NFL · 2026 Week 3
Week 3 Standard RB Rankings
Standard, 1QB · 102 players projected · updated September 22, 2026
See how our Week 2 rankings performed
Our Week 3 quarterback rankings are being corrected and are not shown. The board on this page was generated before a fix to how we model whether a quarterback plays at all, and it ranked several backups among the starters. Running backs, receivers and tight ends are unaffected and are current. No market snapshot: no sportsbook or prediction-market prices reached this board. Sportsbook prices reached 0 of 143 fantasy-relevant players (0%), so the market half of this board is thinner than a full week's.
How these rankings work
How these rankings are built
We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.
We then update those expectations for Week 3 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.
We then simulate the week 4,000 times and rank players by the projected fantasy points those simulations produce.
This board is priced in Standard. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.
What the percentages mean
For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.
- Top 3
- how often he finishes among the top three at his position
- Top 12
- how often he finishes in the top 12
- Top 24
- how often he finishes in the top 24
A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.
How often a strong start lasts
Since 1999, 54% of RBs inside the top 12 through Week 2 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 329 RB-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.
What stands out this week
102 RBs ranked for Week 3. Kenneth Walker III leads at 17.8 projected points.
Tier break
1.6 projected points separate RB4 Jonathan Taylor from RB5 Bijan Robinson.
Biggest differences from the draft market
Behind
- Saquon BarkleyRB14Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 9% · Top 12: 30% · Top 24: 52% -6 vs. RB8
- Quinshon JudkinsRB24Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 3% · Top 12: 20% · Top 24: 41% -4 vs. RB20
- Jadarian PriceRB28Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 4% · Top 12: 19% · Top 24: 39% -4 vs. RB24
Movement
Risers
- Alvin KamaraRB34Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 13% · Top 24: 30% ↑ 23
- Rachaad WhiteRB36Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 10% · Top 24: 28% ↑ 11
- TreVeyon HendersonRB26Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 39% ↑ 10
Fallers
- MarShawn LloydRB40Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 26% ↓ 10
- Rhamondre StevensonRB29Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 19% · Top 24: 42% ↓ 9
- Saquon BarkleyRB14Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 30% · Top 24: 52% ↓ 6
Positional movement since the final Week 2 board, among players inside RB36 either week. Players not ranked at their position then are excluded.
| # | Pos | Player | Pos rank | Proj | Outcome profile | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB | Kenneth Walker IIIKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 24% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 20%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 24%Top 12: 58%Top 24: 80% |
RB1↑ 6 | 17.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 24% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 20%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%. | |
| 2 | RB | Jahmyr GibbsDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 23% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 22%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB22 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB36 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 23%Top 12: 56%Top 24: 78% |
RB2↓ 1 | 17.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 23% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 22%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB22 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB36 in the middle 80%. | |
| 3 | RB | Derrick HenryBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 25%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB24 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB38 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 20%Top 12: 53%Top 24: 75% |
RB3↑ 2 | 16.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 25%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB24 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB38 in the middle 80%. | |
| 4 | RB | Jonathan TaylorIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 26%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB38 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 20%Top 12: 54%Top 24: 74% |
RB4↓ 1 | 16.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 26%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB38 in the middle 80%. | |
| 5 | RB | Bijan RobinsonATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 29%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB27 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB38 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 16%Top 12: 46%Top 24: 71% |
RB5↓ 3 | 14.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 29%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB27 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB38 in the middle 80%. | |
| 6 | RB | James CookBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 15%Top 12: 46%Top 24: 70% |
RB6— | 14.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB39 in the middle 80%. | |
| 7 | RB | Christian McCaffreySF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB6 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 44%Top 24: 67% |
RB7↓ 3 | 14.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB6 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB42 in the middle 80%. | |
| 8 | RB | Ashton JeantyLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 43%Top 24: 67% |
RB8↑ 1 | 13.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%. | |
| 9 | RB | De'Von AchaneMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 34%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 42%Top 24: 66% |
RB9↑ 1 | 13.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 34%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB42 in the middle 80%. | |
| 10 | RB | Chase BrownCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 37%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB8 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB43 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 39%Top 24: 63% |
RB10↑ 1 | 12.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 37%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB8 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB43 in the middle 80%. | |
| 11 | RB | Breece HallNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 38%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB8 - RB34 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB44 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 37%Top 24: 62% |
RB11↑ 1 | 12.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 38%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB8 - RB34 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB44 in the middle 80%. | |
| 12 | RB | Omarion HamptonLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB9 - RB36 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB46 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 34%Top 24: 58% |
