NFL · 2026 Week 9
2026 Week 9 WR Rankings
Final pre-kickoff board · published November 5, 2026, 18:08 UTC · first kickoff November 6, 2026, 01:15 UTC
Half PPR, 1QB · 172 players projected · updated November 5, 2026
How these rankings work
How these rankings are built
We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.
We then update those expectations for Week 9 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.
We then simulate the week 4,000 times. The projected fantasy points those simulations produce set the order and the tiers.
This board is priced in Half PPR. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.
How the tiers work
Players are grouped into tiers at each position by projected fantasy points. A new tier starts where the projections separate, not after a set number of players, so tiers vary in size and a player who stands apart can be a tier on his own.
The breaks come from the best grouping of each position's projections, the method behind Jenks natural breaks, with gaps judged against how widely weekly scores vary at that position. The rule is the same every week and nobody places players by hand.
Within a tier, players are listed by projected points, but the gaps between them are small. They shouldn't decide a start/sit on their own.
A tier's band is the range of its players' projected points. It isn't a range of outcomes.
A player's 80% range is the middle of his simulated scores: the model puts 10% of outcomes below it and 10% above. Real scores can land outside it.
Players in neighbouring tiers often have overlapping ranges. A higher tier means more projected points, not a guarantee of outscoring everyone below it.
What the percentages mean
For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.
- Top 3
- how often he finishes among the top three at his position
- Top 12
- how often he finishes in the top 12
- Top 24
- how often he finishes in the top 24
A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.
How often a strong start lasts
Since 1999, 68% of WRs inside the top 12 through Week 8 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 324 WR-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.
What stood out in Week 9
172 WRs in 12 tiers for Week 9. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads at 18.0 projected points.
Tiers break where projected points separate, and the differences inside a tier are small. Each 80% range is the middle 80% of that player's simulated scores; real scores can fall outside it.
| Pos | Player | Proj | Outcome profile | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 17.6 - 18.0 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 29%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR13 at the median, WR5 - WR28 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR47 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 20%Top 12: 50%Top 24: 71% 80% range: 6.6 - 33.1 |
18.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 29%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR13 at the median, WR5 - WR28 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR47 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Puka NacuaLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR13 at the median, WR5 - WR30 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR51 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 19%Top 12: 49%Top 24: 69% 80% range: 6.0 - 32.7 |
17.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR13 at the median, WR5 - WR30 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR51 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 2 14.8 - 15.7 projected points | |||||||
| WR | CeeDee LambDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 36%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR17 at the median, WR7 - WR35 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 15%Top 12: 41%Top 24: 64% 80% range: 5.8 - 28.5 |
15.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 36%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR17 at the median, WR7 - WR35 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR53 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ja'Marr ChaseCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 39%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR17 at the median, WR6 - WR37 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR56 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 40%Top 24: 61% 80% range: 5.4 - 28.4 |
15.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 39%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR17 at the median, WR6 - WR37 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR56 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Amon-Ra St. BrownDETQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 44%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR20 at the median, WR7 - WR45 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR67 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 36%Top 24: 56% 80% range: 4.3 - 29.1 |
14.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 44%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR20 at the median, WR7 - WR45 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR67 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 3 12.3 - 13.6 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Malik NabersNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 46%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR22 at the median, WR8 - WR44 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR61 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 54% 80% range: 4.8 - 25.8 |
13.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 46%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR22 at the median, WR8 - WR44 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR61 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tee HigginsCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR21 at the median, WR9 - WR45 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR63 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 34%Top 24: 55% 80% range: 4.7 - 25.0 |
13.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR21 at the median, WR9 - WR45 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR63 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Justin JeffersonMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 50%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR10 - WR48 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 50% 80% range: 4.4 - 24.4 |
12.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 50%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR10 - WR48 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR65 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Matthew GoldenGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR10 - WR46 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR63 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 30%Top 24: 51% 80% range: 4.7 - 23.3 |
12.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR10 - WR46 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR63 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Drake LondonATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR10 - WR46 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR63 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 29%Top 24: 51% 80% range: 4.7 - 23.3 |
12.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR10 - WR46 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR63 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | DeVonta SmithPHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR30 at the median, WR11 - WR59 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 44% 80% range: 3.0 - 25.7 |
12.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR30 at the median, WR11 - WR59 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR85 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Chris OlaveNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 50%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR11 - WR47 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 29%Top 24: 50% 80% range: 4.5 - 23.3 |
12.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 50%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR11 - WR47 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR65 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Christian WatsonGBQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR28 at the median, WR11 - WR53 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR74 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 46% 80% range: 3.8 - 23.7 |
12.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR28 at the median, WR11 - WR53 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR74 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 4 10.2 - 11.5 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Tetairoa McMillanCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR30 at the median, WR12 - WR52 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR70 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 43% 80% range: 4.1 - 21.7 |
11.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR30 at the median, WR12 - WR52 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR70 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Luther Burden IIICHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR13 - WR51 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 44% 80% range: 4.3 - 20.8 |
11.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR13 - WR51 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR68 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Nico CollinsHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR32 at the median, WR13 - WR57 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR77 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 42% 80% range: 3.6 - 21.6 |
