CLE · Bye 11 · Rookie
KC Concepcion
LMD WR45 for Week 3 · 6.2 projected Standard points · WR46 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.2 points this week, WR45. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 10% · Top 24: 23% of simulated weeks. Up 2 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR45
92nd by projected points
Rest of season
WR46
93rd by projected points
Projected
6.2
week 3, Standard
Top 12
10%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 23% at WR
Movement
↑ 2
WR47 in Week 2, WR45 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.38 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.19 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.22 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
KC Concepcion touches six receptions in Week 2
Yahoo Sports ·
-
A last name rooted in Puerto Rican culture shapes Browns' KC Concepcion
beaconjournal.com ·
-
AFC Notes: KC Concepcion, Aaron Rodgers, Browns, Ravens, Steelers
yardbarker.com ·
-
Why Browns rookie KC Concepcion is a 'sleeper' awards candidate per ESPN
Sporting News ·
-
KC Concepcion doesn't need the ball to affect the game — and that's what makes him so dangerous
cleveland.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to KC Concepcion by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games KC Concepcion has averaged -0.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ JAX | 3.6 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ TB | 4.3 | 2.2 | -2.1 |
| Wk 3 | vs CAR | 6.2 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR53. For the rest of the season LMD has him 7 spots higher, at WR46.
Preseason market: WR53 · ADP 114.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR46 +7
LMD has him 7 spots higher than his WR53 draft price.
Week 3
WR45 +8
LMD has him 8 spots higher than his WR53 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR53 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 92.8 points this season, WR46. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 13% of simulated seasons. That is 6.5 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 8 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
6.5 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 13%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has KC Concepcion #89 in 1QB and #91 in Superflex, WR35 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 21.
1QB
#89
WR35 · tier 21 · of 297 · rookie 7 of 52
Superflex
#91
WR35 · tier 16 · of 303 · rookie 7 of 52
- Draft capital Round 1, pick 24 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.03
pick 123.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.02
half of simulations take him by pick 122
Draft range
9.08 - 12.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,934 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.02 in 52% of simulations
Pick 122 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 12.11, where he is available in 8% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 11.02 52% · 12.11 8% · 13.02 5% · 14.11 4% · 15.02 3%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.04 and 11.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.12 | 57% |
| 11.01 | 55% |
| 11.02 | 52% |
| 11.03 | 49% |
| 11.04 | 46% |
| 11.05 | 43% |
| 11.06 | 41% |
| 11.07 | 39% |
| 11.08 | 36% |
| 11.09 | 34% |
| 11.10 | 31% |
| 11.11 | 29% |
| 11.12 | 27% |
| 12.01 | 25% |
| 12.02 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.08-9.09 | 3% | 306 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 3% | 324 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 4% | 372 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 4% | 392 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 5% | 481 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 5% | 508 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12-11.01 | 6% | 559 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.03 | 5% | 546 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.05 | 5% | 532 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.07 | 5% | 490 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.09 | 5% | 494 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 4% | 427 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 4% | 421 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.03 | 4% | 426 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.05 | 4% | 356 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 3% | 327 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08 | 1% | 136 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9934 simulations in which KC Concepcion was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Aaron Jones RB · MIN 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 2%
Usually taken just after
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 2%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
- Aaron Jones RB · MIN 2%
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
KC Concepcion was selected in 9934 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.