RB12↑ 1 | 11.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB9 - RB36 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB46 in the middle 80%. | |
| 13 | RB | D'Andre SwiftCHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 46%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 32%Top 24: 54% |
RB13↑ 2 | 11.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 46%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB51 in the middle 80%. | |
| 14 | RB | Saquon BarkleyPHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 48%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB10 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 30%Top 24: 52% |
RB14↓ 6 | 11.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 48%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB10 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB52 in the middle 80%. | |
| 15 | RB | Javonte WilliamsDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 46%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 30%Top 24: 54% |
RB15↓ 1 | 11.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 46%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB49 in the middle 80%. | |
| 16 | RB | Bucky IrvingTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 48%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB11 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 52% |
RB16↑ 6 | 10.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 48%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB11 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB49 in the middle 80%. | |
| 17 | RB | Cam SkatteboNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB12 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 49% |
RB17↑ 2 | 10.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB12 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB51 in the middle 80%. | |
| 18 | RB | Kyren WilliamsLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 46% |
RB18— | 9.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB52 in the middle 80%. | |
| 19 | RB | Bhayshul TutenJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 47% |
RB19↑ 7 | 9.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB52 in the middle 80%. | |
| 20 | RB | Jeremiyah LoveARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 47% |
RB20↓ 4 | 9.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB52 in the middle 80%. | |
| 21 | RB | Chuba HubbardCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB14 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 44% |
RB21↑ 6 | 9.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB14 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB53 in the middle 80%. | |
| 22 | RB | David MontgomeryHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB14 - RB45 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 44% |
RB22↓ 5 | 9.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB14 - RB45 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB55 in the middle 80%. | |
| 23 | RB | Travis EtienneNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB15 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 42% |
RB23↓ 2 | 9.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB15 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB53 in the middle 80%. | |
| 24 | RB | Quinshon JudkinsCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB15 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 41% |
RB24↓ 1 | 8.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB15 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB53 in the middle 80%. | |
| 25 | RB | Aaron JonesMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB15 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB54 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 43% |
RB25↑ 3 | 8.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB15 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB54 in the middle 80%. | |
| 26 | RB | TreVeyon HendersonNEQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB33 at the median, RB15 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB66 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 39% |
RB26↑ 10 | 8.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB33 at the median, RB15 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB66 in the middle 80%. | |
| 27 | RB | Jaylen WarrenPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB15 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB54 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 41% |
RB27↓ 2 | 8.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB15 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB54 in the middle 80%. | |
| 28 | RB | Jadarian PriceSEAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB33 at the median, RB15 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB61 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 39% |
RB28↓ 4 | 8.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB33 at the median, RB15 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB61 in the middle 80%. | |
| 29 | RB | Rhamondre StevensonNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB15 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 42% |
RB29↓ 9 | 8.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB15 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB56 in the middle 80%. | |
| 30 | RB | Tony PollardTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB34 at the median, RB18 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 35% |
RB30↑ 2 | 7.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB34 at the median, RB18 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB56 in the middle 80%. | |
| 31 | RB | Kyle MonangaiCHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB19 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 33% |
RB31— | 7.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB19 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB65 in the middle 80%. | |
| 32 | RB | Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB20 - RB51 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB61 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 32% |
RB32↓ 3 | 7.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB20 - RB51 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB61 in the middle 80%. | |
| 33 | RB | Blake CorumLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB21 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB62 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 30% |
RB33↑ 5 | 7.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB21 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB62 in the middle 80%. | |
| 34 | RB | Alvin KamaraNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB41 at the median, RB21 - RB57 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB74 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 30% |
RB34↑ 23 | 6.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB41 at the median, RB21 - RB57 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB74 in the middle 80%. | |
| 35 | RB | Rico DowdlePITQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB41 at the median, RB22 - RB57 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 28% |
RB35↓ 2 | 6.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB41 at the median, RB22 - RB57 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB71 in the middle 80%. | |
| 36 | RB | Rachaad WhiteWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB22 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB64 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 28% |