11.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR32 at the median, WR13 - WR57 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR77 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Garrett WilsonNYJQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR32 at the median, WR14 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR80 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 41% 80% range: 3.4 - 21.8 |
11.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR32 at the median, WR14 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR80 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | George PickensDALQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR34 at the median, WR14 - WR59 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR80 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 41% 80% range: 3.3 - 21.7 |
11.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR34 at the median, WR14 - WR59 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR80 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Rashee RiceKCQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR36 at the median, WR14 - WR63 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 38% 80% range: 2.9 - 22.1 |
11.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR36 at the median, WR14 - WR63 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR88 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Zay FlowersBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR33 at the median, WR15 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR72 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 39% 80% range: 3.9 - 19.6 |
10.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR33 at the median, WR15 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR72 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Parker WashingtonJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR34 at the median, WR15 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR78 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 39% 80% range: 3.5 - 20.2 |
10.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR34 at the median, WR15 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR78 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Mike EvansSFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR37 at the median, WR15 - WR64 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 38% 80% range: 3.0 - 21.0 |
10.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR37 at the median, WR15 - WR64 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR88 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Michael WilsonARIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR36 at the median, WR15 - WR60 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR84 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 39% 80% range: 3.2 - 19.9 |
10.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR36 at the median, WR15 - WR60 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR84 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jameson WilliamsDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 63%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR37 at the median, WR16 - WR60 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR79 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 37% 80% range: 3.4 - 19.8 |
10.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 63%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR37 at the median, WR16 - WR60 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR79 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 5 8.5 - 9.6 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Emeka EgbukaTBQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR42 at the median, WR18 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 33% 80% range: 2.6 - 19.0 |
9.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR42 at the median, WR18 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR95 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | A.J. BrownNEQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR18 - WR75 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 18%Top 24: 32% 80% range: 2.3 - 19.8 |
9.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR18 - WR75 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR105 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jalen CokerCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR41 at the median, WR19 - WR64 in the middle half, and WR8 - WR85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 33% 80% range: 3.1 - 18.1 |
9.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR41 at the median, WR19 - WR64 in the middle half, and WR8 - WR85 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | DJ MooreBUFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR20 - WR71 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 31% 80% range: 2.5 - 18.7 |
9.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR20 - WR71 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR99 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Stefon DiggsWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR44 at the median, WR19 - WR67 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 32% 80% range: 3.0 - 17.6 |
9.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR44 at the median, WR19 - WR67 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR88 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR20 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR8 - WR93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 31% 80% range: 2.8 - 17.7 |
9.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR20 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR8 - WR93 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Denzel BostonCLEQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR20 - WR71 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 30% 80% range: 2.6 - 17.7 |
9.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR20 - WR71 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR96 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Devaughn VeleNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR22 - WR67 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 29% 80% range: 3.0 - 16.7 |
8.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR22 - WR67 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR88 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | KC Concepcion Jr.CLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR44 at the median, WR22 - WR64 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR83 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 28% 80% range: 3.2 - 16.1 |
8.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR44 at the median, WR22 - WR64 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR83 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Keenan AllenIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR44 at the median, WR21 - WR65 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 29% 80% range: 3.0 - 16.7 |
8.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR44 at the median, WR21 - WR65 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR87 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jaylen WaddleDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR22 - WR66 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 28% 80% range: 3.2 - 16.3 |
8.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR22 - WR66 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR85 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Adonai MitchellNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR22 - WR70 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR94 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 28% 80% range: 2.7 - 16.9 |
8.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR22 - WR70 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR94 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Malik WashingtonMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR22 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 28% 80% range: 2.9 - 16.5 |
8.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR22 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR88 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Rome OdunzeCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR22 - WR67 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 28% 80% range: 3.0 - 15.9 |
8.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR22 - WR67 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR88 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 6 6.8 - 8.2 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Makai LemonPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR24 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 25% 80% range: 3.0 - 15.4 |
8.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR24 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR86 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Deebo Samuel Sr.SFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR52 at the median, WR23 - WR81 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 26% 80% range: 2.2 - 16.8 |
8.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR52 at the median, WR23 - WR81 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR108 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tre TuckerLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR48 at the median, WR25 - WR70 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 25% 80% range: 2.9 - 15.5 |
8.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR48 at the median, WR25 - WR70 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR90 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ladd McConkeyLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR51 at the median, WR27 - WR72 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 22% 80% range: 2.7 - 15.0 |
7.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR51 at the median, WR27 - WR72 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR93 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jordan AddisonMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR51 at the median, WR26 - WR73 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 23% 80% range: 2.6 - 14.6 |
