DET · Bye 6
Amon-Ra St. Brown
LMD WR3 for Week 4 · 18.7 projected Full PPR points · WR3 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 18.7 points this week, WR3. Top 3: 16% · Top 12: 44% · Top 24: 65% of simulated weeks. Down 1 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR3
8th by projected points
Rest of season
WR3
7th by projected points
Projected
18.7
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
44%
Top 3: 16% · Top 24: 65% at WR
Movement
↓ 1
WR2 in Week 3, WR3 now
Should you start Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 4?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Amon-Ra St. Brown WR3 for Week 4, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 65% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.59 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.36 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.44 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.34 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Amon-Ra St. Brown has priceless reaction to Julian Edelman’s accidental double entendre
yardbarker.com ·
-
Amon-Ra St. Brown Makes Personal Admission About His Upbringing
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown Makes Personal Admission About His Upbringing
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown first teammates with 5-plus TDs each in first three games since 1962
NBC Sports ·
-
Dan Campbell believes Lions ‘will be OK’ after Amon-Ra St. Brown gets checked out
mlive.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Amon-Ra St. Brown by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged +6.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NO | 17.5 | 28.7 | +11.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ BUF | 18.7 | 35.2 | +16.5 |
| Wk 3 | vs NYJ | 19.4 | 11.9 | -7.5 |
| Wk 4 | @ CAR | 18.7 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR4. For the rest of the season LMD has him 1 spot higher, at WR3.
Preseason market: WR4 · ADP 7.0
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR3 +1
LMD has him 1 spot higher than his WR4 draft price.
Week 4
WR3 +1
LMD has him 1 spot higher than his WR4 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR4 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 250.3 points this season, WR3. Top 3: 35% · Top 12: 86% · Top 24: 98% of simulated seasons. That is 18.3 a game over 14 remaining games.
Per game
18.3 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 35% · Top 12: 86% · Top 24: 98%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Amon-Ra St. Brown #6 in 1QB and #10 in Superflex, WR3 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#6
WR3 · tier 4 · of 297
Superflex
#10
WR3 · tier 4 · of 303
- Last season 265.5 pts 15.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 99% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 9.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 30% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
1.08
pick 8.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
1.08
half of simulations take him by pick 8
Draft range
1.06 - 1.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 1.08 in 70% of simulations
Pick 8 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 2.05, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 1.08 70% · 2.05 <1% · 3.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 1.07 and 1.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 1.06 | 94% |
| 1.07 | 87% |
| 1.08 | 70% |
| 1.09 | 49% |
| 1.10 | 26% |
| 1.11 | 13% |
| 1.12 | 6% |
| 2.01 | 3% |
| 2.02 | 1% |
| 2.03 | <1% |
| 2.04 | <1% |
| 2.05 | <1% |
| 2.06 | <1% |
| 2.07 | <1% |
| 2.08 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 1.04 | 1% | 130 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.05 | 3% | 301 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.06 | 7% | 726 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.07 | 17% | 1675 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.08 | 22% | 2168 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.09 | 23% | 2256 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.10 | 13% | 1334 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.11 | 7% | 658 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.12 | 3% | 342 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.01 | 1% | 141 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Amon-Ra St. Brown was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 18%
- Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 17%
- CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 9%
- Puka Nacua WR · LAR 9%
Usually taken just after
- Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 19%
- CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 12%
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 10%
- Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 9%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.