RB36↑ 11 | 6.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB22 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB64 in the middle 80%. | |
| 37 | RB | Woody MarksHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB23 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB64 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 27% |
RB37↑ 9 | 6.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB23 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB64 in the middle 80%. | |
| 38 | RB | J.K. DobbinsDENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB23 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB72 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 27% |
RB38↓ 1 | 6.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB23 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB72 in the middle 80%. | |
| 39 | RB | Kaelon BlackSFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB44 at the median, RB24 - RB59 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB74 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 26% |
RB39↓ 5 | 6.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB44 at the median, RB24 - RB59 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB74 in the middle 80%. | |
| 40 | RB | MarShawn LloydGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB24 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 26% |
RB40↓ 10 | 6.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB24 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB68 in the middle 80%. | |
| 41 | RB | Tyler AllgeierARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB25 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 25% |
RB41↓ 6 | 6.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB25 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB68 in the middle 80%. | |
| 42 | RB | Tyjae SpearsTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB25 - RB54 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB67 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 25% |
RB42↑ 6 | 6.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB25 - RB54 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB67 in the middle 80%. | |
| 43 | RB | Kenny GainwellTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB27 - RB59 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 22% |
RB43↓ 2 | 5.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB27 - RB59 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB71 in the middle 80%. | |
| 44 | RB | Jonathon BrooksCARDDoubtful Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB30 - RB63 in the middle half, and RB16 - RB79 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 20% |
RB44↓ 4 | 5.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB30 - RB63 in the middle half, and RB16 - RB79 in the middle 80%. | |
| 45 | RB | Emanuel WilsonSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB31 - RB62 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB74 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 19% |
RB45↑ 67 | 5.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB31 - RB62 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB74 in the middle 80%. | |
| 46 | RB | Brian RobinsonATLQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB51 at the median, RB34 - RB66 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB81 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 17% |
RB46↑ 4 | 4.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB51 at the median, RB34 - RB66 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB81 in the middle 80%. | |
| 47 | RB | Braelon AllenNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB54 at the median, RB36 - RB68 in the middle half, and RB20 - RB81 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 15% |
RB47↓ 8 | 4.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB54 at the median, RB36 - RB68 in the middle half, and RB20 - RB81 in the middle 80%. | |
| 48 | RB | Emmett JohnsonKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB55 at the median, RB38 - RB68 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB81 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 14% |
RB48↑ 1 | 4.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB55 at the median, RB38 - RB68 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB81 in the middle 80%. | |
| 49 | RB | Devin NealNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB40 - RB78 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 13% |
RB49↑ 53 | 4.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB40 - RB78 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB93 in the middle 80%. | |
| 50 | RB | Jarquez HunterMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB40 - RB76 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 13% |
RB50↑ 54 | 4.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB40 - RB76 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB93 in the middle 80%. | |
| 51 | RB | Carlos WashingtonMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB58 at the median, RB39 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 13% |
RB51↑ 55 | 4.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB58 at the median, RB39 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB92 in the middle 80%. | |
| 52 | RB | Chris BrooksGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB57 at the median, RB41 - RB71 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB84 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 12% |
RB52↓ 8 | 4.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB57 at the median, RB41 - RB71 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB84 in the middle 80%. | |
| 53 | RB | Patrick RicardNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB58 at the median, RB40 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 12% |
RB53↑ 68 | 3.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB58 at the median, RB40 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB87 in the middle 80%. | |
| 54 | RB | Jonah ColemanDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB43 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 12% |
RB54NEW | 3.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB43 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB87 in the middle 80%. | |
| 55 | RB | Tank BigsbyPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB60 at the median, RB43 - RB75 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 11% |
RB55↑ 44 | 3.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB60 at the median, RB43 - RB75 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB88 in the middle 80%. | |
| 56 | RB | George HolaniSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB60 at the median, RB43 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 11% |
RB56↓ 14 | 3.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB60 at the median, RB43 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB87 in the middle 80%. | |
| 57 | RB | Najee HarrisNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB45 - RB79 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10% |
RB57↑ 33 | 3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB45 - RB79 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB93 in the middle 80%. | |
| 58 | RB | Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB44 - RB73 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 10% |
