LAR · Bye 11
Puka Nacua
LMD WR9 rest of season · 136.5 projected Standard points
Out this week
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 136.5 points this season, WR9. Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 45% · Top 24: 74% of simulated seasons. That is 10.6 a game over 14 remaining games. Ruled out this week, so this projection is for the games after it. Down 6 since the Sept. 20 board.
Rest of season
WR9
31st by projected points
Projected
136.5
rest of season, Standard
Top 12
45%
Top 3: 9% · Top 24: 74% at WR
Movement
↓ 6
WR3 on Sept. 20, WR9 now
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Puka Nacua Listed Questionable Monday Vs Giants With Hip Injury
canyon-news.com ·
-
Puka Nacua family member GF walks back ‘promise’ about Rams star’s status vs Giants
nypost.com ·
-
Puka Nacua Trending In ‘Wrong Direction’ For Week 2
yardbarker.com ·
-
Is Puka Nacua playing in Week 2 game vs Giants? Is he injured? Latest status
hindustantimes.com ·
-
Rams-Giants final injury report: Puka Nacua trending ‘wrong way’ per report
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Puka Nacua by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Puka Nacua has averaged -5.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs SF | 12.4 | 7.4 | -5.0 |
| Wk 2 | vs NYG | 11.7 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR1. For the rest of the season LMD has him 8 spots lower, at WR9.
Preseason market: WR1 · ADP 4.2
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR9 −8
LMD has him 8 spots lower than his WR1 draft price.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR1 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 136.5 points this season, WR9. Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 45% · Top 24: 74% of simulated seasons. That is 10.6 a game over 14 remaining games. Ruled out this week, so this projection is for the games after it. Down 6 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
10.6 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 45% · Top 24: 74%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Puka Nacua #3 in 1QB and #6 in Superflex, WR1 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#3
WR1 · tier 2 · of 297
Superflex
#6
WR1 · tier 3 · of 303
- Last season 310.5 pts 19.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 86% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 10.7 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 31% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
1.05
pick 4.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
1.05
half of simulations take him by pick 5
Draft range
1.03 - 1.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 1.05 in 54% of simulations
Pick 5 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 2.08, where he is available in 0% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 1.05 54% · 2.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 1.04 and 1.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 1.03 | 93% |
| 1.04 | 81% |
| 1.05 | 54% |
| 1.06 | 29% |
| 1.07 | 15% |
| 1.08 | 8% |
| 1.09 | 4% |
| 1.10 | 1% |
| 1.11 | <1% |
| 1.12 | <1% |
| 2.01 | <1% |
| 2.02 | <1% |
| 2.03 | <1% |
| 2.04 | 0% |
| 2.05 | 0% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 1.01 | 3% | 256 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.02 | 4% | 419 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.03 | 12% | 1191 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.04 | 28% | 2758 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.05 | 25% | 2483 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.06 | 14% | 1428 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.07 | 7% | 703 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.08 | 4% | 411 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.09 | 2% | 205 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.10 | <1% | 86 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Puka Nacua was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 26%
- Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN 17%
- Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 14%
- Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 14%
Usually taken just after
- Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 22%
- Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN 22%
- Derrick Henry RB · BAL 13%
- Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 12%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Puka Nacua was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.