CIN · Bye 6
Ja'Marr Chase
Ja'Marr Chase comes off the board at 1.06 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 1.05.
12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulated ADP
1.06
pick 5.8 overall, on average
Median pick
1.05
half of simulations take him by pick 5
Draft range
1.01 - 1.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 1.05 in 54% of simulations
Pick 5 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 2.08, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 1.05 54% · 2.08 <1% · 3.05 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 1.03 and 1.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 1.03 | 76% |
| 1.04 | 64% |
| 1.05 | 54% |
| 1.06 | 46% |
| 1.07 | 38% |
| 1.08 | 32% |
| 1.09 | 25% |
| 1.10 | 19% |
| 1.11 | 14% |
| 1.12 | 10% |
| 2.01 | 6% |
| 2.02 | 4% |
| 2.03 | 3% |
| 2.04 | 2% |
| 2.05 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 1.01 | 12% | 1214 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.02 | 12% | 1187 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.03 | 12% | 1234 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.04 | 9% | 949 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.05 | 8% | 818 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.06 | 8% | 752 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.07 | 7% | 659 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.08 | 6% | 641 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.09 | 6% | 608 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.10 | 5% | 541 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.11 | 4% | 436 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Ja'Marr Chase was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 10%
- Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 10%
- Puka Nacua WR · LAR 8%
- Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 7%
Usually taken just after
- Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 10%
- Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 9%
- Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 8%
- Puka Nacua WR · LAR 8%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.
Ja'Marr Chase was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.
We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.1
- Generated
- August 20, 2026
- Player dataset
- sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.