TB · Bye 10
Tez Johnson
LMD WR136 for Week 3 · 2.3 projected Half PPR points
In season
Week 3 fantasy ranking
We project 2.3 points this week, WR136. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1% of simulated weeks.
Week 3
WR136
271st by projected points
Projected
2.3
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
0%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 1% at WR
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at WR in Week 2
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-1.27 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.87 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.11 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Tez Johnson is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CIN | — | -0.4 | — |
| Wk 2 | — | — | 5.4 | — |
| Wk 3 | vs MIN | 2.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tez Johnson #156 in 1QB and #160 in Superflex, WR64 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#156
WR64 · tier 35 · of 297
Superflex
#160
WR64 · tier 30 · of 303
- Last season 78.4 pts 5.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 88% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 9% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.09
pick 152.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
13.08
half of simulations take him by pick 152
Draft range
12.04 - 15.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,297 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Tez Johnson.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 13.08 in 56% of simulations
Pick 152 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 14.05, where he is available in 34% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 13.08 56% · 14.05 34% · 15.08 11%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.10 and 14.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 13.06 | 60% |
| 13.07 | 58% |
| 13.08 | 56% |
| 13.09 | 53% |
| 13.10 | 51% |
| 13.11 | 48% |
| 13.12 | 45% |
| 14.01 | 43% |
| 14.02 | 40% |
| 14.03 | 38% |
| 14.04 | 36% |
| 14.05 | 34% |
| 14.06 | 32% |
| 14.07 | 30% |
| 14.08 | 28% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.04-12.05 | 5% | 484 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 5% | 470 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 5% | 466 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 4% | 427 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 5% | 471 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | 4% | 446 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | 4% | 420 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | 5% | 507 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | 6% | 565 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | 5% | 510 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | 4% | 447 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | 4% | 404 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 4% | 391 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 4% | 363 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 3% | 324 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 3% | 266 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 3% | 256 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9297 simulations in which Tez Johnson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 2%
- Antonio Williams WR · WAS 2%
- Blake Corum RB · LAR 2%
- Terry McLaurin WR · WAS 2%
Usually taken just after
- Antonio Williams WR · WAS 2%
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 2%
- Caleb Douglas WR · MIA 2%
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tez Johnson was selected in 9297 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.