RB58↓ 2 | 3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB44 - RB73 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB86 in the middle 80%. | |
| 59 | RB | Justice HillBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB45 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB25 - RB87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 10% |
RB59↓ 8 | 3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB45 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB25 - RB87 in the middle 80%. | |
| 60 | RB | Mike Washington Jr.LV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB61 at the median, RB46 - RB75 in the middle half, and RB25 - RB88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 10% |
RB60↓ 5 | 3.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB61 at the median, RB46 - RB75 in the middle half, and RB25 - RB88 in the middle 80%. | |
| 61 | RB | Devin SingletaryNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB46 - RB76 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 10% |
RB61↓ 16 | 3.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB46 - RB76 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB90 in the middle 80%. | |
| 62 | RB | Roschon JohnsonCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB48 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 9% |
RB62NEW | 3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB48 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB97 in the middle 80%. | |
| 63 | RB | Keaton MitchellLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB66 at the median, RB50 - RB80 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 8% |
RB63↓ 10 | 3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB66 at the median, RB50 - RB80 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB93 in the middle 80%. | |
| 64 | RB | Samaje PerineCINQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB66 at the median, RB49 - RB84 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 8% |
RB64↓ 12 | 3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB66 at the median, RB49 - RB84 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB97 in the middle 80%. | |
| 65 | RB | Kaleb JohnsonGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB53 - RB85 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% |
RB65NEW | 2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB53 - RB85 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB97 in the middle 80%. | |
| 66 | RB | AJ DillonCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB55 - RB85 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB66↓ 2 | 2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB55 - RB85 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB97 in the middle 80%. | |
| 67 | RB | Will ShipleyPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB72 at the median, RB56 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB67↑ 44 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB72 at the median, RB56 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB98 in the middle 80%. | |
| 68 | RB | Ameer AbdullahJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB71 at the median, RB56 - RB86 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB68↓ 7 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB71 at the median, RB56 - RB86 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB97 in the middle 80%. | |
| 69 | RB | Tyler BadieDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB75 at the median, RB58 - RB91 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB69↑ 3 | 2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB75 at the median, RB58 - RB91 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 70 | RB | Amar JohnsonLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB60 - RB98 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB70↑ 6 | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB60 - RB98 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB109 in the middle 80%. | |
| 71 | RB | Phil MafahNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB62 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB32 - RB110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB71↑ 21 | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB62 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB32 - RB110 in the middle 80%. | |
| 72 | RB | Lan LarisonNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB61 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB106 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB72↑ 41 | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB61 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB106 in the middle 80%. | |
| 73 | RB | LeQuint Allen Jr.JAXQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB63 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB111 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB73↑ 45 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB63 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB111 in the middle 80%. | |
| 74 | RB | Emari DemercadoDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB78 at the median, RB63 - RB92 in the middle half, and RB37 - RB103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 4% |
RB74↓ 14 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB78 at the median, RB63 - RB92 in the middle half, and RB37 - RB103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 75 | RB | Reggie GilliamNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB61 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB106 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB75↑ 44 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB61 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB106 in the middle 80%. | |
| 76 | RB | Sincere McCormickSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB64 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB76↑ 22 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB64 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB110 in the middle 80%. | |
| 77 | RB | Jacardia WrightSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB62 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB77↓ 6 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB62 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB110 in the middle 80%. | |
| 78 | RB | Jawhar JordanHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB63 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB78↑ 25 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB63 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB110 in the middle 80%. | |
| 79 | RB | Kaytron AllenWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB63 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB41 - RB104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB79↓ 6 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB63 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB41 - RB104 in the middle 80%. | |
| 80 | RB | Carson SteelePHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB63 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB80↓ 6 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB63 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB110 in the middle 80%. | |
| 81 | RB | Kyle JuszczykSFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB62 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB81↑ 26 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB62 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB110 in the middle 80%. | |