7.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR51 at the median, WR26 - WR73 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR96 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Caleb DouglasMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR26 - WR79 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 24% 80% range: 2.3 - 15.2 |
7.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR26 - WR79 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR103 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | DeMario DouglasNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR53 at the median, WR26 - WR77 in the middle half, and WR14 - WR98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 23% 80% range: 2.5 - 14.6 |
7.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR53 at the median, WR26 - WR77 in the middle half, and WR14 - WR98 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Josh DownsIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR53 at the median, WR28 - WR73 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR94 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 22% 80% range: 2.7 - 14.4 |
7.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR53 at the median, WR28 - WR73 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR94 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Xavier WorthyKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR55 at the median, WR27 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 23% 80% range: 2.4 - 15.1 |
7.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR55 at the median, WR27 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR100 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jakobi MeyersJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR27 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 22% 80% range: 2.4 - 14.9 |
7.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR27 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR101 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ryan FlournoyDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR27 - WR77 in the middle half, and WR14 - WR100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 22% 80% range: 2.4 - 14.5 |
7.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR27 - WR77 in the middle half, and WR14 - WR100 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Antonio WilliamsWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR55 at the median, WR29 - WR77 in the middle half, and WR15 - WR99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 20% 80% range: 2.5 - 14.0 |
7.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR55 at the median, WR29 - WR77 in the middle half, and WR15 - WR99 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Khalil ShakirBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR55 at the median, WR29 - WR76 in the middle half, and WR15 - WR99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 21% 80% range: 2.5 - 14.1 |
7.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR55 at the median, WR29 - WR76 in the middle half, and WR15 - WR99 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Courtland SuttonDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR60 at the median, WR30 - WR82 in the middle half, and WR16 - WR103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 19% 80% range: 2.3 - 13.3 |
6.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR60 at the median, WR30 - WR82 in the middle half, and WR16 - WR103 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 7 5.2 - 6.4 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Dontayvion WicksPHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR66 at the median, WR36 - WR96 in the middle half, and WR16 - WR124 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 16% 80% range: 1.7 - 13.3 |
6.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR66 at the median, WR36 - WR96 in the middle half, and WR16 - WR124 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Treylon BurksWASQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR66 at the median, WR34 - WR97 in the middle half, and WR17 - WR124 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 17% 80% range: 1.7 - 13.2 |
6.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR66 at the median, WR34 - WR97 in the middle half, and WR17 - WR124 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Chris Godwin Jr.TB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR62 at the median, WR39 - WR85 in the middle half, and WR20 - WR107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 13% 80% range: 2.2 - 11.8 |
6.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR62 at the median, WR39 - WR85 in the middle half, and WR20 - WR107 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Quentin JohnstonLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR66 at the median, WR41 - WR91 in the middle half, and WR20 - WR114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 13% 80% range: 2.0 - 11.7 |
5.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR66 at the median, WR41 - WR91 in the middle half, and WR20 - WR114 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Malachi FieldsNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR68 at the median, WR40 - WR92 in the middle half, and WR20 - WR114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 13% 80% range: 2.0 - 11.7 |
5.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR68 at the median, WR40 - WR92 in the middle half, and WR20 - WR114 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Marvin Harrison Jr.HOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR70 at the median, WR39 - WR96 in the middle half, and WR19 - WR121 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 14% 80% range: 1.7 - 11.9 |
5.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR70 at the median, WR39 - WR96 in the middle half, and WR19 - WR121 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Rashid ShaheedSEAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR70 at the median, WR41 - WR98 in the middle half, and WR20 - WR124 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 13% 80% range: 1.7 - 11.9 |
5.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR70 at the median, WR41 - WR98 in the middle half, and WR20 - WR124 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jahan DotsonATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR69 at the median, WR41 - WR93 in the middle half, and WR21 - WR116 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 13% 80% range: 1.9 - 11.5 |
5.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR69 at the median, WR41 - WR93 in the middle half, and WR21 - WR116 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Xavier HutchinsonHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR70 at the median, WR42 - WR94 in the middle half, and WR22 - WR116 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12% 80% range: 1.9 - 11.2 |
5.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR70 at the median, WR42 - WR94 in the middle half, and WR22 - WR116 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tre HarrisLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR70 at the median, WR46 - WR94 in the middle half, and WR24 - WR117 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 11% 80% range: 1.9 - 10.9 |
5.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR70 at the median, WR46 - WR94 in the middle half, and WR24 - WR117 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jalen NailorLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR74 at the median, WR45 - WR101 in the middle half, and WR22 - WR125 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11% 80% range: 1.7 - 10.9 |
5.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR74 at the median, WR45 - WR101 in the middle half, and WR22 - WR125 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Cooper KuppSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR72 at the median, WR45 - WR97 in the middle half, and WR23 - WR120 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 11% 80% range: 1.8 - 10.9 |
5.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR72 at the median, WR45 - WR97 in the middle half, and WR23 - WR120 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Darius CooperPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR76 at the median, WR45 - WR101 in the middle half, and WR24 - WR123 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 11% 80% range: 1.7 - 10.8 |
5.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR76 at the median, WR45 - WR101 in the middle half, and WR24 - WR123 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Keon ColemanBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR75 at the median, WR47 - WR99 in the middle half, and WR25 - WR123 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10% 80% range: 1.7 - 10.6 |
5.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR75 at the median, WR47 - WR99 in the middle half, and WR25 - WR123 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 8 4.2 - 5.0 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Chris BellMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR74 at the median, WR49 - WR99 in the middle half, and WR25 - WR122 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% 80% range: 1.7 - 10.2 |
5.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR74 at the median, WR49 - WR99 in the middle half, and WR25 - WR122 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Travis HunterJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR86 at the median, WR52 - WR118 in the middle half, and WR26 - WR143 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% 80% range: 1.2 - 10.4 |
