WAS · Bye 7 · Rookie
Antonio Williams
LMD WR76 for Week 3 · 6.4 projected Full PPR points · WR90 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.4 points this week, WR76. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 3% · Top 24: 9% of simulated weeks. Down 3 since Week 2.
Week 3
WR76
143rd by projected points
Rest of season
WR90
159th by projected points
Projected
6.4
week 3, Full PPR
Top 12
3%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 9% at WR
Movement
↓ 3
WR73 in Week 2, WR76 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.11 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.60 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.26 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Antonio Williams has averaged +7.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PHI | 2.8 | 16.4 | +13.6 |
| Wk 2 | @ DAL | 4.3 | 5.4 | +1.1 |
| Wk 3 | vs SEA | 6.4 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 97.3 points this season, WR90. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 6.2 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 13 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
6.2 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Antonio Williams #159 in 1QB and #165 in Superflex, WR65 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#159
WR65 · tier 36 · of 297 · rookie 17 of 52
Superflex
#165
WR65 · tier 31 · of 303 · rookie 17 of 52
- Draft capital Round 3, pick 71 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty WR rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.09
pick 177.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.10
half of simulations take him by pick 178
Draft range
15.07 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 1,396 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Antonio Williams.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.10 in 94% of simulations
Pick 178 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.08 and 15.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.08 | 98% |
| 15.09 | 96% |
| 15.10 | 94% |
| 15.11 | 91% |
| 15.12 | 88% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | <1% | 6 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | <1% | 27 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | <1% | 30 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | <1% | 63 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 1% | 112 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 179 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 203 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 3% | 260 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 3% | 271 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 236 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 1396 simulations in which Antonio Williams was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Harrison Butker K · KC 4%
- Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Omar Cooper Jr. WR · NYJ 3%
Usually taken just after
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 3%
- Sam Darnold QB · SEA 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Antonio Williams was selected in 1396 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.