NFL · 2026 Week 9
Week 9 Standard WR Rankings
Standard, 1QB · 172 players projected · updated November 5, 2026
How these rankings work
How these rankings are built
We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.
We then update those expectations for Week 9 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.
We then simulate the week 4,000 times. The projected fantasy points those simulations produce set the order and the tiers.
This board is priced in Standard. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.
How the tiers work
Players are grouped into tiers at each position by projected fantasy points. A new tier starts where the projections separate, not after a set number of players, so tiers vary in size and a player who stands apart can be a tier on his own.
The breaks come from the best grouping of each position's projections, the method behind Jenks natural breaks, with gaps judged against how widely weekly scores vary at that position. The rule is the same every week and nobody places players by hand.
Within a tier, players are listed by projected points, but the gaps between them are small. They shouldn't decide a start/sit on their own.
A tier's band is the range of its players' projected points. It isn't a range of outcomes.
A player's 80% range is the middle of his simulated scores: the model puts 10% of outcomes below it and 10% above. Real scores can land outside it.
Players in neighbouring tiers often have overlapping ranges. A higher tier means more projected points, not a guarantee of outscoring everyone below it.
What the percentages mean
For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.
- Top 3
- how often he finishes among the top three at his position
- Top 12
- how often he finishes in the top 12
- Top 24
- how often he finishes in the top 24
A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.
How often a strong start lasts
Since 1999, 65% of WRs inside the top 12 through Week 8 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 324 WR-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.
What stands out this week
172 WRs in 12 tiers for Week 9. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads at 14.3 projected points.
Tiers break where projected points separate, and the differences inside a tier are small. Each 80% range is the middle 80% of that player's simulated scores; real scores can fall outside it.
| Pos | Player | Proj | Outcome profile | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 13.4 - 14.3 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR14 at the median, WR5 - WR33 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR48 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 20%Top 12: 48%Top 24: 67% 80% range: 4.9 - 27.0 |
14.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR14 at the median, WR5 - WR33 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR48 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Puka NacuaLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 18% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 37%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR15 at the median, WR5 - WR37 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 18%Top 12: 44%Top 24: 63% 80% range: 4.2 - 25.4 |
13.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 18% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 37%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR15 at the median, WR5 - WR37 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR53 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 2 11.4 - 12.2 projected points | |||||||
| WR | CeeDee LambDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR18 at the median, WR7 - WR40 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 39%Top 24: 58% 80% range: 4.1 - 22.9 |
12.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR18 at the median, WR7 - WR40 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR53 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ja'Marr ChaseCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 44%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR19 at the median, WR7 - WR42 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR57 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 38%Top 24: 56% 80% range: 3.8 - 22.9 |
11.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 44%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR19 at the median, WR7 - WR42 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR57 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Amon-Ra St. BrownDETQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 48%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR23 at the median, WR8 - WR48 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 35%Top 24: 52% 80% range: 3.0 - 22.9 |
11.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 48%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR23 at the median, WR8 - WR48 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR68 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 3 9.7 - 10.6 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Tee HigginsCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR9 - WR45 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR61 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 51% 80% range: 3.4 - 20.5 |
10.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR9 - WR45 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR61 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Malik NabersNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR25 at the median, WR9 - WR46 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR61 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 32%Top 24: 49% 80% range: 3.5 - 20.7 |
10.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR25 at the median, WR9 - WR46 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR61 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Drake LondonATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR26 at the median, WR11 - WR46 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR61 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 29%Top 24: 48% 80% range: 3.5 - 19.0 |
10.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR26 at the median, WR11 - WR46 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR61 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Matthew GoldenGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR28 at the median, WR11 - WR47 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR62 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 29%Top 24: 47% 80% range: 3.4 - 18.9 |
10.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR28 at the median, WR11 - WR47 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR62 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | DeVonta SmithPHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR35 at the median, WR11 - WR60 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 42% 80% range: 2.2 - 20.6 |
9.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR35 at the median, WR11 - WR60 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR86 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Christian WatsonGBQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR31 at the median, WR11 - WR52 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR72 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 44% 80% range: 2.8 - 19.5 |
9.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR31 at the median, WR11 - WR52 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR72 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Justin JeffersonMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR11 - WR50 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR66 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 29%Top 24: 46% 80% range: 3.1 - 19.4 |
9.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR11 - WR50 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR66 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Chris OlaveNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR28 at the median, WR12 - WR48 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 45% 80% range: 3.3 - 18.5 |
9.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR28 at the median, WR12 - WR48 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR65 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 4 8.0 - 8.9 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Tetairoa McMillanCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR35 at the median, WR13 - WR52 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 39% 80% range: 2.9 - 17.4 |
8.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR35 at the median, WR13 - WR52 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR71 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Nico CollinsHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR36 at the median, WR14 - WR57 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR76 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 39% 80% range: 2.6 - 17.7 |
8.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR36 at the median, WR14 - WR57 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR76 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Luther Burden IIICHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR33 at the median, WR14 - WR51 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 40% 80% range: 3.1 - 16.8 |
8.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR33 at the median, WR14 - WR51 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR68 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | George PickensDALQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR37 at the median, WR14 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR80 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 38% 80% range: 2.4 - 17.7 |
