NE · Bye 11
A.J. Brown
A.J. Brown comes off the board at 2.08 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 2.09.
12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulated ADP
2.08
pick 20.1 overall, on average
Median pick
2.09
half of simulations take him by pick 21
Draft range
1.09 - 3.06
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 2.09 in 50% of simulations
Pick 21 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 3.04, where he is available in 17% of simulations.
Slot 4's remaining turns: 2.09 50% · 3.04 17% · 4.09 <1% · 5.04 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.04 and 3.01.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 2.07 | 62% |
| 2.08 | 56% |
| 2.09 | 50% |
| 2.10 | 45% |
| 2.11 | 40% |
| 2.12 | 34% |
| 3.01 | 29% |
| 3.02 | 25% |
| 3.03 | 21% |
| 3.04 | 17% |
| 3.05 | 14% |
| 3.06 | 12% |
| 3.07 | 9% |
| 3.08 | 7% |
| 3.09 | 5% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 1.09 | 2% | 161 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.10 | 2% | 153 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.11 | 2% | 178 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.12 | 2% | 205 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.01 | 3% | 254 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.02 | 3% | 261 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.03 | 3% | 337 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.04 | 4% | 379 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.05 | 4% | 442 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.06 | 5% | 518 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.07 | 6% | 562 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.08 | 6% | 572 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.09 | 6% | 567 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10 | 5% | 520 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11 | 6% | 560 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 5% | 492 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 4% | 400 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 4% | 402 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 3% | 348 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 3% | 340 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 3% | 252 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 3% | 278 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which A.J. Brown was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Drake London WR · ATL 4%
- Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 4%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 4%
- Jeremiyah Love RB · ARI 4%
Usually taken just after
- Drake London WR · ATL 4%
- Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 3%
- Jeremiyah Love RB · ARI 3%
- Nico Collins WR · HOU 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.
A.J. Brown was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.
We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.1
- Generated
- August 20, 2026
- Player dataset
- sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.