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NFL · 2026 Week 9

Week 9 Standard QB Rankings

Standard, 1QB · 36 players projected · updated November 8, 2026

See how our Week 8 rankings performed

Generated after the period's first kickoff (2026-11-06T01:15:00.000Z); this board is not a clean pregame record for games already played.

How these rankings work

How these rankings are built

We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.

We then update those expectations for Week 9 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.

We then simulate the week 4,000 times. The projected fantasy points those simulations produce set the order and the tiers.

This board is priced in Standard. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.

How the tiers work

Players are grouped into tiers at each position by projected fantasy points. A new tier starts where the projections separate, not after a set number of players, so tiers vary in size and a player who stands apart can be a tier on his own.

The breaks come from the best grouping of each position's projections, the method behind Jenks natural breaks, with gaps judged against how widely weekly scores vary at that position. The rule is the same every week and nobody places players by hand.

Within a tier, players are listed by projected points, but the gaps between them are small. They shouldn't decide a start/sit on their own.

A tier's band is the range of its players' projected points. It isn't a range of outcomes.

A player's 80% range is the middle of his simulated scores: the model puts 10% of outcomes below it and 10% above. Real scores can land outside it.

Players in neighbouring tiers often have overlapping ranges. A higher tier means more projected points, not a guarantee of outscoring everyone below it.

What the percentages mean

For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.

Top 3
how often he finishes among the top three at his position
Top 12
how often he finishes in the top 12
Top 24
how often he finishes in the top 24

A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.

How often a strong start lasts

Since 1999, 77% of QBs inside the top 12 through Week 8 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 324 QB-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.

What stands out this week

36 QBs in 9 tiers for Week 9. Joe Burrow leads at 20.2 projected points.

Tiers break where projected points separate, and the differences inside a tier are small. Each 80% range is the middle 80% of that player's simulated scores; real scores can fall outside it.