8.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR37 at the median, WR14 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR80 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Garrett WilsonNYJQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR37 at the median, WR15 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR80 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 38% 80% range: 2.4 - 17.3 |
8.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR37 at the median, WR15 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR80 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Parker WashingtonJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR36 at the median, WR14 - WR56 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR75 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 39% 80% range: 2.7 - 17.2 |
8.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR36 at the median, WR14 - WR56 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR75 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Mike EvansSFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 63%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR39 at the median, WR15 - WR63 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 37% 80% range: 2.2 - 17.3 |
8.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 63%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR39 at the median, WR15 - WR63 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR86 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Rashee RiceKCQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR41 at the median, WR16 - WR65 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 35% 80% range: 2.0 - 17.6 |
8.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR41 at the median, WR16 - WR65 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR90 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jameson WilliamsDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 64%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR39 at the median, WR15 - WR59 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR77 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 36% 80% range: 2.6 - 16.6 |
8.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 64%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR39 at the median, WR15 - WR59 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR77 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Zay FlowersBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR38 at the median, WR17 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR72 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 35% 80% range: 2.8 - 15.6 |
8.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR38 at the median, WR17 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR72 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Michael WilsonARIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR40 at the median, WR16 - WR61 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 34% 80% range: 2.3 - 15.8 |
8.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR40 at the median, WR16 - WR61 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR85 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 5 7.1 - 7.5 projected points | |||||||
| WR | A.J. BrownNEQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR18 - WR75 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 18%Top 24: 31% 80% range: 1.6 - 15.8 |
7.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR18 - WR75 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR105 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Emeka EgbukaTBQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR44 at the median, WR19 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 32% 80% range: 1.9 - 15.3 |
7.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR44 at the median, WR19 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR95 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | DJ MooreBUFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR19 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 30% 80% range: 1.9 - 15.3 |
7.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR19 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR98 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jalen CokerCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR44 at the median, WR20 - WR65 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 30% 80% range: 2.2 - 14.7 |
7.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR44 at the median, WR20 - WR65 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR86 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Denzel BostonCLEQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR20 - WR70 in the middle half, and WR8 - WR94 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 30% 80% range: 1.9 - 14.7 |
7.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR20 - WR70 in the middle half, and WR8 - WR94 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR20 - WR67 in the middle half, and WR8 - WR91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 29% 80% range: 2.1 - 14.6 |
7.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR20 - WR67 in the middle half, and WR8 - WR91 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 6 6.3 - 6.9 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Stefon DiggsWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR48 at the median, WR20 - WR70 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 30% 80% range: 2.0 - 14.1 |
6.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR48 at the median, WR20 - WR70 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR92 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Adonai MitchellNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR22 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 28% 80% range: 2.0 - 13.9 |
6.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR22 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR92 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Rome OdunzeCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR22 - WR65 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 28% 80% range: 2.2 - 13.2 |
6.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR22 - WR65 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR86 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Devaughn VeleNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR48 at the median, WR23 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 27% 80% range: 2.1 - 13.4 |
6.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR48 at the median, WR23 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR90 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jaylen WaddleDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR48 at the median, WR24 - WR67 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 26% 80% range: 2.2 - 13.0 |
6.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR48 at the median, WR24 - WR67 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR87 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Deebo Samuel Sr.SFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR51 at the median, WR23 - WR79 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 26% 80% range: 1.6 - 14.2 |
6.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR51 at the median, WR23 - WR79 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR105 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Malik WashingtonMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR49 at the median, WR23 - WR70 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 26% 80% range: 2.1 - 13.3 |
6.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR49 at the median, WR23 - WR70 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR90 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | KC Concepcion Jr.CLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR24 - WR65 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR84 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 25% 80% range: 2.2 - 12.8 |
6.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR24 - WR65 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR84 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Keenan AllenIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR48 at the median, WR24 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 25% 80% range: 2.0 - 12.6 |
6.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR48 at the median, WR24 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR91 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tre TuckerLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR49 at the median, WR26 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR89 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 24% 80% range: 2.1 - 12.7 |
6.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR49 at the median, WR26 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR89 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 7 5.3 - 6.1 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Jordan AddisonMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR51 at the median, WR27 - WR72 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR94 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 23% 80% range: 1.9 - 12.1 |
6.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR51 at the median, WR27 - WR72 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR94 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Makai LemonPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR50 at the median, WR28 - WR71 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 22% 80% range: 2.0 - 11.9 |
6.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR50 at the median, WR28 - WR71 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR91 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ladd McConkeyLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR51 at the median, WR30 - WR71 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 21% 80% range: 2.0 - 12.3 |
