HOU · Bye 8
Kayshon Boutte
LMD WR76 for Week 4 · 5.4 projected Full PPR points · WR87 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.4 points this week, WR76. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 6% of simulated weeks. Up 36 since Week 3.
Week 4
WR76
184th by projected points
Rest of season
WR87
174th by projected points
Projected
5.4
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
2%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 6% at WR
Movement
↑ 36
WR112 in Week 3, WR76 now
Should you start Kayshon Boutte in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Kayshon Boutte WR76 for Week 4, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 6% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.05 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.00 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.06 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight positive+0.11 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
ADP UPDATE
Kayshon Boutte's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 151.9 to 142.8 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Kayshon Boutte has averaged -1.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BUF | 4.8 | 3.1 | -1.7 |
| Wk 2 | vs CIN | 4.7 | 6.7 | +2.0 |
| Wk 3 | @ IND | 7.4 | 4.1 | -3.3 |
| Wk 4 | vs DAL | 5.4 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR73. For the rest of the season LMD has him 14 spots lower, at WR87.
Preseason market: WR73 · ADP 158.7
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR87 −14
LMD has him 14 spots lower than his WR73 draft price.
Week 4
WR76 −3
LMD has him 3 spots lower than his WR73 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR73 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 76.2 points this season, WR87. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 5.4 a game over 14 remaining games. Up 7 since the Oct. 1 board.
Per game
5.4 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kayshon Boutte #167 in 1QB and #173 in Superflex, WR69 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#167
WR69 · tier 38 · of 297
Superflex
#173
WR69 · tier 33 · of 303
- Last season 107.6 pts 7.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 71% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.10
pick 178.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.11
half of simulations take him by pick 179
Draft range
15.08 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 606 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.11 in 98% of simulations
Pick 179 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.10 and 15.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.09 | >99% |
| 15.10 | 99% |
| 15.11 | 98% |
| 15.12 | 96% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | <1% | 4 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | <1% | 7 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | <1% | 10 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | <1% | 40 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | <1% | 64 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 1% | 101 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 182 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 193 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 606 simulations in which Kayshon Boutte was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Tank Bigsby RB · PHI 4%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Braelon Allen RB · NYJ 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 3%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 2%
- Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 2%
- Antonio Williams WR · WAS 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kayshon Boutte was selected in 606 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.