IND · Bye 13
Keenan Allen
LMD WR Tier 6 for Week 9 · 6.4 projected Standard points · WR40 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.4 points this week, WR Tier 6. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 2.0 - 12.6 points. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 25% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 6
6.3 - 6.9 projected points
Rest of season
WR40
91st by projected points
Projected
6.4
week 9, Standard
Top 12
11%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 25% at WR
Movement
↓ 2
WR37 in Week 8, WR39 now
Should you start Keenan Allen in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Keenan Allen WR39 for Week 9, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 25% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
WR39 vs WR63 +24
LMD has him WR39. The fantasy draft market has him WR63, 24 places lower.
Our projection is higher than the outside forecast.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.15 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.26 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.26 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.00 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Keenan Allen has averaged +0.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BAL | 2.3 | 3.2 | +0.9 |
| Wk 2 | @ KC | 3.1 | 0.5 | -2.6 |
| Wk 3 | vs HOU | 5.2 | 12.3 | +7.1 |
| Wk 4 | @ WAS | 5.6 | Pending | — |
| Wk 5 | @ PIT | 5.3 | 4.5 | -0.8 |
| Wk 6 | vs TEN | 6.0 | 8.2 | +2.2 |
| Wk 7 | @ MIN | 5.7 | 3.1 | -2.6 |
| Wk 8 | @ JAX | 5.2 | 6.7 | +1.5 |
| Wk 9 | vs DAL | 6.4 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR66. For the rest of the season LMD has him 26 spots higher, at WR40.
Preseason market: WR66 · ADP 146.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR40 +26
LMD has him 26 spots higher than his WR66 draft price.
Week 9
WR39 +27
LMD has him 27 spots higher than his WR66 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR66 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 60.5 points this season, WR40. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 17% of simulated seasons. That is 6.5 a game over 9.015 remaining games. Down 2 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
6.5 / game
Over 9.015 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 17%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Keenan Allen #140 in 1QB and #142 in Superflex, WR60 at his position. Age 34.
1QB
#140
WR60 · tier 31 · of 300
Superflex
#142
WR60 · tier 25 · of 307
- Last season 142.2 pts 8.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 8.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 25% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.07
pick 163.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.02
half of simulations take him by pick 170
Draft range
12.09 - 15.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 3,323 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.02 in 84% of simulations
Pick 170 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.12 and 15.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.12 | 86% |
| 15.01 | 85% |
| 15.02 | 84% |
| 15.03 | 82% |
| 15.04 | 81% |
| 15.05 | 79% |
| 15.06 | 78% |
| 15.07 | 76% |
| 15.08 | 75% |
| 15.09 | 73% |
| 15.10 | 71% |
| 15.11 | 70% |
| 15.12 | 68% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.09-12.10 | 3% | 293 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-12.12 | 4% | 351 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | <1% | 3 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | <1% | 12 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | <1% | 9 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | <1% | 18 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | <1% | 20 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | <1% | 30 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | <1% | 53 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | <1% | 64 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | <1% | 79 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | <1% | 74 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | <1% | 83 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 1% | 100 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 3% | 291 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.04 | 3% | 306 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 3% | 307 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07-15.08 | 3% | 319 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09-15.10 | 3% | 345 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 3323 simulations in which Keenan Allen was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 2%
- C.J. Stroud QB · HOU 2%
- Kyler Murray QB · MIN 2%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 2%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 2%
- Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Keenan Allen was selected in 3323 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.