6.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR51 at the median, WR30 - WR71 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR92 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Caleb DouglasMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR53 at the median, WR26 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR102 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 24% 80% range: 1.7 - 12.6 |
6.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR53 at the median, WR26 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR102 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | DeMario DouglasNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR53 at the median, WR25 - WR76 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 24% 80% range: 1.8 - 12.1 |
6.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR53 at the median, WR25 - WR76 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR98 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jakobi MeyersJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR27 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 23% 80% range: 1.7 - 12.1 |
5.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR27 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR12 - WR101 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Xavier WorthyKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR57 at the median, WR27 - WR80 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 23% 80% range: 1.7 - 12.1 |
5.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR57 at the median, WR27 - WR80 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR103 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Josh DownsIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR30 - WR75 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 21% 80% range: 1.9 - 11.7 |
5.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR54 at the median, WR30 - WR75 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR96 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ryan FlournoyDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR56 at the median, WR28 - WR79 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR102 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 23% 80% range: 1.7 - 11.7 |
5.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR56 at the median, WR28 - WR79 in the middle half, and WR13 - WR102 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Antonio WilliamsWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR56 at the median, WR32 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR14 - WR100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 20% 80% range: 1.8 - 11.2 |
5.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR56 at the median, WR32 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR14 - WR100 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Khalil ShakirBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR57 at the median, WR33 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR14 - WR101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 19% 80% range: 1.7 - 11.2 |
5.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR57 at the median, WR33 - WR78 in the middle half, and WR14 - WR101 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Courtland SuttonDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR61 at the median, WR30 - WR84 in the middle half, and WR15 - WR105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 20% 80% range: 1.6 - 11.0 |
5.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR61 at the median, WR30 - WR84 in the middle half, and WR15 - WR105 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 8 3.9 - 5.0 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Treylon BurksWASQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR65 at the median, WR35 - WR95 in the middle half, and WR16 - WR122 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 18% 80% range: 1.3 - 11.0 |
5.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR65 at the median, WR35 - WR95 in the middle half, and WR16 - WR122 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Dontayvion WicksPHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR65 at the median, WR38 - WR95 in the middle half, and WR15 - WR124 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 17% 80% range: 1.2 - 10.9 |
5.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR65 at the median, WR38 - WR95 in the middle half, and WR15 - WR124 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jahan DotsonATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR65 at the median, WR39 - WR88 in the middle half, and WR18 - WR111 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 16% 80% range: 1.5 - 10.2 |
4.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR65 at the median, WR39 - WR88 in the middle half, and WR18 - WR111 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Malachi FieldsNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR67 at the median, WR41 - WR91 in the middle half, and WR19 - WR113 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 15% 80% range: 1.4 - 10.0 |
4.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR67 at the median, WR41 - WR91 in the middle half, and WR19 - WR113 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Quentin JohnstonLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR64 at the median, WR42 - WR89 in the middle half, and WR19 - WR112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 14% 80% range: 1.5 - 9.9 |
4.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR64 at the median, WR42 - WR89 in the middle half, and WR19 - WR112 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Marvin Harrison Jr.HOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR71 at the median, WR41 - WR97 in the middle half, and WR18 - WR122 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 15% 80% range: 1.2 - 10.0 |
4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR71 at the median, WR41 - WR97 in the middle half, and WR18 - WR122 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Rashid ShaheedSEAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR69 at the median, WR42 - WR97 in the middle half, and WR19 - WR123 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 14% 80% range: 1.2 - 10.0 |
4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR69 at the median, WR42 - WR97 in the middle half, and WR19 - WR123 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Chris Godwin Jr.TB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR64 at the median, WR43 - WR87 in the middle half, and WR20 - WR109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 13% 80% range: 1.5 - 9.7 |
4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR64 at the median, WR43 - WR87 in the middle half, and WR20 - WR109 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Xavier HutchinsonHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR68 at the median, WR42 - WR92 in the middle half, and WR20 - WR114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 14% 80% range: 1.4 - 9.6 |
4.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR68 at the median, WR42 - WR92 in the middle half, and WR20 - WR114 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Darius CooperPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR74 at the median, WR44 - WR100 in the middle half, and WR21 - WR121 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 14% 80% range: 1.3 - 9.4 |
4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR74 at the median, WR44 - WR100 in the middle half, and WR21 - WR121 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jalen NailorLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR75 at the median, WR47 - WR102 in the middle half, and WR21 - WR126 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 13% 80% range: 1.2 - 9.3 |
4.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR75 at the median, WR47 - WR102 in the middle half, and WR21 - WR126 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Cooper KuppSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR74 at the median, WR47 - WR99 in the middle half, and WR21 - WR122 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 13% 80% range: 1.3 - 9.3 |
4.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR74 at the median, WR47 - WR99 in the middle half, and WR21 - WR122 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tre HarrisLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR70 at the median, WR47 - WR94 in the middle half, and WR23 - WR117 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11% 80% range: 1.3 - 9.1 |
4.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR70 at the median, WR47 - WR94 in the middle half, and WR23 - WR117 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Keon ColemanBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR75 at the median, WR48 - WR100 in the middle half, and WR23 - WR124 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11% 80% range: 1.2 - 9.0 |
4.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR75 at the median, WR48 - WR100 in the middle half, and WR23 - WR124 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Chris BellMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR74 at the median, WR49 - WR98 in the middle half, and WR24 - WR121 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 11% 80% range: 1.3 - 8.7 |
3.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR74 at the median, WR49 - WR98 in the middle half, and WR24 - WR121 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 9 2.9 - 3.7 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Travis HunterJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR87 at the median, WR52 - WR118 in the middle half, and WR24 - WR144 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11% 80% range: 0.9 - 8.9 |
