BUF · Bye 7
Khalil Shakir
LMD WR Tier 7 for Week 9 · 5.4 projected Standard points · WR49 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.4 points this week, WR Tier 7. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.7 - 11.2 points. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 8% · Top 24: 19% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 7
5.3 - 6.1 projected points
Rest of season
WR49
106th by projected points
Projected
5.4
week 9, Standard
Top 12
8%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 19% at WR
Movement
↓ 10
WR41 in Week 8, WR51 now
Should you start Khalil Shakir in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Khalil Shakir WR51 for Week 9, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 19% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
WR51 vs WR43 -8
LMD has him WR51. The fantasy draft market has him WR43, 8 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.05 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.01 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.50 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Week 8 Fantasy Football Sleepers Featuring Jacoby Brissett and Khalil Shakir
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Khalil Shakir, Germie Bernard, and 6 More Must-Start Wide Receivers in Week 6 Fantasy Football
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Dalton Kincaid or Khalil Shakir? DJ Moore injury reshapes Week 5 start-sit call
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Bills WR Khalil Shakir Surprisingly Leads NFL in Critical Stat
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Josh Allen wants to see the Bills get the ball to Khalil Shakir more
The Buffalo News ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Khalil Shakir by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Khalil Shakir has averaged +0.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ HOU | 3.8 | 5.0 | +1.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs DET | 4.2 | 3.8 | -0.4 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAC | 6.1 | 0.6 | -5.5 |
| Wk 4 | vs NE | 5.3 | 6.2 | +0.9 |
| Wk 5 | @ LAR | 5.9 | 8.0 | +2.1 |
| Wk 6 | @ LV | 5.6 | 9.4 | +3.8 |
| Wk 8 | vs BAL | 5.8 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| Wk 9 | @ MIN | 5.4 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 55.3 points this season, WR49. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 10% of simulated seasons. That is 5.5 a game over 9.972 remaining games. Up 4 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
5.5 / game
Over 9.972 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 10%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Khalil Shakir #121 in 1QB and #128 in Superflex, WR51 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#121
WR51 · tier 27 · of 300
Superflex
#128
WR51 · tier 22 · of 307
- Last season 130.4 pts 8.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 19% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.07
pick 163.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.01
half of simulations take him by pick 169
Draft range
12.10 - 15.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 5,403 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.01 in 75% of simulations
Pick 169 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.12 and 15.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.11 | 77% |
| 14.12 | 76% |
| 15.01 | 75% |
| 15.02 | 73% |
| 15.03 | 70% |
| 15.04 | 68% |
| 15.05 | 65% |
| 15.06 | 63% |
| 15.07 | 60% |
| 15.08 | 58% |
| 15.09 | 55% |
| 15.10 | 53% |
| 15.11 | 50% |
| 15.12 | 48% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.10-12.11 | 4% | 433 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 4% | 431 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 6 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 21 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 33 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 44 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 57 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | 1% | 104 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | 1% | 114 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | 1% | 127 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 1% | 128 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 2% | 172 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 2% | 209 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 4% | 350 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 5% | 520 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 5% | 502 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 5% | 492 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08-15.09 | 5% | 469 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 3% | 255 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 5403 simulations in which Khalil Shakir was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 3%
- Will Reichard K · MIN 3%
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 3%
- Travis Hunter WR · JAX 2%
- Alvin Kamara RB · NO 2%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Khalil Shakir was selected in 5403 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.