4.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR86 at the median, WR52 - WR118 in the middle half, and WR26 - WR143 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Efton Chism IIINE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR82 at the median, WR55 - WR108 in the middle half, and WR28 - WR131 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 1.5 - 9.8 |
4.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR82 at the median, WR55 - WR108 in the middle half, and WR28 - WR131 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tank DellHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR84 at the median, WR53 - WR114 in the middle half, and WR27 - WR142 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 1.3 - 9.9 |
4.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR84 at the median, WR53 - WR114 in the middle half, and WR27 - WR142 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Laquon TreadwellIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR78 at the median, WR54 - WR103 in the middle half, and WR29 - WR125 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 1.6 - 9.6 |
4.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR78 at the median, WR54 - WR103 in the middle half, and WR29 - WR125 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Kalif RaymondCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR81 at the median, WR55 - WR106 in the middle half, and WR29 - WR128 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 1.6 - 9.6 |
4.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR81 at the median, WR55 - WR106 in the middle half, and WR29 - WR128 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Savion WilliamsGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR84 at the median, WR54 - WR115 in the middle half, and WR28 - WR139 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 1.3 - 9.7 |
4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR84 at the median, WR54 - WR115 in the middle half, and WR28 - WR139 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jerry JeudyCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR81 at the median, WR56 - WR105 in the middle half, and WR31 - WR128 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 1.6 - 9.1 |
4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR81 at the median, WR56 - WR105 in the middle half, and WR31 - WR128 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Brennan PresleyLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR92 at the median, WR56 - WR124 in the middle half, and WR28 - WR151 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 1.1 - 9.8 |
4.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR92 at the median, WR56 - WR124 in the middle half, and WR28 - WR151 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Odell Beckham Jr.MIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR90 at the median, WR57 - WR124 in the middle half, and WR27 - WR149 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 1.1 - 9.7 |
4.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR90 at the median, WR57 - WR124 in the middle half, and WR27 - WR149 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ted Hurst IIITB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR86 at the median, WR59 - WR112 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR134 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 1.4 - 9.4 |
4.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR86 at the median, WR59 - WR112 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR134 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Marquise BrownPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR88 at the median, WR60 - WR117 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR141 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 1.3 - 9.0 |
4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR88 at the median, WR60 - WR117 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR141 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Christian KirkSFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR59 - WR132 in the middle half, and WR28 - WR159 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 0.9 - 9.9 |
4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR59 - WR132 in the middle half, and WR28 - WR159 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 9 3.4 - 4.1 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Brian Thomas Jr.JAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR92 at the median, WR60 - WR118 in the middle half, and WR31 - WR141 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 1.3 - 9.1 |
4.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR92 at the median, WR60 - WR118 in the middle half, and WR31 - WR141 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Isaac TeSlaaDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR63 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR146 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 1.2 - 9.2 |
4.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR63 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR146 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Camden BrownDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR93 at the median, WR61 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR149 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 1.1 - 9.0 |
4.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR93 at the median, WR61 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR149 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | C.J. WilliamsJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR94 at the median, WR62 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR150 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 1.1 - 8.8 |
4.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR94 at the median, WR62 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR150 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Dont'e Thornton Jr.LV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR93 at the median, WR61 - WR126 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR151 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 1.1 - 8.9 |
4.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR93 at the median, WR61 - WR126 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR151 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ja'Kobi LaneBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR93 at the median, WR63 - WR122 in the middle half, and WR33 - WR146 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 1.2 - 8.9 |
4.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR93 at the median, WR63 - WR122 in the middle half, and WR33 - WR146 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Dohnte MeyersCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR93 at the median, WR63 - WR120 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR141 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 1.3 - 9.1 |
4.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR93 at the median, WR63 - WR120 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR141 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Michael BandyDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR95 at the median, WR61 - WR129 in the middle half, and WR31 - WR153 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 1.0 - 9.2 |
4.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR95 at the median, WR61 - WR129 in the middle half, and WR31 - WR153 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Rashod BatemanBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR91 at the median, WR64 - WR115 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR137 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 1.4 - 8.5 |
3.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR91 at the median, WR64 - WR115 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR137 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Phillip Dorsett IILV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR62 - WR131 in the middle half, and WR33 - WR156 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 1.0 - 8.9 |
3.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR62 - WR131 in the middle half, and WR33 - WR156 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | David Sills VTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR66 - WR128 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR152 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 1.1 - 8.6 |
3.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR66 - WR128 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR152 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Kayshon BoutteHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR68 - WR121 in the middle half, and WR36 - WR142 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 1.2 - 8.3 |
3.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR68 - WR121 in the middle half, and WR36 - WR142 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jordan WatkinsSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR98 at the median, WR68 - WR128 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR151 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 1.1 - 8.4 |
3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR98 at the median, WR68 - WR128 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR151 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Konata MumpfieldLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR98 at the median, WR69 - WR123 in the middle half, and WR38 - WR145 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 1.2 - 8.1 |
3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR98 at the median, WR69 - WR123 in the middle half, and WR38 - WR145 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Darnell MooneyNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR98 at the median, WR69 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR36 - WR145 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 1.2 - 8.4 |