3.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR87 at the median, WR52 - WR118 in the middle half, and WR24 - WR144 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tank DellHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR84 at the median, WR53 - WR113 in the middle half, and WR25 - WR141 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10% 80% range: 0.9 - 8.6 |
3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR84 at the median, WR53 - WR113 in the middle half, and WR25 - WR141 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Laquon TreadwellIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR78 at the median, WR54 - WR103 in the middle half, and WR26 - WR125 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 9% 80% range: 1.2 - 8.4 |
3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR78 at the median, WR54 - WR103 in the middle half, and WR26 - WR125 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Savion WilliamsGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR85 at the median, WR54 - WR116 in the middle half, and WR26 - WR139 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% 80% range: 1.0 - 8.4 |
3.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR85 at the median, WR54 - WR116 in the middle half, and WR26 - WR139 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Efton Chism IIINE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR83 at the median, WR55 - WR109 in the middle half, and WR25 - WR132 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% 80% range: 1.1 - 8.6 |
3.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR83 at the median, WR55 - WR109 in the middle half, and WR25 - WR132 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Kalif RaymondCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR83 at the median, WR57 - WR108 in the middle half, and WR27 - WR131 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% 80% range: 1.1 - 8.3 |
3.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR83 at the median, WR57 - WR108 in the middle half, and WR27 - WR131 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Brennan PresleyLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR92 at the median, WR56 - WR124 in the middle half, and WR26 - WR151 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% 80% range: 0.8 - 8.4 |
3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR92 at the median, WR56 - WR124 in the middle half, and WR26 - WR151 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Odell Beckham Jr.MIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR90 at the median, WR57 - WR124 in the middle half, and WR26 - WR149 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% 80% range: 0.8 - 8.4 |
3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR90 at the median, WR57 - WR124 in the middle half, and WR26 - WR149 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ted Hurst IIITB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR84 at the median, WR57 - WR111 in the middle half, and WR26 - WR133 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 9% 80% range: 1.1 - 8.4 |
3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR84 at the median, WR57 - WR111 in the middle half, and WR26 - WR133 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jerry JeudyCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR82 at the median, WR57 - WR107 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR130 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 1.1 - 7.8 |
3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR82 at the median, WR57 - WR107 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR130 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Brian Thomas Jr.JAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR92 at the median, WR60 - WR119 in the middle half, and WR27 - WR141 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 0.9 - 8.2 |
3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR92 at the median, WR60 - WR119 in the middle half, and WR27 - WR141 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Christian KirkSFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR58 - WR131 in the middle half, and WR26 - WR158 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 10% 80% range: 0.7 - 8.6 |
3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR58 - WR131 in the middle half, and WR26 - WR158 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Isaac TeSlaaDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR63 - WR124 in the middle half, and WR27 - WR146 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 0.8 - 8.2 |
3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR63 - WR124 in the middle half, and WR27 - WR146 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Marquise BrownPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR87 at the median, WR60 - WR116 in the middle half, and WR29 - WR140 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 0.9 - 7.8 |
3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR87 at the median, WR60 - WR116 in the middle half, and WR29 - WR140 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Camden BrownDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR93 at the median, WR61 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR29 - WR149 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.8 |
3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR93 at the median, WR61 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR29 - WR149 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | C.J. WilliamsJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR94 at the median, WR61 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR29 - WR150 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.7 |
3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR94 at the median, WR61 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR29 - WR150 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Phillip Dorsett IILV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR62 - WR131 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR156 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 0.7 - 7.8 |
3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR62 - WR131 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR156 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Dont'e Thornton Jr.LV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR94 at the median, WR60 - WR126 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR151 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.9 |
3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR94 at the median, WR60 - WR126 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR151 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Dohnte MeyersCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR65 - WR123 in the middle half, and WR28 - WR144 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 0.9 - 8.0 |
3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR65 - WR123 in the middle half, and WR28 - WR144 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Michael BandyDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR61 - WR128 in the middle half, and WR29 - WR154 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% 80% range: 0.7 - 7.9 |
3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR61 - WR128 in the middle half, and WR29 - WR154 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Rashod BatemanBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR92 at the median, WR65 - WR116 in the middle half, and WR33 - WR138 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 1.0 - 7.5 |
3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR92 at the median, WR65 - WR116 in the middle half, and WR33 - WR138 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ja'Kobi LaneBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR65 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR149 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.8 |
3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR65 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR30 - WR149 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jordan WatkinsSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR95 at the median, WR65 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR31 - WR149 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.6 |
2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR95 at the median, WR65 - WR125 in the middle half, and WR31 - WR149 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | David Sills VTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR66 - WR128 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR152 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.5 |
2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR66 - WR128 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR152 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Konata MumpfieldLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR67 - WR122 in the middle half, and WR33 - WR144 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 0.9 - 7.4 |
2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR67 - WR122 in the middle half, and WR33 - WR144 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Darnell MooneyNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR67 - WR123 in the middle half, and WR31 - WR144 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 0.9 - 7.6 |
2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR96 at the median, WR67 - WR123 in the middle half, and WR31 - WR144 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 10 2.1 - 2.8 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Kayshon BoutteHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR68 - WR122 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR144 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 0.9 - 7.5 |
2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR97 at the median, WR68 - WR122 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR144 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jack BechLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR101 at the median, WR70 - WR132 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR154 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 5% 80% range: 0.7 - 7.2 |
