CIN · Bye 6
Ja'Marr Chase
LMD WR Tier 2 for Week 9 · 11.9 projected Standard points · WR3 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 11.9 points this week, WR Tier 2. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 3.8 - 22.9 points. Top 3: 13% · Top 12: 38% · Top 24: 56% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 2
11.4 - 12.2 projected points
Rest of season
WR3
16th by projected points
Projected
11.9
week 9, Standard
Top 12
38%
Top 3: 13% · Top 24: 56% at WR
Movement
—
Unchanged: WR4 in Week 8
Should you start Ja'Marr Chase in Week 9?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Ja'Marr Chase WR4 for Week 9, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 56% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.06 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.49 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.80 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.41 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
'Everything Is Always Blown Out Of Proportion' - Ja'Marr Chase Sets Record Straight Following Titans Outburst
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Ja'Marr Chase Throws Zac Taylor Into Spotlight After Bengals' Overtime Win
newsweek.com ·
-
Ja'Marr Chase goes over century mark
USA TODAY ·
-
Is Ja'Marr Chase Playing Today? (Injury Update, Betting Impact for Titans vs. Bengals in NFL Week 8)
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Inactives watch: Ja'Marr Chase to play, Breece Hall questionable, Emeka Egbuka out
ESPN ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Ja'Marr Chase by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Ja'Marr Chase has averaged +1.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs TB | 12.2 | 1.2 | -11.0 |
| Wk 2 | @ HOU | 10.8 | 19.5 | +8.7 |
| Wk 3 | @ PIT | 9.7 | 15.8 | +6.1 |
| Wk 4 | vs JAX | 11.2 | 2.7 | -8.5 |
| Wk 5 | @ MIA | 10.2 | 13.7 | +3.5 |
| Wk 7 | @ BAL | 11.1 | 12.2 | +1.1 |
| Wk 8 | vs TEN | 11.7 | 20.1 | +8.4 |
| Wk 9 | @ ATL | 11.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR2. For the rest of the season LMD has him 1 spot lower, at WR3.
Preseason market: WR2 · ADP 4.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR3 −1
LMD has him 1 spot lower than his WR2 draft price.
Week 9
WR4 −2
LMD has him 2 spots lower than his WR2 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR2 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 110.1 points this season, WR3. Top 3: 28% · Top 12: 75% · Top 24: 94% of simulated seasons. That is 11.8 a game over 9.942 remaining games.
Per game
11.8 / game
Over 9.942 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 28% · Top 12: 75% · Top 24: 94%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Ja'Marr Chase #7 in 1QB and #11 in Superflex, WR4 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#7
WR4 · tier 4 · of 300
Superflex
#11
WR4 · tier 4 · of 307
- Last season 251.1 pts 15.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 96% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 10.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 29% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
1.05
pick 5.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
1.05
half of simulations take him by pick 5
Draft range
1.03 - 1.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 1.05 in 66% of simulations
Pick 5 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 2.08, where he is available in 0% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 1.05 66% · 2.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 1.04 and 1.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 1.03 | 94% |
| 1.04 | 86% |
| 1.05 | 66% |
| 1.06 | 39% |
| 1.07 | 17% |
| 1.08 | 6% |
| 1.09 | 2% |
| 1.10 | <1% |
| 1.11 | <1% |
| 1.12 | <1% |
| 2.01 | <1% |
| 2.02 | <1% |
| 2.03 | <1% |
| 2.04 | <1% |
| 2.05 | 0% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 1.01 | 2% | 227 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.02 | 3% | 342 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.03 | 8% | 848 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.04 | 20% | 1962 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.05 | 27% | 2705 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.06 | 23% | 2262 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.07 | 11% | 1091 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.08 | 4% | 371 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.09 | 1% | 128 of 10000 simulations |
| 1.10 | <1% | 46 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Ja'Marr Chase was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Puka Nacua WR · LAR 22%
- Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 21%
- Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 17%
- Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 10%
Usually taken just after
- Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 24%
- Derrick Henry RB · BAL 19%
- Puka Nacua WR · LAR 17%
- James Cook III RB · BUF 13%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Ja'Marr Chase was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.