SEA · Bye 11
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
LMD WR1 for Week 4 · 21.1 projected Full PPR points · WR1 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 21.1 points this week, WR1. Top 3: 21% · Top 12: 52% · Top 24: 73% of simulated weeks.
Week 4
WR1
3rd by projected points
Rest of season
WR1
3rd by projected points
Projected
21.1
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
52%
Top 3: 21% · Top 24: 73% at WR
Movement
—
Unchanged: WR1 in Week 3
Should you start Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 4?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 for Week 4, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 73% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-1.00 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+1.71 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.20 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.31 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba exits the tunnel during player introductions.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Seahawks Coach Reveals Reasons For Huge Jaxon Smith-Njigba Workload
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin shakes hands with Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Seattle WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba says Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith is 'like the LeBron James' of all-time Buckeyes
CBS Sports ·
-
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Gives Massive Praise to Ohio State Star Jeremiah Smith
newsweek.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jaxon Smith-Njigba by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Jaxon Smith-Njigba has averaged +15.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NE | 17.9 | 26.2 | +8.3 |
| Wk 2 | @ ARI | 18.8 | 42.5 | +23.7 |
| Wk 3 | @ WAS | 20.2 | 35.4 | +15.2 |
| Wk 4 | vs LAC | 21.1 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR3. For the rest of the season LMD has him 2 spots higher, at WR1.
Preseason market: WR3 · ADP 5.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR1 +2
LMD has him 2 spots higher than his WR3 draft price.
Week 4
WR1 +2
LMD has him 2 spots higher than his WR3 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR3 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 293.5 points this season, WR1. Top 3: 71% · Top 12: 98% · Top 24: 100% of simulated seasons. That is 20.9 a game over 14 remaining games.
Per game
20.9 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 71% · Top 12: 98% · Top 24: 100%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jaxon Smith-Njigba #4 in 1QB and #8 in Superflex, WR2 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#4
WR2 · tier 3 · of 297
Superflex
#8
WR2 · tier 3 · of 303
- Last season 300.4 pts 17.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 8.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 29% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
1.07
pick 6.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
1.06
half of simulations take him by pick 6
Draft range
1.04 - 1.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 1.06 in 73% of simulations
Pick 6 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 2.07, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 1.06 73% · 2.07 <1% · 3.06 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 1.05 and 1.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 1.04 | 95% |
| 1.05 | 89% |
| 1.06 | 73% |
| 1.07 | 49% |
| 1.08 | 27% |
| 1.09 | 15% |
| 1.10 | 9% |
| 1.11 | 5% |
| 1.12 | 2% |
| 2.01 | <1% |
| 2.02 | <1% |
| 2.03 | <1% |
| 2.04 | <1% |
| 2.05 | <1% |
| 2.06 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 1.02 | 1% | 138 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.03 | 3% | 264 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.04 | 6% | 642 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.05 | 16% | 1571 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.06 | 24% | 2397 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.07 | 22% | 2247 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.08 | 12% | 1154 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.09 | 6% | 619 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.10 | 4% | 417 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.11 | 3% | 264 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Jaxon Smith-Njigba was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN 20%
- Puka Nacua WR · LAR 12%
- Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 11%
- Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 10%
Usually taken just after
- Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 18%
- Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 14%
- Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN 10%
- CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 9%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.