2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR101 at the median, WR70 - WR132 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR154 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Casey WashingtonCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR103 at the median, WR69 - WR136 in the middle half, and WR33 - WR161 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% 80% range: 0.6 - 7.4 |
2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR103 at the median, WR69 - WR136 in the middle half, and WR33 - WR161 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | John Metchie IIICAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR99 at the median, WR71 - WR126 in the middle half, and WR34 - WR149 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.3 |
2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR99 at the median, WR71 - WR126 in the middle half, and WR34 - WR149 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Cody WhiteLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR107 at the median, WR75 - WR135 in the middle half, and WR33 - WR157 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% 80% range: 0.7 - 7.3 |
2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR107 at the median, WR75 - WR135 in the middle half, and WR33 - WR157 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jauan JenningsMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR104 at the median, WR75 - WR130 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR152 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.1 |
2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR104 at the median, WR75 - WR130 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR152 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Brandin CooksSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR109 at the median, WR77 - WR136 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR158 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% 80% range: 0.7 - 7.5 |
2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR109 at the median, WR77 - WR136 in the middle half, and WR32 - WR158 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Bryce LanceNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR103 at the median, WR74 - WR128 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR149 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.1 |
2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR103 at the median, WR74 - WR128 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR149 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Mitchell TinsleyCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR102 at the median, WR71 - WR133 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR156 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% 80% range: 0.7 - 6.9 |
2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR102 at the median, WR71 - WR133 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR156 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tutu AtwellLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR103 at the median, WR74 - WR131 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR152 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% 80% range: 0.8 - 6.9 |
2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR103 at the median, WR74 - WR131 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR152 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR109 at the median, WR78 - WR135 in the middle half, and WR34 - WR156 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% 80% range: 0.7 - 7.3 |
2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR109 at the median, WR78 - WR135 in the middle half, and WR34 - WR156 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tory HortonSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR107 at the median, WR75 - WR135 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR155 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.7 - 7.2 |
2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR107 at the median, WR75 - WR135 in the middle half, and WR35 - WR155 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jacob CowingSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR105 at the median, WR77 - WR130 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR152 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.8 - 6.9 |
2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR105 at the median, WR77 - WR130 in the middle half, and WR37 - WR152 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Marvin Mims Jr.DEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR104 at the median, WR78 - WR131 in the middle half, and WR36 - WR153 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% 80% range: 0.8 - 7.1 |
2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR104 at the median, WR78 - WR131 in the middle half, and WR36 - WR153 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | CJ DanielsLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR112 at the median, WR78 - WR143 in the middle half, and WR40 - WR165 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.6 - 6.6 |
2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR112 at the median, WR78 - WR143 in the middle half, and WR40 - WR165 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tez JohnsonTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR106 at the median, WR78 - WR131 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR150 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.8 - 6.8 |
2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR106 at the median, WR78 - WR131 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR150 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Josh PalmerBUFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR113 at the median, WR77 - WR145 in the middle half, and WR38 - WR167 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% 80% range: 0.6 - 6.8 |
2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR113 at the median, WR77 - WR145 in the middle half, and WR38 - WR167 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Zay JonesARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR116 at the median, WR80 - WR146 in the middle half, and WR38 - WR168 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% 80% range: 0.5 - 6.8 |
2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR116 at the median, WR80 - WR146 in the middle half, and WR38 - WR168 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Kyle WilliamsNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR111 at the median, WR83 - WR136 in the middle half, and WR42 - WR155 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.7 - 6.5 |
2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR111 at the median, WR83 - WR136 in the middle half, and WR42 - WR155 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tai FeltonMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR111 at the median, WR80 - WR138 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR159 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.7 - 6.6 |
2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR111 at the median, WR80 - WR138 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR159 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Theo Wease Jr.LAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR112 at the median, WR79 - WR140 in the middle half, and WR42 - WR162 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.6 - 6.0 |
2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR112 at the median, WR79 - WR140 in the middle half, and WR42 - WR162 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Xavier GipsonPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR119 at the median, WR81 - WR148 in the middle half, and WR41 - WR170 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.5 - 6.4 |
2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR119 at the median, WR81 - WR148 in the middle half, and WR41 - WR170 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Skyler BellBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR114 at the median, WR82 - WR142 in the middle half, and WR41 - WR164 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.6 - 6.3 |
2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR114 at the median, WR82 - WR142 in the middle half, and WR41 - WR164 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Cyrus AllenKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR120 at the median, WR89 - WR146 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR165 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.6 - 6.8 |
2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR120 at the median, WR89 - WR146 in the middle half, and WR39 - WR165 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Cedric TillmanNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR122 at the median, WR87 - WR152 in the middle half, and WR43 - WR173 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.5 - 5.8 |
2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR122 at the median, WR87 - WR152 in the middle half, and WR43 - WR173 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jamaal PritchettNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR117 at the median, WR83 - WR149 in the middle half, and WR45 - WR171 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.5 - 5.4 |