| 82 | RB | Lew Nichols IIIPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB65 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB111 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB82↑ 11 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB65 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB111 in the middle 80%. | |
| 83 | RB | Evan HullARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB66 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB37 - RB112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB83↑ 8 | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB66 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB37 - RB112 in the middle 80%. | |
| 84 | RB | Corey KinerNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB68 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB106 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB84↓ 22 | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB68 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB106 in the middle 80%. | |
| 85 | RB | Seth McGowanIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB69 - RB98 in the middle half, and RB45 - RB108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB85↑ 32 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB69 - RB98 in the middle half, and RB45 - RB108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 86 | RB | Raheim SandersCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB70 - RB98 in the middle half, and RB46 - RB108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB86↓ 23 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB70 - RB98 in the middle half, and RB46 - RB108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 87 | RB | Ray DavisBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB69 - RB98 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB87↑ 27 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB69 - RB98 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB107 in the middle 80%. | |
| 88 | RB | Ronnie RiversLARQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB68 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB113 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
RB88↓ 29 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB68 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB113 in the middle 80%. | |
| 89 | RB | Josh WilliamsTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB89NEW | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB112 in the middle 80%. | |
| 90 | RB | CJ DonaldsonNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB71 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB47 - RB109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB90↓ 25 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB71 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB47 - RB109 in the middle 80%. | |
| 91 | RB | Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYGQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB91↑ 32 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB112 in the middle 80%. | |
| 92 | RB | Kimani VidalLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB71 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB111 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% |
RB92↑ 33 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB71 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB111 in the middle 80%. | |
| 93 | RB | Sean TuckerTBQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB70 - RB107 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB116 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
RB93↓ 18 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB70 - RB107 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB116 in the middle 80%. | |
| 94 | RB | Jaleel McLaughlinCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB69 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB94↑ 33 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB69 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB110 in the middle 80%. | |
| 95 | RB | Sione VakiDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB74 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB111 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB95↓ 37 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB74 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB111 in the middle 80%. | |
| 96 | RB | Julius ChestnutTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB72 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB51 - RB112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB96↓ 2 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB72 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB51 - RB112 in the middle 80%. | |
| 97 | RB | Eric GrayCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB75 - RB108 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB115 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% |
RB97↓ 19 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB75 - RB108 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB115 in the middle 80%. | |
| 98 | RB | Jaydon BluePHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB75 - RB108 in the middle half, and RB51 - RB116 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB98↓ 31 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB75 - RB108 in the middle half, and RB51 - RB116 in the middle 80%. | |
| 99 | RB | Tyler GoodsonDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB75 - RB107 in the middle half, and RB52 - RB115 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB99↓ 15 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB75 - RB107 in the middle half, and RB52 - RB115 in the middle 80%. | |
| 100 | RB | Kendall MiltonCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB75 - RB107 in the middle half, and RB53 - RB115 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB100↓ 32 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB75 - RB107 in the middle half, and RB53 - RB115 in the middle 80%. | |
| 101 | RB | Pierre StrongGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB75 - RB107 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB115 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB101↓ 13 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB75 - RB107 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB115 in the middle 80%. | |
| 102 | RB | Craig ReynoldsWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB75 - RB108 in the middle half, and RB52 - RB115 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB102↓ 32 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB75 - RB108 in the middle half, and RB52 - RB115 in the middle 80%. |
Simulated finishes
This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.
Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.
Week 3 RB outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.
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RB10Kenneth Walker III is ranked RB1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%.
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RB2 Jahmyr GibbsRB10Jahmyr Gibbs is ranked RB2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB22 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB36 in the middle 80%.
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RB3 Derrick HenryRB11Derrick Henry is ranked RB3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB24 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB38 in the middle 80%.
