ARI · Bye 14 · Rookie
Reggie Virgil
Reggie Virgil comes off the board at 4.05 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie mock drafts, with a median of 4.06.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie · 10,000 simulations · generated October 1, 2026
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | @ SF | 5.3 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Reggie Virgil #271 in 1QB and #279 in Superflex, WR110 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#271
WR110 · tier 64 · of 297 · rookie 50 of 52
Superflex
#279
WR110 · tier 57 · of 303 · rookie 51 of 52
- Draft capital Round 5, pick 143 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.05
pick 40.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.06
half of simulations take him by pick 42
Draft range
3.07 - 4.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 7,623 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Reggie Virgil.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.06 in 64% of simulations
Pick 42 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.01 and 4.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.04 | 72% |
| 4.05 | 68% |
| 4.06 | 64% |
| 4.07 | 60% |
| 4.08 | 55% |
| 4.09 | 50% |
| 4.10 | 43% |
| 4.11 | 37% |
| 4.12 | 31% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.07 | 2% | 191 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 2% | 172 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 2% | 187 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 2% | 172 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11 | 2% | 179 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 2% | 182 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 3% | 329 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 3% | 331 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 4% | 389 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 4% | 373 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 4% | 439 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 4% | 411 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 5% | 478 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 5% | 525 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 6% | 607 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 6% | 614 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 6% | 625 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 7623 simulations in which Reggie Virgil was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Bryce Lance WR · NO 5%
- Colbie Young WR · CIN 5%
- Skyler Bell WR · BUF 5%
- Kaden Wetjen WR · PIT 5%
Usually taken just after
- Skyler Bell WR · BUF 5%
- Bryce Lance WR · NO 5%
- Eli Heidenreich RB · PIT 5%
- Colbie Young WR · CIN 5%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Reggie Virgil was selected in 7623 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.