CLE · Bye 11 · Rookie
KC Concepcion Jr.
LMD WR Tier 6 for Week 9 · 6.5 projected Standard points · WR42 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.5 points this week, WR Tier 6. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 2.2 - 12.8 points. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 25% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 6
6.3 - 6.9 projected points
Rest of season
WR42
97th by projected points
Projected
6.5
week 9, Standard
Top 12
11%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 25% at WR
Movement
↓ 10
WR28 in Week 8, WR38 now
Should you start KC Concepcion Jr. in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks KC Concepcion Jr. WR38 for Week 9, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 25% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.07 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.29 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.00 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.17 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Fantasy Football Week 9 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: KC Concepcion Jr vs. Jaylen Waddle
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Browns win as Quinshon Judkins, KC Concepcion have big games | Takeaways
Yahoo Sports ·
-
STATUS
KC Concepcion Jr. is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
KC Concepcion secures four catches in Week 6
USA TODAY ·
-
KC Concepcion Defends Minkah Fitzpatrick After Concussion Despite Comments from Browns OL
Bleacher Report ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to KC Concepcion Jr. by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games KC Concepcion Jr. has averaged -0.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ JAX | 3.6 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ TB | 4.3 | 2.2 | -2.1 |
| Wk 3 | vs CAR | 6.1 | 0.9 | -5.2 |
| Wk 4 | vs PIT | 5.6 | 6.4 | +0.8 |
| Wk 5 | @ NYJ | 6.2 | 0.5 | -5.7 |
| Wk 6 | vs BAL | 5.1 | 3.9 | -1.2 |
| Wk 7 | @ TEN | 5.5 | 15.2 | +9.7 |
| Wk 8 | @ PIT | 6.8 | 3.7 | -3.1 |
| Wk 9 | @ NO | 6.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR53. For the rest of the season LMD has him 11 spots higher, at WR42.
Preseason market: WR53 · ADP 114.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR42 +11
LMD has him 11 spots higher than his WR53 draft price.
Week 9
WR38 +15
LMD has him 15 spots higher than his WR53 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR53 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 58.6 points this season, WR42. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 15% of simulated seasons. That is 6.6 a game over 9 remaining games. Down 3 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
6.6 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 15%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has KC Concepcion Jr. #89 in 1QB and #91 in Superflex, WR35 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 21.
1QB
#89
WR35 · tier 21 · of 300 · rookie 7 of 52
Superflex
#91
WR35 · tier 16 · of 307 · rookie 7 of 52
- Draft capital Round 1, pick 24 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.03
pick 123.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.02
half of simulations take him by pick 122
Draft range
9.08 - 12.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,938 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.02 in 52% of simulations
Pick 122 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 12.11, where he is available in 7% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 11.02 52% · 12.11 7% · 13.02 6% · 14.11 3% · 15.02 3%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.04 and 11.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.12 | 57% |
| 11.01 | 55% |
| 11.02 | 52% |
| 11.03 | 49% |
| 11.04 | 46% |
| 11.05 | 43% |
| 11.06 | 41% |
| 11.07 | 39% |
| 11.08 | 36% |
| 11.09 | 34% |
| 11.10 | 31% |
| 11.11 | 29% |
| 11.12 | 27% |
| 12.01 | 25% |
| 12.02 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.08-9.09 | 3% | 305 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 3% | 328 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 4% | 374 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 4% | 400 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 5% | 477 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 4% | 446 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 5% | 471 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 6% | 556 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 5% | 547 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 5% | 527 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 5% | 492 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 5% | 500 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 4% | 427 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 4% | 423 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.03 | 4% | 421 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.05 | 4% | 364 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 3% | 330 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08 | 1% | 137 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9938 simulations in which KC Concepcion Jr. was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 2%
Usually taken just after
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 2%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
- Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
KC Concepcion Jr. was selected in 9938 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.