2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR117 at the median, WR83 - WR149 in the middle half, and WR45 - WR171 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Josh CameronJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR125 at the median, WR94 - WR150 in the middle half, and WR36 - WR167 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.6 - 7.0 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR125 at the median, WR94 - WR150 in the middle half, and WR36 - WR167 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | KeAndre Lambert-SmithLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR121 at the median, WR88 - WR149 in the middle half, and WR46 - WR168 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.5 - 5.1 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR121 at the median, WR88 - WR149 in the middle half, and WR46 - WR168 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Reggie VirgilARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR120 at the median, WR87 - WR148 in the middle half, and WR47 - WR167 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.6 - 4.7 |
2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR120 at the median, WR87 - WR148 in the middle half, and WR47 - WR167 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 11 1.5 - 2.0 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Devontez WalkerBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR120 at the median, WR91 - WR146 in the middle half, and WR53 - WR165 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.6 - 3.9 |
2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR120 at the median, WR91 - WR146 in the middle half, and WR53 - WR165 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Sterling ShepardNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR124 at the median, WR90 - WR154 in the middle half, and WR50 - WR173 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.5 - 4.5 |
2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR124 at the median, WR90 - WR154 in the middle half, and WR50 - WR173 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jalen TolbertMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR120 at the median, WR89 - WR148 in the middle half, and WR50 - WR167 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.6 - 4.5 |
2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR120 at the median, WR89 - WR148 in the middle half, and WR50 - WR167 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Charlie JonesNYGQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR122 at the median, WR88 - WR152 in the middle half, and WR53 - WR173 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.5 - 4.1 |
2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR122 at the median, WR88 - WR152 in the middle half, and WR53 - WR173 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Olamide ZaccheausATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR127 at the median, WR98 - WR152 in the middle half, and WR42 - WR168 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.5 - 6.5 |
1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR127 at the median, WR98 - WR152 in the middle half, and WR42 - WR168 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tim PatrickNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR123 at the median, WR93 - WR150 in the middle half, and WR58 - WR170 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.5 - 3.6 |
1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR123 at the median, WR93 - WR150 in the middle half, and WR58 - WR170 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Dillon BellMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR130 at the median, WR96 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR54 - WR177 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.4 - 4.1 |
1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR130 at the median, WR96 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR54 - WR177 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Coleman OwenGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR131 at the median, WR100 - WR156 in the middle half, and WR59 - WR173 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.5 - 3.6 |
1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR131 at the median, WR100 - WR156 in the middle half, and WR59 - WR173 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Kaden DavisCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR132 at the median, WR96 - WR158 in the middle half, and WR58 - WR176 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.8 |
1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR132 at the median, WR96 - WR158 in the middle half, and WR58 - WR176 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Barion BrownNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR127 at the median, WR99 - WR151 in the middle half, and WR64 - WR168 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.5 - 3.2 |
1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR127 at the median, WR99 - WR151 in the middle half, and WR64 - WR168 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jared WayneMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR128 at the median, WR99 - WR153 in the middle half, and WR62 - WR170 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.5 - 3.3 |
1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR128 at the median, WR99 - WR153 in the middle half, and WR62 - WR170 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jimmy Horn Jr.CLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR132 at the median, WR99 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR57 - WR177 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.7 |
1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR132 at the median, WR99 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR57 - WR177 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Kolbe KatsisDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR132 at the median, WR99 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR61 - WR177 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.5 |
1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR132 at the median, WR99 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR61 - WR177 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ja'Seem ReedCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR138 at the median, WR103 - WR162 in the middle half, and WR61 - WR179 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.4 |
1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR138 at the median, WR103 - WR162 in the middle half, and WR61 - WR179 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Dyami BrownWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR129 at the median, WR101 - WR152 in the middle half, and WR70 - WR168 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.5 - 2.9 |
1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR129 at the median, WR101 - WR152 in the middle half, and WR70 - WR168 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | KaVontae TurpinDALQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR135 at the median, WR103 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR64 - WR177 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.2 |
1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR135 at the median, WR103 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR64 - WR177 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Justin WatsonKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR133 at the median, WR100 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR62 - WR177 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.4 |
1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR133 at the median, WR100 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR62 - WR177 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Isaiah WilliamsNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR129 at the median, WR102 - WR151 in the middle half, and WR70 - WR167 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.6 - 2.9 |
1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR129 at the median, WR102 - WR151 in the middle half, and WR70 - WR167 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jalen RoyalsKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR134 at the median, WR106 - WR157 in the middle half, and WR66 - WR172 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.5 - 3.1 |
1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR134 at the median, WR106 - WR157 in the middle half, and WR66 - WR172 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ashton DulinIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR136 at the median, WR107 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR73 - WR175 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.5 - 2.7 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR136 at the median, WR107 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR73 - WR175 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Xavier SmithSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR141 at the median, WR108 - WR166 in the middle half, and WR70 - WR181 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.0 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR141 at the median, WR108 - WR166 in the middle half, and WR70 - WR181 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Elijah MoorePHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR135 at the median, WR102 - WR162 in the middle half, and WR68 - WR179 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.1 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR135 at the median, WR102 - WR162 in the middle half, and WR68 - WR179 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Troy FranklinDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR134 at the median, WR107 - WR157 in the middle half, and WR73 - WR172 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.5 - 2.8 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR134 at the median, WR107 - WR157 in the middle half, and WR73 - WR172 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Brycen TremayneCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR134 at the median, WR107 - WR156 in the middle half, and WR75 - WR171 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.5 - 2.7 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR134 at the median, WR107 - WR156 in the middle half, and WR75 - WR171 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Colbie YoungCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR138 at the median, WR108 - WR162 in the middle half, and WR68 - WR178 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.4 - 3.0 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR138 at the median, WR108 - WR162 in the middle half, and WR68 - WR178 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | DeAndre CarterDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR140 at the median, WR110 - WR164 in the middle half, and WR72 - WR179 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.4 - 2.9 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR140 at the median, WR110 - WR164 in the middle half, and WR72 - WR179 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Chris MooreBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR137 at the median, WR105 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR69 - WR178 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.4 - 2.9 |
