LV · Bye 13
Jalen Nailor
LMD WR Tier 7 for Week 9 · 5.3 projected Half PPR points · WR77 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.3 points this week, WR Tier 7. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.7 - 10.9 points. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 11% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 7
5.2 - 6.4 projected points
Rest of season
WR77
178th by projected points
Projected
5.3
week 9, Half PPR
Top 12
4%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 11% at WR
Movement
↑ 7
WR70 in Week 8, WR63 now
Should you start Jalen Nailor in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Jalen Nailor WR63 for Week 9, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 11% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.24 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.01 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.28 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.00 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Jalen Nailor focused on winning, returning to Raiders receiving corps
reviewjournal.com ·
-
Jalen Nailor won't play in Week 5
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jalen Nailor by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 6 completed games Jalen Nailor has averaged -0.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs MIA | 5.1 | 4.2 | -0.9 |
| Wk 2 | @ LAC | 4.9 | 1.4 | -3.5 |
| Wk 3 | @ NO | 4.7 | 2.1 | -2.6 |
| Wk 4 | vs KC | 4.4 | Pending | — |
| Wk 5 | @ NE | 4.5 | Pending | — |
| Wk 6 | vs BUF | 4.0 | 1.4 | -2.6 |
| Wk 7 | vs LAR | 4.7 | 2.4 | -2.3 |
| Wk 8 | @ NYJ | 4.5 | 11.8 | +7.3 |
| Wk 9 | @ SF | 5.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 44.1 points this season, WR77. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 5.2 a game over 8.971 remaining games. Up 6 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
5.2 / game
Over 8.971 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jalen Nailor #272 in 1QB and #280 in Superflex, WR109 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#272
WR109 · tier 64 · of 300
Superflex
#280
WR109 · tier 57 · of 307
- Last season 86.2 pts 5.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 80% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 2.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 10% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.04
pick 200.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.05
half of simulations take him by pick 201
Draft range
14.08 - 15.13
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 4,822 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Jalen Nailor.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.05 in 78% of simulations
Pick 201 overall in a 14-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.01 and 15.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.03 | 84% |
| 15.04 | 81% |
| 15.05 | 78% |
| 15.06 | 76% |
| 15.07 | 73% |
| 15.08 | 70% |
| 15.09 | 68% |
| 15.10 | 65% |
| 15.11 | 62% |
| 15.12 | 60% |
| 15.13 | 57% |
| 15.14 | 54% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.08 | <1% | 66 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | <1% | 75 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | <1% | 68 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | <1% | 91 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | <1% | 86 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.13 | <1% | 92 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.14 | 1% | 115 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 3% | 276 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 3% | 280 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 3% | 297 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 3% | 263 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 3% | 271 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 3% | 257 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 3% | 268 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 3% | 253 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 3% | 305 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 3% | 265 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 247 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 3% | 263 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.13 | 3% | 258 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 4822 simulations in which Jalen Nailor was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Kayshon Boutte WR · HOU 3%
- San Francisco 49ers DST · SF 3%
- Eddy Pineiro K · SF 3%
- Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 3%
- Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 3%
- Wil Lutz K · DEN 2%
- Ja'Kobi Lane WR · BAL 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jalen Nailor was selected in 4822 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.