3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR98 at the median, WR69 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR36 - WR145 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jack BechLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR99 at the median, WR68 - WR130 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR153 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 1.0 - 8.2 |
3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR99 at the median, WR68 - WR130 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR153 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | John Metchie IIICAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR68 - WR123 in the middle half, and WR36 - WR146 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 1.2 - 8.2 |
3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR68 - WR123 in the middle half, and WR36 - WR146 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Casey WashingtonCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR104 at the median, WR69 - WR136 in the middle half, and WR36 - WR161 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 5% 80% range: 0.9 - 8.3 |
3.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR104 at the median, WR69 - WR136 in the middle half, and WR36 - WR161 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Bryce LanceNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR102 at the median, WR74 - WR127 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR148 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 1.1 - 7.9 |
3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR102 at the median, WR74 - WR127 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR148 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Mitchell TinsleyCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR102 at the median, WR72 - WR133 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR156 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 1.0 - 7.9 |
3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR102 at the median, WR72 - WR133 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR156 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 10 2.6 - 3.3 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Cody WhiteLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR108 at the median, WR76 - WR136 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR157 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 1.0 - 7.9 |
3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR108 at the median, WR76 - WR136 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR157 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jauan JenningsMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR103 at the median, WR74 - WR129 in the middle half, and WR40 - WR151 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 1.1 - 7.9 |
3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR103 at the median, WR74 - WR129 in the middle half, and WR40 - WR151 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Brandin CooksSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR110 at the median, WR77 - WR137 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR159 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.9 - 8.2 |
3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR110 at the median, WR77 - WR137 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR159 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tutu AtwellLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR104 at the median, WR74 - WR132 in the middle half, and WR41 - WR153 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 1.0 - 7.7 |
3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR104 at the median, WR74 - WR132 in the middle half, and WR41 - WR153 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Marvin Mims Jr.DEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR103 at the median, WR77 - WR130 in the middle half, and WR40 - WR152 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 1.1 - 7.8 |
3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR103 at the median, WR77 - WR130 in the middle half, and WR40 - WR152 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tory HortonSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR107 at the median, WR75 - WR135 in the middle half, and WR40 - WR155 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 1.0 - 7.8 |
3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR107 at the median, WR75 - WR135 in the middle half, and WR40 - WR155 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR110 at the median, WR79 - WR136 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR157 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 1.0 - 7.9 |
3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR110 at the median, WR79 - WR136 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR157 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jacob CowingSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR108 at the median, WR79 - WR133 in the middle half, and WR43 - WR154 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 1.0 - 7.4 |
3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR108 at the median, WR79 - WR133 in the middle half, and WR43 - WR154 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tai FeltonMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR111 at the median, WR81 - WR138 in the middle half, and WR43 - WR160 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.9 - 7.3 |
3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR111 at the median, WR81 - WR138 in the middle half, and WR43 - WR160 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Theo Wease Jr.LAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR112 at the median, WR79 - WR140 in the middle half, and WR44 - WR162 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.9 - 7.2 |
3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR112 at the median, WR79 - WR140 in the middle half, and WR44 - WR162 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | CJ DanielsLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR112 at the median, WR78 - WR143 in the middle half, and WR44 - WR165 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.1 |
3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR112 at the median, WR78 - WR143 in the middle half, and WR44 - WR165 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tez JohnsonTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR109 at the median, WR82 - WR135 in the middle half, and WR45 - WR153 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 1.0 - 7.2 |
3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR109 at the median, WR82 - WR135 in the middle half, and WR45 - WR153 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Josh PalmerBUFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR115 at the median, WR79 - WR147 in the middle half, and WR42 - WR169 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.7 - 7.5 |
3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR115 at the median, WR79 - WR147 in the middle half, and WR42 - WR169 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Zay JonesARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR116 at the median, WR80 - WR146 in the middle half, and WR42 - WR168 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.7 - 7.5 |
3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR116 at the median, WR80 - WR146 in the middle half, and WR42 - WR168 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Xavier GipsonPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR119 at the median, WR81 - WR148 in the middle half, and WR45 - WR170 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.7 - 7.1 |
2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR119 at the median, WR81 - WR148 in the middle half, and WR45 - WR170 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Skyler BellBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR114 at the median, WR82 - WR142 in the middle half, and WR44 - WR164 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.2 |
2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR114 at the median, WR82 - WR142 in the middle half, and WR44 - WR164 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Cyrus AllenKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR118 at the median, WR87 - WR145 in the middle half, and WR44 - WR164 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.3 |
2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR118 at the median, WR87 - WR145 in the middle half, and WR44 - WR164 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Kyle WilliamsNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR115 at the median, WR86 - WR140 in the middle half, and WR48 - WR158 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.9 - 6.9 |
2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR115 at the median, WR86 - WR140 in the middle half, and WR48 - WR158 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Josh CameronJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR121 at the median, WR91 - WR147 in the middle half, and WR42 - WR165 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.5 |
2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR121 at the median, WR91 - WR147 in the middle half, and WR42 - WR165 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Cedric TillmanNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR122 at the median, WR87 - WR152 in the middle half, and WR45 - WR173 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.7 - 7.1 |
2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR122 at the median, WR87 - WR152 in the middle half, and WR45 - WR173 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | KeAndre Lambert-SmithLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR119 at the median, WR87 - WR147 in the middle half, and WR48 - WR167 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.8 - 6.8 |