1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR137 at the median, WR105 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR69 - WR178 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Deion BurksIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR138 at the median, WR111 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR78 - WR175 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.5 - 2.5 |
1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR138 at the median, WR111 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR78 - WR175 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Isaiah BondCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR136 at the median, WR107 - WR160 in the middle half, and WR76 - WR176 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.4 - 2.6 |
1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR136 at the median, WR107 - WR160 in the middle half, and WR76 - WR176 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Van JeffersonWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR143 at the median, WR111 - WR165 in the middle half, and WR76 - WR181 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.4 - 2.6 |
1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR143 at the median, WR111 - WR165 in the middle half, and WR76 - WR181 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jordan WhittingtonLARQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR145 at the median, WR113 - WR169 in the middle half, and WR74 - WR184 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.7 |
1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR145 at the median, WR113 - WR169 in the middle half, and WR74 - WR184 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ryan MillerNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR142 at the median, WR111 - WR165 in the middle half, and WR75 - WR180 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.4 - 2.7 |
1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR142 at the median, WR111 - WR165 in the middle half, and WR75 - WR180 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Zavion ThomasCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR137 at the median, WR110 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR79 - WR173 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.5 - 2.5 |
1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR137 at the median, WR110 - WR159 in the middle half, and WR79 - WR173 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ray-Ray McCloudNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR143 at the median, WR109 - WR168 in the middle half, and WR69 - WR183 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.9 |
1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR143 at the median, WR109 - WR168 in the middle half, and WR69 - WR183 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 12 1.0 - 1.4 projected points | |||||||
| WR | Malik McClainNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR145 at the median, WR116 - WR166 in the middle half, and WR82 - WR180 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.4 - 2.3 |
1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR145 at the median, WR116 - WR166 in the middle half, and WR82 - WR180 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Simi FehokoARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR140 at the median, WR112 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR82 - WR175 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.5 - 2.4 |
1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR140 at the median, WR112 - WR161 in the middle half, and WR82 - WR175 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Chandler BrayboyNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR150 at the median, WR118 - WR173 in the middle half, and WR79 - WR187 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.5 |
1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR150 at the median, WR118 - WR173 in the middle half, and WR79 - WR187 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Malik BensonLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR150 at the median, WR124 - WR169 in the middle half, and WR92 - WR181 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.4 - 2.0 |
1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR150 at the median, WR124 - WR169 in the middle half, and WR92 - WR181 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Lewis BondHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR153 at the median, WR123 - WR176 in the middle half, and WR87 - WR188 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.2 |
1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR153 at the median, WR123 - WR176 in the middle half, and WR87 - WR188 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Bryce OliverHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR157 at the median, WR125 - WR177 in the middle half, and WR86 - WR189 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.2 |
1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR157 at the median, WR125 - WR177 in the middle half, and WR86 - WR189 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Emmanuel Henderson Jr.SEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR153 at the median, WR124 - WR175 in the middle half, and WR87 - WR188 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.2 |
1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR153 at the median, WR124 - WR175 in the middle half, and WR87 - WR188 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR155 at the median, WR129 - WR174 in the middle half, and WR96 - WR185 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.3 - 1.9 |
1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR155 at the median, WR129 - WR174 in the middle half, and WR96 - WR185 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Bo MeltonGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR151 at the median, WR127 - WR168 in the middle half, and WR101 - WR181 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.4 - 1.7 |
1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR151 at the median, WR127 - WR168 in the middle half, and WR101 - WR181 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Gary JenningsLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR160 at the median, WR130 - WR180 in the middle half, and WR92 - WR191 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.3 - 2.0 |
1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR160 at the median, WR130 - WR180 in the middle half, and WR92 - WR191 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Ke'Shawn WilliamsCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR160 at the median, WR131 - WR179 in the middle half, and WR98 - WR190 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.3 - 1.8 |
1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR160 at the median, WR131 - WR179 in the middle half, and WR98 - WR190 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tim JonesJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR130 - WR180 in the middle half, and WR94 - WR191 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% 80% range: 0.3 - 1.9 |
1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR159 at the median, WR130 - WR180 in the middle half, and WR94 - WR191 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Myles PriceMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR156 at the median, WR133 - WR173 in the middle half, and WR106 - WR185 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.3 - 1.6 |
1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR156 at the median, WR133 - WR173 in the middle half, and WR106 - WR185 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Tay MartinDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR164 at the median, WR141 - WR179 in the middle half, and WR109 - WR188 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.3 - 1.5 |
1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR164 at the median, WR141 - WR179 in the middle half, and WR109 - WR188 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Jonathan MingoDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR163 at the median, WR140 - WR178 in the middle half, and WR111 - WR188 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.3 - 1.5 |
1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR163 at the median, WR140 - WR178 in the middle half, and WR111 - WR188 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| WR | Dalen CambreNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR165 at the median, WR139 - WR183 in the middle half, and WR104 - WR193 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% 80% range: 0.2 - 1.6 |
1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR165 at the median, WR139 - WR183 in the middle half, and WR104 - WR193 in the middle 80%. | ||||
Simulated finishes
This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.
Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.
Week 9 WR outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.
-
Tier 1 Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR14Jaxon Smith-Njigba is in Tier 1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR14 at the median, WR5 - WR33 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR48 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 1 Puka NacuaWR15Puka Nacua is in Tier 1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR15 at the median, WR5 - WR37 in the middle half, and WR2 - WR53 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 2 CeeDee LambWR18CeeDee Lamb is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR18 at the median, WR7 - WR40 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR53 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 2 Ja'Marr ChaseWR19Ja'Marr Chase is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR19 at the median, WR7 - WR42 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR57 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 2 Amon-Ra St. BrownWR23Amon-Ra St. Brown is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR23 at the median, WR8 - WR48 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR68 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 3 Tee HigginsWR24Tee Higgins is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR24 at the median, WR9 - WR45 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR61 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 3 Malik NabersWR25Malik Nabers is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR25 at the median, WR9 - WR46 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR61 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 3 Drake LondonWR26Drake London is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR26 at the median, WR11 - WR46 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR61 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 3 Matthew GoldenWR28Matthew Golden is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR28 at the median, WR11 - WR47 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR62 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 3 DeVonta SmithWR35DeVonta Smith is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR35 at the median, WR11 - WR60 in the middle half, and WR3 - WR86 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 3 Christian WatsonWR31Christian Watson is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR31 at the median, WR11 - WR52 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR72 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 3 Justin JeffersonWR29Justin Jefferson is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR29 at the median, WR11 - WR50 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR66 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 3 Chris OlaveWR28Chris Olave is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR28 at the median, WR12 - WR48 in the middle half, and WR4 - WR65 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 4 Tetairoa McMillanWR35Tetairoa McMillan is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR35 at the median, WR13 - WR52 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR71 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 4 Nico CollinsWR36Nico Collins is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR36 at the median, WR14 - WR57 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR76 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 4 Luther Burden IIIWR33Luther Burden III is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR33 at the median, WR14 - WR51 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR68 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 4 George PickensWR37George Pickens is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR37 at the median, WR14 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR80 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 4 Garrett WilsonWR37Garrett Wilson is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR37 at the median, WR15 - WR58 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR80 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 4 Parker WashingtonWR36Parker Washington is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR36 at the median, WR14 - WR56 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR75 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 4 Mike EvansWR39Mike Evans is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR39 at the median, WR15 - WR63 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR86 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 4 Rashee RiceWR41Rashee Rice is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR41 at the median, WR16 - WR65 in the middle half, and WR5 - WR90 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 4 Jameson WilliamsWR39Jameson Williams is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR39 at the median, WR15 - WR59 in the middle half, and WR6 - WR77 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 4 Zay FlowersWR38Zay Flowers is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR38 at the median, WR17 - WR55 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR72 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 4 Michael WilsonWR40Michael Wilson is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR40 at the median, WR16 - WR61 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR85 in the middle 80%.
Show WR25 - WR36
-
Tier 5 A.J. BrownWR47A.J. Brown is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR18 - WR75 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR105 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 5 Emeka EgbukaWR44Emeka Egbuka is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR44 at the median, WR19 - WR68 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR95 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 5 DJ MooreWR46DJ Moore is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR19 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR7 - WR98 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 5 Jalen CokerWR44Jalen Coker is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR44 at the median, WR20 - WR65 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR86 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 5 Denzel BostonWR45Denzel Boston is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR45 at the median, WR20 - WR70 in the middle half, and WR8 - WR94 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 5 Omar Cooper Jr.WR46Omar Cooper Jr. is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR20 - WR67 in the middle half, and WR8 - WR91 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 6 Stefon DiggsWR48Stefon Diggs is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR48 at the median, WR20 - WR70 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR92 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 6 Adonai MitchellWR47Adonai Mitchell is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR47 at the median, WR22 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR92 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 6 Rome OdunzeWR46Rome Odunze is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR46 at the median, WR22 - WR65 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR86 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 6 Devaughn VeleWR48Devaughn Vele is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR48 at the median, WR23 - WR69 in the middle half, and WR10 - WR90 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 6 Jaylen WaddleWR48Jaylen Waddle is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR48 at the median, WR24 - WR67 in the middle half, and WR11 - WR87 in the middle 80%.
-
Tier 6 Deebo Samuel Sr.WR51Deebo Samuel Sr. is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes WR51 at the median, WR23 - WR79 in the middle half, and WR9 - WR105 in the middle 80%.
Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.
The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.
How these are made
This board was built from 2026 usage for 79% of the board, draft position for 99%, an outside projection for 55%, sportsbook props for 68%, an official status for 81%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Standard, 1QB.
Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured November 5, 2026 18:05 UTC. Model rankings-v1.5.2, board captured 2026-11-05.
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
