JAX · Bye 7
Travis Hunter
LMD WR Tier 9 for Week 9 · 3.7 projected Standard points · WR68 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 3.7 points this week, WR Tier 9. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 0.9 - 8.9 points. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 4% · Top 24: 11% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 9
2.9 - 3.7 projected points
Rest of season
WR68
157th by projected points
Projected
3.7
week 9, Standard
Top 12
4%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 11% at WR
Movement
↓ 18
WR50 in Week 8, WR68 now
Should you start Travis Hunter in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Travis Hunter WR68 for Week 9, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 11% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
WR68 vs WR54 -14
LMD has him WR68. The fantasy draft market has him WR54, 14 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Strong positive+2.07 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No recent stats
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.38 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.18 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
'Special' Travis Hunter Hyped by Trevor Lawrence After Historic Game, HC Says It's Part of 'Plan'
Bleacher Report ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Travis Hunter by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CLE | 2.5 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | @ DEN | 1.7 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | vs NE | 4.5 | Pending | — |
| Wk 4 | @ CIN | 3.2 | Pending | — |
| Wk 5 | vs PHI | 6.2 | Pending | — |
| Wk 6 | vs HOU | 3.8 | Pending | — |
| Wk 8 | vs IND | 3.7 | Pending | — |
| Wk 9 | @ BAL | 3.7 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 40.0 points this season, WR68. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 2% of simulated seasons. That is 3.7 a game over 10 remaining games. Down 24 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
3.7 / game
Over 10 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 2%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Travis Hunter #191 in 1QB and #196 in Superflex, WR82 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#191
WR82 · tier 42 · of 300
Superflex
#196
WR82 · tier 36 · of 307
- Last season 49.8 pts 7.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 41% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 6.6 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 18% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.12
pick 156.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.02
half of simulations take him by pick 158
Draft range
12.04 - 15.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 6,664 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.02 in 67% of simulations
Pick 158 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 15.11, where he is available in 38% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 14.02 67% · 15.11 38%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.09 and 15.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 13.12 | 68% |
| 14.01 | 68% |
| 14.02 | 67% |
| 14.03 | 66% |
| 14.04 | 66% |
| 14.05 | 65% |
| 14.06 | 65% |
| 14.07 | 64% |
| 14.08 | 63% |
| 14.09 | 63% |
| 14.10 | 62% |
| 14.11 | 61% |
| 14.12 | 61% |
| 15.01 | 60% |
| 15.02 | 58% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.04-12.05 | 3% | 294 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 4% | 352 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 6% | 641 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 8% | 750 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 9 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 21 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 19 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 40 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 52 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | <1% | 78 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | 1% | 112 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | 1% | 121 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 1% | 118 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 1% | 124 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 2% | 151 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 3% | 310 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 5% | 481 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 5% | 500 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 4% | 420 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08-15.09 | 4% | 433 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 6664 simulations in which Travis Hunter was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 3%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 2%
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
- Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 2%
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Travis Hunter was selected in 6664 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.