WAS · Bye 7 · Rookie
Antonio Williams
LMD WR Tier 6 for Week 9 · 7.2 projected Half PPR points · WR52 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.2 points this week, WR Tier 6. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 2.5 - 14.0 points. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 8% · Top 24: 20% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 6
6.8 - 8.2 projected points
Rest of season
WR52
107th by projected points
Projected
7.2
week 9, Half PPR
Top 12
8%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 20% at WR
Movement
↑ 2
WR52 in Week 8, WR50 now
Should you start Antonio Williams in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Antonio Williams WR50 for Week 9, outside the WR24 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside WR24 in 20% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.18 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.43 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.08 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight positive+0.31 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Commanders' Antonio Williams talks chemistry with Jayden Daniels
Yahoo Sports ·
-
With Terry McLaurin Out, Washington Must Change How It Uses Antonio Williams
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Antonio Williams by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Antonio Williams has averaged +1.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PHI | 2.3 | 14.4 | +12.1 |
| Wk 2 | @ DAL | 3.5 | 3.9 | +0.4 |
| Wk 3 | vs SEA | 3.7 | 2.5 | -1.2 |
| Wk 4 | vs IND | 5.1 | 3.6 | -1.5 |
| Wk 5 | vs NYG | 6.1 | 4.6 | -1.5 |
| Wk 6 | @ SF | 5.1 | 6.5 | +1.4 |
| Wk 8 | vs PHI | 6.4 | 7.9 | +1.5 |
| Wk 9 | vs LAR | 7.2 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 70.3 points this season, WR52. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 7% of simulated seasons. That is 7.2 a game over 9.963 remaining games. Up 1 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
7.2 / game
Over 9.963 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 7%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Antonio Williams #159 in 1QB and #165 in Superflex, WR65 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#159
WR65 · tier 36 · of 300 · rookie 17 of 52
Superflex
#165
WR65 · tier 31 · of 307 · rookie 17 of 52
- Draft capital Round 3, pick 71 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.10
pick 178.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.11
half of simulations take him by pick 179
Draft range
15.09 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 542 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Antonio Williams.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.11 in 98% of simulations
Pick 179 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.10 and 15.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.09 | >99% |
| 15.10 | >99% |
| 15.11 | 98% |
| 15.12 | 97% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | <1% | 1 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | <1% | 1 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | <1% | 1 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | <1% | 4 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | <1% | 20 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | <1% | 50 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | <1% | 89 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 150 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 220 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 542 simulations in which Antonio Williams was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
- Kyler Murray QB · MIN 3%
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB · JAX 3%
- Keaton Mitchell RB · LAC 3%
Usually taken just after
- De'Zhaun Stribling WR · SF 2%
- Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 2%
- Eddy Pineiro K · SF 2%
- Theo Johnson TE · NYG 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Antonio Williams was selected in 542 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.