2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR119 at the median, WR87 - WR147 in the middle half, and WR48 - WR167 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jamaal PritchettNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR118 at the median, WR82 - WR149 in the middle half, and WR47 - WR171 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.7 - 6.9 |
2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR118 at the median, WR82 - WR149 in the middle half, and WR47 - WR171 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Reggie VirgilARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR118 at the median, WR85 - WR146 in the middle half, and WR47 - WR166 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.8 - 6.8 |
2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR118 at the median, WR85 - WR146 in the middle half, and WR47 - WR166 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Olamide ZaccheausATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR121 at the median, WR92 - WR146 in the middle half, and WR47 - WR164 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.0 |
2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR121 at the median, WR92 - WR146 in the middle half, and WR47 - WR164 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Sterling ShepardNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR124 at the median, WR90 - WR153 in the middle half, and WR51 - WR173 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.7 - 6.3 |
2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR124 at the median, WR90 - WR153 in the middle half, and WR51 - WR173 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jalen TolbertMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR120 at the median, WR89 - WR148 in the middle half, and WR51 - WR167 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.8 - 6.2 |
2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR120 at the median, WR89 - WR148 in the middle half, and WR51 - WR167 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 11 1.9 - 2.5 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Devontez WalkerBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR121 at the median, WR92 - WR147 in the middle half, and WR54 - WR165 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.8 - 5.4 |
2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR121 at the median, WR92 - WR147 in the middle half, and WR54 - WR165 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tim PatrickNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR123 at the median, WR93 - WR150 in the middle half, and WR59 - WR170 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.7 - 5.0 |
2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR123 at the median, WR93 - WR150 in the middle half, and WR59 - WR170 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Charlie JonesNYGQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR124 at the median, WR90 - WR153 in the middle half, and WR54 - WR174 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.7 - 5.5 |
2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR124 at the median, WR90 - WR153 in the middle half, and WR54 - WR174 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Dillon BellMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR130 at the median, WR96 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR55 - WR177 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.6 - 5.7 |
2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR130 at the median, WR96 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR55 - WR177 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Coleman OwenGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR131 at the median, WR100 - WR156 in the middle half, and WR59 - WR172 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.7 - 5.0 |
2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR131 at the median, WR100 - WR156 in the middle half, and WR59 - WR172 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Kaden DavisCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR131 at the median, WR97 - WR158 in the middle half, and WR58 - WR176 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.6 - 5.2 |
2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR131 at the median, WR97 - WR158 in the middle half, and WR58 - WR176 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Barion BrownNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR128 at the median, WR100 - WR152 in the middle half, and WR64 - WR169 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.7 - 4.4 |
2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR128 at the median, WR100 - WR152 in the middle half, and WR64 - WR169 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jared WayneMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR129 at the median, WR100 - WR154 in the middle half, and WR63 - WR171 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.7 - 4.6 |
2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR129 at the median, WR100 - WR154 in the middle half, and WR63 - WR171 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jimmy Horn Jr.CLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR132 at the median, WR99 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR58 - WR177 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.6 - 5.1 |
2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR132 at the median, WR99 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR58 - WR177 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Kolbe KatsisDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR132 at the median, WR99 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR61 - WR177 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.6 - 4.8 |
2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR132 at the median, WR99 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR61 - WR177 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Dyami BrownWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR129 at the median, WR101 - WR152 in the middle half, and WR70 - WR168 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.8 - 4.1 |
2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR129 at the median, WR101 - WR152 in the middle half, and WR70 - WR168 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Justin WatsonKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR133 at the median, WR100 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR62 - WR177 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.6 - 4.7 |
2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR133 at the median, WR100 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR62 - WR177 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Elijah MoorePHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR133 at the median, WR101 - WR160 in the middle half, and WR67 - WR178 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.6 - 4.4 |
2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR133 at the median, WR101 - WR160 in the middle half, and WR67 - WR178 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jalen RoyalsKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR133 at the median, WR105 - WR156 in the middle half, and WR66 - WR171 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.7 - 4.4 |
2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR133 at the median, WR105 - WR156 in the middle half, and WR66 - WR171 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ja'Seem ReedCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR138 at the median, WR103 - WR162 in the middle half, and WR62 - WR179 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.6 - 4.7 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR138 at the median, WR103 - WR162 in the middle half, and WR62 - WR179 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | KaVontae TurpinDALQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR137 at the median, WR106 - WR163 in the middle half, and WR66 - WR178 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.6 - 4.3 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR137 at the median, WR106 - WR163 in the middle half, and WR66 - WR178 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Isaiah WilliamsNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR131 at the median, WR104 - WR153 in the middle half, and WR72 - WR169 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.7 - 3.9 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR131 at the median, WR104 - WR153 in the middle half, and WR72 - WR169 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Troy FranklinDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR133 at the median, WR106 - WR155 in the middle half, and WR72 - WR172 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.7 - 4.0 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR133 at the median, WR106 - WR155 in the middle half, and WR72 - WR172 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Colbie YoungCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR137 at the median, WR107 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR68 - WR177 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.6 - 4.2 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR137 at the median, WR107 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR68 - WR177 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Chris MooreBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR138 at the median, WR106 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR70 - WR178 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.6 - 4.0 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR138 at the median, WR106 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR70 - WR178 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Isaiah BondCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR137 at the median, WR108 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR77 - WR176 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.6 - 3.6 |
