HOU · Bye 8
Nico Collins
LMD WR Tier 4 for Week 9 · 8.8 projected Standard points · WR10 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 8.8 points this week, WR Tier 4. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 2.6 - 17.7 points. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 23% · Top 24: 39% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 4
8.0 - 8.9 projected points
Rest of season
WR10
35th by projected points
Projected
8.8
week 9, Standard
Top 12
23%
Top 3: 6% · Top 24: 39% at WR
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at WR in Week 8
Should you start Nico Collins in Week 9?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Nico Collins WR15 for Week 9, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 39% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.25 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.10 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.07 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight positive+0.26 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Texans Insider Gets Honest About Potential Nico Collins Trade
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Houston Texans mailbag: Expectations for second half of season? Is Nico Collins to Chiefs real?
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Marvin Harrison Jr., Nico Collins Fantasy Outlook with Texans' Jaylin Noel Out for Year with Injury
Bleacher Report ·
-
Cowboys Save Season + Post-Week 7 People’s Panic Meter: Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson in Trouble?!
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Fantasy football Week 8 panic meter: Nico Collins, Chase Brown and more
USA TODAY ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Nico Collins by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 5 completed games Nico Collins has averaged +0.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BUF | 8.9 | 14.2 | +5.3 |
| Wk 2 | vs CIN | 9.7 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | @ IND | 8.9 | Pending | — |
| Wk 4 | vs DAL | 9.9 | 23.8 | +13.9 |
| Wk 5 | @ TEN | 10.5 | 5.6 | -4.9 |
| Wk 6 | @ JAX | 10.3 | 7.9 | -2.4 |
| Wk 7 | vs NYG | 10.1 | 0.6 | -9.5 |
| Wk 9 | @ LAC | 8.8 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR10, and for the rest of the season LMD still has him there.
Preseason market: WR10 · ADP 19.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR10 Even
Level with his WR10 draft price.
Week 9
WR15 −5
LMD has him 5 spots lower than his WR10 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR10 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 90.5 points this season, WR10. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 42% · Top 24: 76% of simulated seasons. That is 8.7 a game over 10.22 remaining games. Up 2 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
8.7 / game
Over 10.22 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 42% · Top 24: 76%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Nico Collins #40 in 1QB and #49 in Superflex, WR12 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#40
WR12 · tier 13 · of 300
Superflex
#49
WR12 · tier 11 · of 307
- Last season 190.7 pts 12.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 83% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 8.0 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 24% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
2.11
pick 22.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
2.11
half of simulations take him by pick 23
Draft range
2.02 - 3.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 2.11 in 52% of simulations
Pick 23 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 3.02, where he is available in 32% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 2.11 52% · 3.02 32% · 4.11 <1% · 5.02 <1% · 6.11 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.07 and 3.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 2.09 | 66% |
| 2.10 | 59% |
| 2.11 | 52% |
| 2.12 | 44% |
| 3.01 | 37% |
| 3.02 | 32% |
| 3.03 | 27% |
| 3.04 | 22% |
| 3.05 | 18% |
| 3.06 | 15% |
| 3.07 | 12% |
| 3.08 | 9% |
| 3.09 | 7% |
| 3.10 | 6% |
| 3.11 | 5% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.02 | 2% | 176 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.03 | 2% | 175 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.04 | 2% | 245 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.05 | 4% | 370 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.06 | 5% | 475 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.07 | 6% | 550 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.08 | 6% | 563 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.09 | 7% | 660 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10 | 7% | 724 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11 | 7% | 747 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 7% | 748 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 5% | 514 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 5% | 524 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 5% | 504 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 3% | 340 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 4% | 350 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 3% | 276 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 2% | 244 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Nico Collins was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 6%
- Drake London WR · ATL 5%
- Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 5%
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 5%
Usually taken just after
- Zay Flowers WR · BAL 6%
- Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 6%
- Chris Olave WR · NO 6%
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 5%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Nico Collins was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.