PHI · Bye 10 · Rookie
Makai Lemon
LMD WR91 for Week 3 · 3.7 projected Standard points · WR122 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 3.7 points this week, WR91. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 9% of simulated weeks. Down 25 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR91
168th by projected points
Rest of season
WR122
216th by projected points
Projected
3.7
week 3, Standard
Top 12
3%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 9% at WR
Movement
↓ 25
WR66 in Week 2, WR91 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.56 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.77 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.29 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Makai Lemon knows he has "lots to improve" after minus-5 yards in his first NFL game
NBC Sports ·
-
NFC Notes: Terry McLaurin, Makai Lemon, Commanders, Eagles, Giants
yardbarker.com ·
-
Sean Mannion expects Makai Lemon to have a bigger role for Eagles
Yahoo Sports ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Makai Lemon's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 129.3 to 120.7 over the last 7 days.
-
Eagles rookie receiver Makai Lemon has spent a lot of time working after practice to make up for time lost with an injury during his rookie training camp.
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Makai Lemon by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Makai Lemon has averaged -3.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs WAS | 3.4 | -0.5 | -3.9 |
| Wk 2 | @ TEN | 3.2 | 0.9 | -2.3 |
| Wk 3 | @ CHI | 3.7 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR56. For the rest of the season LMD has him 66 spots lower, at WR122.
Preseason market: WR56 · ADP 122.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR122 −66
LMD has him 66 spots lower than his WR56 draft price.
Week 3
WR91 −35
LMD has him 35 spots lower than his WR56 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR56 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 50.9 points this season, WR122. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 3.8 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 51 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
3.8 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Makai Lemon #79 in 1QB and #80 in Superflex, WR29 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#79
WR29 · tier 19 · of 297 · rookie 6 of 52
Superflex
#80
WR29 · tier 15 · of 303 · rookie 6 of 52
- Draft capital Round 1, pick 20 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.06
pick 113.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.06
half of simulations take him by pick 114
Draft range
8.12 - 11.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,998 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.06 in 50% of simulations
Pick 114 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 11.07, where he is available in 17% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 10.06 50% · 11.07 17% · 12.06 4% · 13.07 <1% · 14.06 <1% · 15.07 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.08 and 11.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.04 | 55% |
| 10.05 | 53% |
| 10.06 | 50% |
| 10.07 | 47% |
| 10.08 | 44% |
| 10.09 | 42% |
| 10.10 | 39% |
| 10.11 | 37% |
| 10.12 | 34% |
| 11.01 | 31% |
| 11.02 | 29% |
| 11.03 | 26% |
| 11.04 | 24% |
| 11.05 | 21% |
| 11.06 | 19% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.12-9.01 | 3% | 312 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 4% | 403 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 4% | 436 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 4% | 423 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 5% | 456 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 5% | 468 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 6% | 554 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 6% | 597 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 5% | 542 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 5% | 507 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 5% | 505 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 4% | 425 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 4% | 427 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 3% | 325 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 3% | 291 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9998 simulations in which Makai Lemon was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 2%
- Josh Downs WR · IND 2%
Usually taken just after
- Aaron Jones RB · MIN 2%
- Kyle Pitts TE · ATL 2%
- Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 2%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Makai Lemon was selected in 9998 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.