Week 9 Standard QB Rankings -- Standard scoring: players grouped into tiers by projected fantasy points, each with his 80% range of simulated scores and the share of simulated weeks finishing top 3, top 12 and top 24 at the position. From our own statistical and market model, not analyst consensus.
Pos Player Proj
Tier 1 19.0 - 20.2 projected points
QB Joe BurrowCIN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 22% of the time, 4th to 12th 39%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 11%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB17 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 22%Top 12: 61%Top 24: 89%
80% range: 7.8 - 33.6
 20.2
QB Brock PurdySF
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB10 at the median, QB4 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 21%Top 12: 58%Top 24: 88%
80% range: 7.5 - 33.2
 19.5
QB Josh AllenBUF
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 33%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB5 - QB19 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 19%Top 12: 55%Top 24: 88%
80% range: 7.3 - 32.3
 19.0
Tier 2 16.7 - 18.2 projected points
QB Patrick MahomesKC
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 33%, and outside the top 24 13%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB5 - QB19 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 16%Top 12: 54%Top 24: 87%
80% range: 7.0 - 30.9
 18.2
QB Drake MayeNE
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 34%, and outside the top 24 14%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 52%Top 24: 86%
80% range: 6.8 - 29.8
 17.6
QB Jayden DanielsWAS
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 36%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB6 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 49%Top 24: 84%
80% range: 6.2 - 30.4
 17.3
QB Dak PrescottDAL
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 37%, and outside the top 24 14%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 50%Top 24: 86%
80% range: 6.8 - 29.1
 17.3
QB Jared GoffDET
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 37%, and outside the top 24 15%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 48%Top 24: 85%
80% range: 6.5 - 29.7
 17.1
QB Trevor LawrenceJAX
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 35%, and outside the top 24 18%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 47%Top 24: 82%
80% range: 5.3 - 29.7
 16.7
Tier 3 15.1 - 16.3 projected points
QB Caleb WilliamsCHI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 38%, and outside the top 24 17%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 45%Top 24: 83%
80% range: 6.0 - 28.4
 16.3
QB Jordan LoveGB
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 39%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 45%Top 24: 84%
80% range: 6.5 - 27.9
 16.3
QB C.J. StroudHOU
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 40%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB8 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 44%Top 24: 84%
80% range: 6.3 - 27.3
 16.1
QB Matthew StaffordLAR
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 41%, and outside the top 24 17%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 42%Top 24: 83%
80% range: 6.2 - 26.2
 15.6
QB Tyler ShoughNO
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 39%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 42%Top 24: 81%
80% range: 5.9 - 26.6
 15.5
QB Malik WillisMIA
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 41%, and outside the top 24 18%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 41%Top 24: 82%
80% range: 5.8 - 26.6
 15.4
QB Kirk CousinsLV
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 42%, and outside the top 24 18%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 40%Top 24: 82%
80% range: 6.2 - 26.6
 15.4
QB Bryce YoungCAR
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 42%, and outside the top 24 20%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB9 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 38%Top 24: 80%
80% range: 5.7 - 26.2
 15.1
Tier 4 13.8 - 14.6 projected points
QB J.J. McCarthyNYG
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 40%, and outside the top 24 24%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB9 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB29 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 36%Top 24: 76%
80% range: 4.5 - 26.5
 14.6
QB Bo NixDEN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 43%, and outside the top 24 21%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 36%Top 24: 79%
80% range: 5.5 - 25.0
 14.5
QB Michael Penix Jr.ATL
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 43%, and outside the top 24 24%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB29 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 76%
80% range: 4.9 - 24.9
 14.1
QB Geno SmithNYJ
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 46%, and outside the top 24 22%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB11 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 78%
80% range: 5.4 - 23.6
 13.8
Tier 5 11.8 - 13.2 projected points
QB Carson WentzMIN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 40%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB19 at the median, QB11 - QB26 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB30 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 29%Top 24: 69%
80% range: 3.8 - 24.7
 13.2
QB Daniel JonesIND
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 46%, and outside the top 24 27%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB19 at the median, QB12 - QB25 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB29 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 73%
80% range: 4.6 - 21.8
 12.6
QB Justin HerbertLAC
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 48%, and outside the top 24 29%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB20 at the median, QB13 - QB25 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB29 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 71%
80% range: 4.9 - 21.0
 12.1
QB Deshaun WatsonCLEQQuestionable · projection includes a 71% chance of playing
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 39%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB20 at the median, QB11 - QB78 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB80 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 29%Top 24: 61%
80% range: 0.0 - 24.9
 11.8
Tier 6 8.8 - 10.4 projected points
QB Gardner Minshew IIARI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 41%, and outside the top 24 43%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB23 at the median, QB16 - QB28 in the middle half, and QB9 - QB30 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 57%
80% range: 3.3 - 19.2
 10.4
QB Jalen MilroeSEA
SEA starter not confirmed: Jalen Milroe or Adrian Martinez · projection includes a 50% chance of starting
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB34 at the median, QB14 - QB66 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB67 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 40%
80% range: 0.0 - 25.4
 8.8
Tier 7 5.6 - 7.2 projected points
QB Jacoby BrissettBAL
BAL starter not confirmed: Jacoby Brissett or Joe Fagnano · projection includes a 50% chance of starting
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 62%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB63 at the median, QB17 - QB66 in the middle half, and QB8 - QB67 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 38%
80% range: 0.0 - 20.3
 7.2
QB Baker MayfieldTB
TB starter not confirmed: Baker Mayfield or Jalon Daniels · projection includes a 50% chance of starting
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 64%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB19 - QB68 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 36%
80% range: 0.0 - 18.8
 6.6
QB Joe Milton IIIPHI
PHI starter not confirmed: Joe Milton III or Tanner McKee · projection includes a 50% chance of starting
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB37 at the median, QB22 - QB54 in the middle half, and QB13 - QB56 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 30%
80% range: 0.0 - 16.3
 5.7
QB Adrian MartinezSEA
SEA starter not confirmed: Jalen Milroe or Adrian Martinez · projection includes a 45% chance of starting
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB77 at the median, QB23 - QB79 in the middle half, and QB11 - QB79 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 27%
80% range: 0.0 - 17.7
 5.6
Tier 8 3.7 - 4.5 projected points
QB Tanner McKeePHIQQuestionable · projection includes a 71% chance of playing
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB60 at the median, QB26 - QB62 in the middle half, and QB12 - QB63 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 22%
80% range: 0.0 - 16.3
 4.5
QB Joe FagnanoBAL
BAL starter not confirmed: Jacoby Brissett or Joe Fagnano · projection includes a 45% chance of starting
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB78 at the median, QB26 - QB79 in the middle half, and QB17 - QB80 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 22%
80% range: 0.0 - 13.2
 4.2
QB Jalon DanielsTB
TB starter not confirmed: Baker Mayfield or Jalon Daniels · projection includes a 45% chance of starting
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB41 at the median, QB26 - QB45 in the middle half, and QB17 - QB46 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 21%
80% range: 0.0 - 12.8
 4.1
QB Shedeur SandersCLE
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB80 at the median, QB29 - QB80 in the middle half, and QB15 - QB81 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 19%
80% range: 0.0 - 14.3
 3.7
Tier 9 2.3 projected points
QB Cole PaytonPHI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB81 at the median, QB80 - QB81 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB81 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 10%
80% range: 0.0 - 8.3
 2.3

Simulated finishes

This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.

Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.

Week 9 QB outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.

