DAL · Bye 14
CeeDee Lamb
LMD WR Tier 2 for Week 9 · 12.2 projected Standard points · WR6 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 12.2 points this week, WR Tier 2. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 4.1 - 22.9 points. Top 3: 14% · Top 12: 39% · Top 24: 58% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 2
11.4 - 12.2 projected points
Rest of season
WR6
24th by projected points
Projected
12.2
week 9, Standard
Top 12
39%
Top 3: 14% · Top 24: 58% at WR
Movement
—
Unchanged: WR3 in Week 8
Should you start CeeDee Lamb in Week 9?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks CeeDee Lamb WR3 for Week 9, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 58% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.08 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.14 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.35 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.75 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
CeeDee Lamb Makes Strong Assessment Of Cowboys' Roster Despite Losing Record
yardbarker.com ·
-
CeeDee Lamb Says Cowboys Take Too Long To Adjust, Calls For Simpler Offense
yardbarker.com ·
-
CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Smith Remember Marshawn Kneeland On Anniversary Of His Death
yardbarker.com ·
-
Abercrombie & Fitch and Dallas Cowboys Wide Receiver CeeDee Lamb Launch Co-Designed Collection
messenger-inquirer.com ·
-
Cowboys’ Brian Schottenheimer explains curious CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens decisions
clutchpoints.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to CeeDee Lamb by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games CeeDee Lamb has averaged +2.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ NYG | 10.0 | 10.4 | +0.4 |
| Wk 2 | vs WAS | 9.6 | 27.3 | +17.7 |
| Wk 3 | vs BAL | 10.4 | 13.2 | +2.8 |
| Wk 4 | @ HOU | 10.5 | 24.3 | +13.8 |
| Wk 5 | vs TB | 12.9 | 0.9 | -12.0 |
| Wk 6 | @ GB | 11.9 | 7.0 | -4.9 |
| Wk 7 | @ PHI | 11.6 | 19.4 | +7.8 |
| Wk 8 | vs ARI | 12.5 | 5.8 | -6.7 |
| Wk 9 | @ IND | 12.2 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR5. For the rest of the season LMD has him 1 spot lower, at WR6.
Preseason market: WR5 · ADP 13.7
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR6 −1
LMD has him 1 spot lower than his WR5 draft price.
Week 9
WR3 +2
LMD has him 2 spots higher than his WR5 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR5 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 104.6 points this season, WR6. Top 3: 21% · Top 12: 67% · Top 24: 91% of simulated seasons. That is 12.0 a game over 9 remaining games.
Per game
12.0 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 21% · Top 12: 67% · Top 24: 91%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has CeeDee Lamb #44 in 1QB and #53 in Superflex, WR14 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#44
WR14 · tier 14 · of 300
Superflex
#53
WR14 · tier 11 · of 307
- Last season 163.4 pts 12.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 85% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 10.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 27% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
2.01
pick 13.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
2.01
half of simulations take him by pick 13
Draft range
1.10 - 2.04
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 2.01 in 64% of simulations
Pick 13 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 3.12, where he is available in 0% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 2.01 64% · 3.12 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 1.12 and 2.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 1.11 | 87% |
| 1.12 | 78% |
| 2.01 | 64% |
| 2.02 | 47% |
| 2.03 | 31% |
| 2.04 | 19% |
| 2.05 | 9% |
| 2.06 | 3% |
| 2.07 | <1% |
| 2.08 | <1% |
| 2.09 | <1% |
| 2.10 | <1% |
| 2.11 | <1% |
| 2.12 | <1% |
| 3.01 | 0% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 1.08 | 1% | 125 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.09 | 4% | 359 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.10 | 6% | 592 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.11 | 9% | 860 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.12 | 14% | 1413 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.01 | 16% | 1642 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.02 | 16% | 1621 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.03 | 13% | 1274 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.04 | 9% | 949 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.05 | 6% | 599 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which CeeDee Lamb was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 14%
- De'Von Achane RB · MIA 14%
- Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 12%
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 11%
Usually taken just after
- Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 14%
- Saquon Barkley RB · PHI 12%
- A.J. Brown WR · NE 11%
- De'Von Achane RB · MIA 9%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
CeeDee Lamb was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.