TB · Bye 10
Chris Godwin Jr.
LMD WR Tier 8 for Week 9 · 4.5 projected Standard points · WR66 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.5 points this week, WR Tier 8. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.5 - 9.7 points. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 13% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 8
3.9 - 5.0 projected points
Rest of season
WR66
151st by projected points
Projected
4.5
week 9, Standard
Top 12
4%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 13% at WR
Movement
↓ 11
WR49 in Week 8, WR60 now
Should you start Chris Godwin Jr. in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Chris Godwin Jr. WR60 for Week 9, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 13% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.16 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-1.29 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.03 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.01 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Chris Godwin Jr. should be available for Week 8
USA TODAY ·
-
Chris Godwin Jr. Headlines Fantasy Football Players to Drop in Week 8
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Steelers Linked To Intriguing Chris Godwin Jr Trade After Buccaneers Win
yardbarker.com ·
-
Chris Godwin Jr. receives day off
USA TODAY ·
-
Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin Jr. Talks About Jalon Daniels’ ‘Aura’
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Chris Godwin Jr. by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games Chris Godwin Jr. has averaged -1.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CIN | 4.1 | 4.3 | +0.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs CLE | 4.0 | 5.8 | +1.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs MIN | 5.5 | 2.5 | -3.0 |
| Wk 4 | vs GB | 4.2 | 3.1 | -1.1 |
| Wk 5 | @ DAL | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 |
| Wk 6 | vs PIT | 4.6 | 3.7 | -0.9 |
| Wk 7 | @ CAR | 6.1 | 2.7 | -3.4 |
| Wk 8 | vs ATL | 5.8 | 0.0 | -5.8 |
| Wk 9 | @ CHI | 4.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR39. For the rest of the season LMD has him 27 spots lower, at WR66.
Preseason market: WR39 · ADP 79.7
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR66 −27
LMD has him 27 spots lower than his WR39 draft price.
Week 9
WR60 −21
LMD has him 21 spots lower than his WR39 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR39 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 40.9 points this season, WR66. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1% of simulated seasons. That is 4.6 a game over 9 remaining games. Up 3 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
4.6 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 1%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Chris Godwin Jr. #271 in 1QB and #279 in Superflex, WR108 at his position. Age 30.
1QB
#271
WR108 · tier 64 · of 300
Superflex
#279
WR108 · tier 57 · of 307
- Last season 66.5 pts 7.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 59% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.1 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 22% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.04
pick 87.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.04
half of simulations take him by pick 88
Draft range
6.10 - 9.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.04 in 50% of simulations
Pick 88 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 9, the same seat picks again at 9.09, where he is available in 12% of simulations.
Slot 9's remaining turns: 8.04 50% · 9.09 12% · 10.04 5% · 11.09 <1% · 12.04 <1% · 13.09 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.06 and 9.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.02 | 56% |
| 8.03 | 53% |
| 8.04 | 50% |
| 8.05 | 48% |
| 8.06 | 45% |
| 8.07 | 42% |
| 8.08 | 40% |
| 8.09 | 37% |
| 8.10 | 34% |
| 8.11 | 32% |
| 8.12 | 30% |
| 9.01 | 28% |
| 9.02 | 25% |
| 9.03 | 23% |
| 9.04 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.10-6.11 | 3% | 327 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 4% | 373 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02-7.03 | 4% | 429 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 5% | 475 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 5% | 519 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 5% | 455 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 5% | 519 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 5% | 524 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 5% | 514 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 5% | 546 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 5% | 478 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 5% | 465 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 4% | 446 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 4% | 361 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 3% | 329 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 3% | 282 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10 | 1% | 132 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Chris Godwin Jr. was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · HOU 2%
- Michael Wilson WR · ARI 2%
- Sam LaPorta TE · DET 2%
- Michael Pittman Jr. WR · PIT 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jordan Addison WR · MIN 2%
- Jayden Reed WR · GB 2%
- Sam LaPorta TE · DET 2%
- Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Chris Godwin Jr. was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.