% |
| 12.08 | 33% |
| 12.09 | 30% |
| 12.10 | 28% |
| 12.11 | 26% |
| 12.12 | 24% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.11-11.01 | 8% | 815 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.04 | 8% | 787 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.07 | 8% | 834 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.10 | 9% | 869 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-12.01 | 8% | 829 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.04 | 8% | 835 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.07 | 8% | 755 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.10 | 7% | 719 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-13.01 | 4% | 420 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.04 | <1% | 55 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.07 | <1% | 74 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.10 | <1% | 63 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-14.01 | 1% | 104 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.04 | 2% | 157 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.07 | 2% | 156 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.10 | 2% | 172 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | <1% | 53 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9594 simulations in which Khalil Shakir was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 2%
- Xavier Worthy WR · KC 2%
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2%
- KC Concepcion WR · CLE 2%
Usually taken just after
- Matthew Golden WR · GB 2%
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 2%
- Xavier Worthy WR · KC 2%
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Khalil Shakir was selected in 9594 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.