CIN · Bye 6 · Rookie
Colbie Young
LMD WR Tier 11 for Week 9 · 2.1 projected Half PPR points · WR154 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 2.1 points this week, WR Tier 11. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 0.6 - 4.2 points. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 11
1.9 - 2.5 projected points
Rest of season
WR154
310th by projected points
Projected
2.1
week 9, Half PPR
Top 12
0%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 1% at WR
Movement
↓ 10
WR134 in Week 8, WR144 now
Should you start Colbie Young in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Colbie Young WR144 for Week 9, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 1% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.80 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.16 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.45 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.01 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Colbie Young is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Colbie Young has averaged -1.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 2 | — | — | 1.2 | — |
| Wk 3 | @ PIT | 2.1 | 0.7 | -1.4 |
| Wk 5 | @ MIA | 1.6 | Pending | — |
| Wk 7 | @ BAL | 1.7 | Pending | — |
| Wk 8 | vs TEN | 2.3 | Pending | — |
| Wk 9 | @ ATL | 2.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 25.7 points this season, WR154. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 2.1 a game over 10 remaining games.
Per game
2.1 / game
Over 10 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Colbie Young #268 in 1QB and #274 in Superflex, WR106 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 24.
1QB
#268
WR106 · tier 63 · of 300 · rookie 48 of 52
Superflex
#274
WR106 · tier 56 · of 307 · rookie 50 of 52
- Draft capital Round 4, pick 140 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.04
pick 39.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.05
half of simulations take him by pick 41
Draft range
3.05 - 4.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 8,336 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.05 in 61% of simulations
Pick 41 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.12 and 4.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.03 | 70% |
| 4.04 | 66% |
| 4.05 | 61% |
| 4.06 | 57% |
| 4.07 | 52% |
| 4.08 | 46% |
| 4.09 | 41% |
| 4.10 | 35% |
| 4.11 | 28% |
| 4.12 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.05 | 2% | 215 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 2% | 190 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 2% | 213 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 2% | 193 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 2% | 208 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 2% | 169 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 2% | 199 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 2% | 208 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 4% | 371 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 4% | 372 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 4% | 415 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 5% | 549 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 5% | 513 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 6% | 561 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 6% | 609 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 6% | 626 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 6% | 579 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 8336 simulations in which Colbie Young was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Bryce Lance WR · NO 5%
- Skyler Bell WR · BUF 5%
- Kaden Wetjen WR · PIT 5%
- Reggie Virgil WR · ARI 4%
Usually taken just after
- Bryce Lance WR · NO 5%
- Kaden Wetjen WR · PIT 5%
- Skyler Bell WR · BUF 5%
- Reggie Virgil WR · ARI 5%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Colbie Young was selected in 8336 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.