2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR137 at the median, WR108 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR77 - WR176 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ashton DulinIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR137 at the median, WR109 - WR160 in the middle half, and WR74 - WR176 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.6 - 3.7 |
2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR137 at the median, WR109 - WR160 in the middle half, and WR74 - WR176 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Xavier SmithSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR141 at the median, WR108 - WR166 in the middle half, and WR70 - WR181 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.5 - 4.1 |
2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR141 at the median, WR108 - WR166 in the middle half, and WR70 - WR181 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Brycen TremayneCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR134 at the median, WR108 - WR156 in the middle half, and WR75 - WR172 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.7 - 3.7 |
2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR134 at the median, WR108 - WR156 in the middle half, and WR75 - WR172 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | DeAndre CarterDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR140 at the median, WR110 - WR164 in the middle half, and WR72 - WR179 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.6 - 4.0 |
2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR140 at the median, WR110 - WR164 in the middle half, and WR72 - WR179 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ray-Ray McCloudNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR143 at the median, WR109 - WR168 in the middle half, and WR69 - WR183 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.5 - 4.0 |
2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR143 at the median, WR109 - WR168 in the middle half, and WR69 - WR183 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Deion BurksIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR139 at the median, WR113 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR80 - WR176 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.6 - 3.4 |
1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR139 at the median, WR113 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR80 - WR176 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Van JeffersonWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR142 at the median, WR111 - WR165 in the middle half, and WR76 - WR181 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.5 - 3.7 |
1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR142 at the median, WR111 - WR165 in the middle half, and WR76 - WR181 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jordan WhittingtonLARQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR144 at the median, WR112 - WR168 in the middle half, and WR74 - WR183 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.5 - 3.8 |
1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR144 at the median, WR112 - WR168 in the middle half, and WR74 - WR183 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ryan MillerNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR143 at the median, WR112 - WR166 in the middle half, and WR76 - WR181 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.5 - 3.6 |
1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR143 at the median, WR112 - WR166 in the middle half, and WR76 - WR181 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Simi FehokoARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR139 at the median, WR112 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR81 - WR175 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.6 - 3.3 |
1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR139 at the median, WR112 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR81 - WR175 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Zavion ThomasCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR136 at the median, WR109 - WR158 in the middle half, and WR79 - WR173 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.7 - 3.5 |
1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR136 at the median, WR109 - WR158 in the middle half, and WR79 - WR173 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 12 1.3 - 1.8 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Malik McClainNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR145 at the median, WR116 - WR166 in the middle half, and WR82 - WR180 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.5 - 3.2 |
1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR145 at the median, WR116 - WR166 in the middle half, and WR82 - WR180 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Chandler BrayboyNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR151 at the median, WR118 - WR173 in the middle half, and WR79 - WR187 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.4 |
1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR151 at the median, WR118 - WR173 in the middle half, and WR79 - WR187 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Bryce OliverHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR157 at the median, WR125 - WR177 in the middle half, and WR86 - WR189 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.0 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR157 at the median, WR125 - WR177 in the middle half, and WR86 - WR189 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Emmanuel Henderson Jr.SEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR153 at the median, WR124 - WR175 in the middle half, and WR87 - WR188 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.0 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR153 at the median, WR124 - WR175 in the middle half, and WR87 - WR188 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Malik BensonLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR151 at the median, WR124 - WR169 in the middle half, and WR93 - WR181 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.5 - 2.7 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR151 at the median, WR124 - WR169 in the middle half, and WR93 - WR181 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Lewis BondHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR154 at the median, WR123 - WR176 in the middle half, and WR87 - WR188 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.0 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR154 at the median, WR123 - WR176 in the middle half, and WR87 - WR188 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR154 at the median, WR128 - WR173 in the middle half, and WR95 - WR185 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.5 - 2.7 |
1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR154 at the median, WR128 - WR173 in the middle half, and WR95 - WR185 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Bo MeltonGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR149 at the median, WR126 - WR168 in the middle half, and WR99 - WR180 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.5 - 2.5 |
1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR149 at the median, WR126 - WR168 in the middle half, and WR99 - WR180 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Gary JenningsLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR160 at the median, WR130 - WR180 in the middle half, and WR93 - WR191 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.4 - 2.8 |
1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR160 at the median, WR130 - WR180 in the middle half, and WR93 - WR191 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ke'Shawn WilliamsCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR160 at the median, WR131 - WR179 in the middle half, and WR98 - WR190 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.4 - 2.5 |
1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR160 at the median, WR131 - WR179 in the middle half, and WR98 - WR190 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tim JonesJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR130 - WR180 in the middle half, and WR94 - WR190 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.4 - 2.7 |
1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR130 - WR180 in the middle half, and WR94 - WR190 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Myles PriceMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR156 at the median, WR133 - WR173 in the middle half, and WR105 - WR184 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.5 - 2.3 |
1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR156 at the median, WR133 - WR173 in the middle half, and WR105 - WR184 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tay MartinDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR164 at the median, WR141 - WR179 in the middle half, and WR109 - WR188 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.4 - 2.1 |
1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR164 at the median, WR141 - WR179 in the middle half, and WR109 - WR188 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jonathan MingoDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR163 at the median, WR140 - WR179 in the middle half, and WR112 - WR188 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.4 - 2.0 |
1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR163 at the median, WR140 - WR179 in the middle half, and WR112 - WR188 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Dalen CambreNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR165 at the median, WR139 - WR183 in the middle half, and WR104 - WR193 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.3 |
1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR165 at the median, WR139 - WR183 in the middle half, and WR104 - WR193 in the middle 80%. | ||||
Simulated finishes
This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.
Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.
Week 9 WR outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.
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Tier 1 Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR13Jaxon Smith-Njigba is in Tier 1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR13 at the median, WR5 - WR28 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR47 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 1 Puka NacuaWR13Puka Nacua is in Tier 1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR13 at the median, WR5 - WR30 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR51 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 2 CeeDee LambWR17CeeDee Lamb is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR17 at the median, WR7 - WR35 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR53 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 2 Ja'Marr ChaseWR17Ja'Marr Chase is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR17 at the median, WR6 - WR37 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR56 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 2 Amon-Ra St. BrownWR20Amon-Ra St. Brown is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR20 at the median, WR7 - WR45 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR67 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Malik NabersWR22Malik Nabers is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR22 at the median, WR8 - WR44 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR61 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Tee HigginsWR21Tee Higgins is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR21 at the median, WR9 - WR45 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR63 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Justin JeffersonWR24Justin Jefferson is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR10 - WR48 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR65 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Matthew GoldenWR24Matthew Golden is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR10 - WR46 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR63 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Drake LondonWR24Drake London is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR10 - WR46 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR63 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 DeVonta SmithWR30DeVonta Smith is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR30 at the median, WR11 - WR59 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR85 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Chris OlaveWR24Chris Olave is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR11 - WR47 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR65 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Christian WatsonWR28Christian Watson is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR28 at the median, WR11 - WR53 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR74 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Tetairoa McMillanWR30Tetairoa McMillan is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR30 at the median, WR12 - WR52 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR70 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Luther Burden IIIWR29Luther Burden III is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR13 - WR51 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR68 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Nico CollinsWR32Nico Collins is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR32 at the median, WR13 - WR57 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR77 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Garrett WilsonWR32Garrett Wilson is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR32 at the median, WR14 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR80 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 George PickensWR34George Pickens is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR34 at the median, WR14 - WR59 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR80 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Rashee RiceWR36Rashee Rice is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR36 at the median, WR14 - WR63 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR88 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Zay FlowersWR33Zay Flowers is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR33 at the median, WR15 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR72 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Parker WashingtonWR34Parker Washington is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR34 at the median, WR15 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR78 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Mike EvansWR37Mike Evans is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR37 at the median, WR15 - WR64 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR88 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Michael WilsonWR36Michael Wilson is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR36 at the median, WR15 - WR60 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR84 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Jameson WilliamsWR37Jameson Williams is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR37 at the median, WR16 - WR60 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR79 in the middle 80%.
Show WR25 - WR36
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Tier 5 Emeka EgbukaWR42Emeka Egbuka is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR42 at the median, WR18 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR95 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 A.J. BrownWR45A.J. Brown is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR18 - WR75 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR105 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Jalen CokerWR41Jalen Coker is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR41 at the median, WR19 - WR64 in the middle half, and WR8 - WR85 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 DJ MooreWR46DJ Moore is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR20 - WR71 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR99 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Stefon DiggsWR44Stefon Diggs is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR44 at the median, WR19 - WR67 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR88 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Omar Cooper Jr.WR45Omar Cooper Jr. is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR20 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR8 - WR93 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Denzel BostonWR45Denzel Boston is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR20 - WR71 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR96 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Devaughn VeleWR46Devaughn Vele is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR22 - WR67 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR88 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 KC Concepcion Jr.WR44KC Concepcion Jr. is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR44 at the median, WR22 - WR64 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR83 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Keenan AllenWR44Keenan Allen is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR44 at the median, WR21 - WR65 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR87 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Jaylen WaddleWR45Jaylen Waddle is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR22 - WR66 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR85 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Adonai MitchellWR47Adonai Mitchell is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR22 - WR70 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR94 in the middle 80%.
Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.
The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.
How these are made
This board was built from 2026 usage for 79% of the board, draft position for 99%, an outside projection for 55%, sportsbook props for 68%, an official status for 81%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Half PPR, 1QB.
Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured November 5, 2026 18:05 UTC. Model rankings-v1.5.2, board captured 2026-11-05.
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