Projected rank
Median finish
13612243660
  1. Tier 1 Joe Burrow
    QB9
    Joe Burrow is in Tier 1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB17 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
  2. Tier 1 Brock Purdy
    QB10
    Brock Purdy is in Tier 1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB10 at the median, QB4 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
  3. Tier 1 Josh Allen
    QB11
    Josh Allen is in Tier 1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB5 - QB19 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
  4. Tier 2 Patrick Mahomes
    QB11
    Patrick Mahomes is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB5 - QB19 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
  5. Tier 2 Drake Maye
    QB12
    Drake Maye is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  6. Tier 2 Jayden Daniels
    QB13
    Jayden Daniels is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB6 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  7. Tier 2 Dak Prescott
    QB13
    Dak Prescott is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  8. Tier 2 Jared Goff
    QB13
    Jared Goff is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  9. Tier 2 Trevor Lawrence
    QB13
    Trevor Lawrence is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
  10. Tier 3 Caleb Williams
    QB14
    Caleb Williams is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
  11. Tier 3 Jordan Love
    QB14
    Jordan Love is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  12. Tier 3 C.J. Stroud
    QB14
    C.J. Stroud is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB8 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  13. Tier 3 Matthew Stafford
    QB15
    Matthew Stafford is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  14. Tier 3 Tyler Shough
    QB15
    Tyler Shough is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
  15. Tier 3 Malik Willis
    QB15
    Malik Willis is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  16. Tier 3 Kirk Cousins
    QB15
    Kirk Cousins is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  17. Tier 3 Bryce Young
    QB16
    Bryce Young is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB9 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
  18. Tier 4 J.J. McCarthy
    QB17
    J.J. McCarthy is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB9 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB29 in the middle 80%.
  19. Tier 4 Bo Nix
    QB16
    Bo Nix is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
  20. Tier 4 Michael Penix Jr.
    QB17
    Michael Penix Jr. is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB29 in the middle 80%.
  21. Tier 4 Geno Smith
    QB17
    Geno Smith is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB11 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
  22. Tier 5 Carson Wentz
    QB19
    Carson Wentz is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB19 at the median, QB11 - QB26 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB30 in the middle 80%.
  23. Tier 5 Daniel Jones
    QB19
    Daniel Jones is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB19 at the median, QB12 - QB25 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB29 in the middle 80%.
  24. Tier 5 Justin Herbert
    QB20
    Justin Herbert is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB20 at the median, QB13 - QB25 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB29 in the middle 80%.
Show QB25 - QB36
  1. Tier 5 Deshaun Watson
    QB20
    Deshaun Watson is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB20 at the median, QB11 - QB78 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB80 in the middle 80%.
  2. Tier 6 Gardner Minshew II
    QB23
    Gardner Minshew II is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB23 at the median, QB16 - QB28 in the middle half, and QB9 - QB30 in the middle 80%.
  3. Tier 6 Jalen Milroe
    QB34
    Jalen Milroe is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB34 at the median, QB14 - QB66 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB67 in the middle 80%.
  4. Tier 7 Jacoby Brissett
    QB63
    Jacoby Brissett is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB63 at the median, QB17 - QB66 in the middle half, and QB8 - QB67 in the middle 80%.
  5. Tier 7 Baker Mayfield
    QB64
    Baker Mayfield is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB19 - QB68 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB69 in the middle 80%.
  6. Tier 7 Joe Milton III
    QB37
    Joe Milton III is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB37 at the median, QB22 - QB54 in the middle half, and QB13 - QB56 in the middle 80%.
  7. Tier 7 Adrian Martinez
    QB77
    Adrian Martinez is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB77 at the median, QB23 - QB79 in the middle half, and QB11 - QB79 in the middle 80%.
  8. Tier 8 Tanner McKee
    QB60
    Tanner McKee is in Tier 8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB60 at the median, QB26 - QB62 in the middle half, and QB12 - QB63 in the middle 80%.
  9. Tier 8 Joe Fagnano
    QB78
    Joe Fagnano is in Tier 8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB78 at the median, QB26 - QB79 in the middle half, and QB17 - QB80 in the middle 80%.
  10. Tier 8 Jalon Daniels
    QB41
    Jalon Daniels is in Tier 8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB41 at the median, QB26 - QB45 in the middle half, and QB17 - QB46 in the middle 80%.
  11. Tier 8 Shedeur Sanders
    QB80
    Shedeur Sanders is in Tier 8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB80 at the median, QB29 - QB80 in the middle half, and QB15 - QB81 in the middle 80%.
  12. Tier 9 Cole Payton
    QB81
    Cole Payton is in Tier 9 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB81 at the median, QB80 - QB81 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB81 in the middle 80%.

Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.

The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.

How these are made

This board was built from 2026 usage for 79% of the board, draft position for 99%, an outside projection for 56%, sportsbook props for 66%, an official status for 82%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Standard, 1QB.

Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured November 8, 2026 11:57 UTC. Model rankings-v1.5.2, board captured 2026-11-08.

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props).

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