TB · Bye 10
Tez Johnson
LMD WR112 rest of season · 31.6 projected Half PPR points
No game this week
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 31.6 points this season, WR112. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 3.9 a game over 8 remaining games. No game this week.
Rest of season
WR112
237th by projected points
Projected
31.6
rest of season, Half PPR
Top 12
0%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 0% at WR
Movement
NEW
Not ranked in the previous board
Half PPR scoring · Updated November 12, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Tez Johnson has averaged +1.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CIN | — | -0.4 | — |
| Wk 2 | — | — | 5.4 | — |
| Wk 3 | vs MIN | 2.7 | 1.3 | -1.4 |
| Wk 4 | vs GB | 3.1 | 3.7 | +0.6 |
| Wk 5 | @ DAL | 3.0 | 6.9 | +3.9 |
| Wk 6 | vs PIT | 3.2 | 1.7 | -1.5 |
| Wk 7 | @ CAR | 4.9 | 11.7 | +6.8 |
| Wk 8 | vs ATL | 5.6 | 0.0 | -5.6 |
| Wk 9 | @ CHI | 3.3 | 8.6 | +5.3 |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 31.6 points this season, WR112. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 3.9 a game over 8 remaining games. No game this week.
Per game
3.9 / game
Over 8 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 12, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tez Johnson #156 in 1QB and #160 in Superflex, WR64 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#156
WR64 · tier 35 · of 300
Superflex
#160
WR64 · tier 30 · of 307
- Last season 78.4 pts 5.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 88% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 9% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.09
pick 152.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
13.08
half of simulations take him by pick 152
Draft range
12.04 - 15.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,282 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Tez Johnson.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 13.08 in 56% of simulations
Pick 152 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 14.05, where he is available in 34% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 13.08 56% · 14.05 34% · 15.08 11%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.10 and 14.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 13.06 | 60% |
| 13.07 | 58% |
| 13.08 | 56% |
| 13.09 | 53% |
| 13.10 | 51% |
| 13.11 | 48% |
| 13.12 | 45% |
| 14.01 | 43% |
| 14.02 | 40% |
| 14.03 | 38% |
| 14.04 | 36% |
| 14.05 | 34% |
| 14.06 | 32% |
| 14.07 | 30% |
| 14.08 | 28% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.04-12.05 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 5% | 462 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 4% | 432 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 5% | 460 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | 4% | 448 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | 4% | 438 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | 4% | 445 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | 5% | 507 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | 6% | 561 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | 5% | 504 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | 4% | 443 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | 4% | 404 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 4% | 381 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 4% | 367 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 3% | 324 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 3% | 270 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 3% | 255 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9282 simulations in which Tez Johnson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 2%
- Antonio Williams WR · WAS 2%
- Blake Corum RB · LAR 2%
- Terry McLaurin WR · WAS 2%
Usually taken just after
- Antonio Williams WR · WAS 2%
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 2%
- Malachi Fields WR · NYG 2%
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tez Johnson was selected in 9282 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 12, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@9ec076346de89e76
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.