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RB4 Jonathan TaylorRB11Jonathan Taylor is ranked RB4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB38 in the middle 80%.
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RB5 Bijan RobinsonRB14Bijan Robinson is ranked RB5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB27 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB38 in the middle 80%.
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RB6 James CookRB14James Cook is ranked RB6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
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RB15Christian McCaffrey is ranked RB7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB6 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
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RB8 Ashton JeantyRB15Ashton Jeanty is ranked RB8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
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RB9 De'Von AchaneRB16De'Von Achane is ranked RB9 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
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RB10 Chase BrownRB17Chase Brown is ranked RB10 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB8 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB43 in the middle 80%.
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RB11 Breece HallRB18Breece Hall is ranked RB11 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB8 - RB34 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB44 in the middle 80%.
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RB12 Omarion HamptonRB19Omarion Hampton is ranked RB12 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB9 - RB36 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB46 in the middle 80%.
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RB13 D'Andre SwiftRB22D'Andre Swift is ranked RB13 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
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RB14 Saquon BarkleyRB23Saquon Barkley is ranked RB14 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB10 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
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RB15 Javonte WilliamsRB22Javonte Williams is ranked RB15 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
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RB16 Bucky IrvingRB23Bucky Irving is ranked RB16 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB11 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
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RB17 Cam SkatteboRB25Cam Skattebo is ranked RB17 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB12 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
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RB18 Kyren WilliamsRB27Kyren Williams is ranked RB18 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
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RB19 Bhayshul TutenRB27Bhayshul Tuten is ranked RB19 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
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RB20 Jeremiyah LoveRB27Jeremiyah Love is ranked RB20 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
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RB21 Chuba HubbardRB29Chuba Hubbard is ranked RB21 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB14 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
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RB22 David MontgomeryRB30David Montgomery is ranked RB22 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB14 - RB45 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
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RB23 Travis EtienneRB30Travis Etienne is ranked RB23 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB15 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
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RB24 Quinshon JudkinsRB31Quinshon Judkins is ranked RB24 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB15 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
Show RB25 - RB36
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RB25 Aaron JonesRB29Aaron Jones is ranked RB25 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB15 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB54 in the middle 80%.
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RB26 TreVeyon HendersonRB33TreVeyon Henderson is ranked RB26 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB33 at the median, RB15 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB66 in the middle 80%.
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RB27 Jaylen WarrenRB30Jaylen Warren is ranked RB27 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB15 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB54 in the middle 80%.
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RB28 Jadarian PriceRB33Jadarian Price is ranked RB28 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB33 at the median, RB15 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB61 in the middle 80%.
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RB29 Rhamondre StevensonRB31Rhamondre Stevenson is ranked RB29 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB15 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
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RB30 Tony PollardRB34Tony Pollard is ranked RB30 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB34 at the median, RB18 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
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RB31 Kyle MonangaiRB37Kyle Monangai is ranked RB31 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB19 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB65 in the middle 80%.
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RB38Jacory Croskey-Merritt is ranked RB32 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB20 - RB51 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB61 in the middle 80%.
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RB33 Blake CorumRB37Blake Corum is ranked RB33 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB21 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB62 in the middle 80%.
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RB34 Alvin KamaraRB41Alvin Kamara is ranked RB34 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB41 at the median, RB21 - RB57 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB74 in the middle 80%.
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RB35 Rico DowdleRB41Rico Dowdle is ranked RB35 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB41 at the median, RB22 - RB57 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB71 in the middle 80%.
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RB36 Rachaad WhiteRB40Rachaad White is ranked RB36 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB22 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB64 in the middle 80%.
Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.
The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.
How these are made
This board was built from 2026 usage for 68% of the board, draft position for 100%, an outside projection for 58%, an official status for 81%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Standard, 1QB.
Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured September 22, 2026 18:57 UTC. Movement is previous - current; positive means the player moved up the board (a smaller rank number), measured in positional rank against the final Week 2 board generated before that week's first kickoff (September 17, 2026). Model rankings-v1.3.0, board captured 2026-09-22.
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections).
