BUF · Bye 7
Khalil Shakir
LMD WR42 for Week 3 · 6.3 projected Standard points · WR48 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.3 points this week, WR42. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 23% of simulated weeks. Down 4 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR42
88th by projected points
Rest of season
WR48
95th by projected points
Projected
6.3
week 3, Standard
Top 12
11%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 23% at WR
Movement
↓ 4
WR38 in Week 2, WR42 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.32 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.02 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.02 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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STATUS
Khalil Shakir is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
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ADP UPDATE
Khalil Shakir's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 106.3 to 97.3 over the last 7 days.
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30 most important Bills players of 2026: No. 12 Khalil Shakir
Yahoo Sports ·
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Buffalo Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman checks in with wide receiver Khalil Shakir on the play while they line up during first half action at Empower FIeld at Mile High in Denver, Colorado on Jan. 17
Sports Illustrated ·
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Updated Khalil Shakir Fantasy Outlook 2026: Bills WR Is a Potential Steal Despite DJ Moore’s Arrival
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Khalil Shakir by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Khalil Shakir has averaged +0.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ HOU | 3.8 | 5.0 | +1.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs DET | 4.2 | 3.8 | -0.4 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAC | 6.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 92.5 points this season, WR48. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 12% of simulated seasons. That is 6.0 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 14 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
6.0 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 12%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Khalil Shakir #121 in 1QB and #128 in Superflex, WR51 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#121
WR51 · tier 27 · of 297
Superflex
#128
WR51 · tier 22 · of 303
- Last season 130.4 pts 8.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 19% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.07
pick 163.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.02
half of simulations take him by pick 170
Draft range
12.10 - 15.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 5,386 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.02 in 73% of simulations
Pick 170 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.12 and 15.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.12 | 77% |
| 15.01 | 76% |
| 15.02 | 73% |
| 15.03 | 70% |
| 15.04 | 67% |
| 15.05 | 65% |
| 15.06 | 62% |
| 15.07 | 60% |
| 15.08 | 57% |
| 15.09 | 55% |
| 15.10 | 52% |
| 15.11 | 50% |
| 15.12 | 48% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.10-12.11 | 4% | 439 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 4% | 424 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 8 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 18 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 31 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 49 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 57 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | 1% | 101 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | 1% | 114 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | 1% | 126 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 1% | 109 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 1% | 144 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 2% | 182 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 4% | 393 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 6% | 566 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 5% | 508 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 5% | 508 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08-15.09 | 5% | 483 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 221 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 5386 simulations in which Khalil Shakir was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 3%
- Alvin Kamara RB · NO 3%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 3%
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 2%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
- Jake Bates K · DET 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Khalil Shakir was selected in 5386 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.