NO · Bye 8
Chris Olave
LMD WR Tier 3 for Week 9 · 9.7 projected Standard points · WR8 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 9.7 points this week, WR Tier 3. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 3.3 - 18.5 points. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 27% · Top 24: 45% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
WR Tier 3
9.7 - 10.6 projected points
Rest of season
WR8
28th by projected points
Projected
9.7
week 9, Standard
Top 12
27%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 45% at WR
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at WR in Week 8
Should you start Chris Olave in Week 9?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Chris Olave WR13 for Week 9, inside the WR24 starter line. He finishes inside WR24 in 45% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
WR13 vs WR9 -4
LMD has him WR13. The fantasy draft market has him WR9, 4 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.07 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.36 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.25 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.34 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Saints’ Tyler Shough really blew it vs. Steelers by missing Chris Olave for wide-open TD
clutchpoints.com ·
-
Chris Olave targeted 10 times in Week 7
USA TODAY ·
-
Alvin Kamara left stunned by ‘crazy’ amount Chris Olave spent whilst shopping in Paris
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Fantasy Football Impact: What Jordyn Tyson Nearing A Return Means For Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Chris Olave finds end zone in Week 6
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Chris Olave by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Chris Olave has averaged +0.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ DET | 7.8 | 18.2 | +10.4 |
| Wk 2 | @ BAL | 9.7 | 14.6 | +4.9 |
| Wk 3 | vs LV | 11.6 | 10.7 | -0.9 |
| Wk 4 | vs ATL | 11.9 | 11.6 | -0.3 |
| Wk 5 | vs MIN | 10.7 | 4.6 | -6.1 |
| Wk 6 | @ NYG | 11.0 | 10.3 | -0.7 |
| Wk 7 | vs PIT | 9.8 | 5.6 | -4.2 |
| Wk 9 | vs CLE | 9.7 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at WR13. For the rest of the season LMD has him 5 spots higher, at WR8.
Preseason market: WR13 · ADP 25.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
WR8 +5
LMD has him 5 spots higher than his WR13 draft price.
Week 9
WR13 Even
Level with his WR13 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
WR13 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 97.8 points this season, WR8. Top 3: 13% · Top 12: 57% · Top 24: 87% of simulated seasons. That is 9.4 a game over 10.035 remaining games.
Per game
9.4 / game
Over 10.035 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 13% · Top 12: 57% · Top 24: 87%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at WR
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Chris Olave #39 in 1QB and #48 in Superflex, WR11 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#39
WR11 · tier 13 · of 300
Superflex
#48
WR11 · tier 10 · of 307
- Last season 218.0 pts 13.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 80% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 8.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 25% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.03
pick 26.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.03
half of simulations take him by pick 27
Draft range
2.10 - 3.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.03 in 51% of simulations
Pick 27 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 3, the same seat picks again at 4.10, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 3's remaining turns: 3.03 51% · 4.10 <1% · 5.03 <1% · 6.10 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 2.12 and 3.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.01 | 70% |
| 3.02 | 61% |
| 3.03 | 51% |
| 3.04 | 41% |
| 3.05 | 32% |
| 3.06 | 25% |
| 3.07 | 18% |
| 3.08 | 12% |
| 3.09 | 8% |
| 3.10 | 5% |
| 3.11 | 4% |
| 3.12 | 3% |
| 4.01 | 2% |
| 4.02 | 1% |
| 4.03 | <1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.10 | 5% | 482 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.11 | 7% | 680 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 8% | 827 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 9% | 896 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 10% | 1030 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 10% | 1011 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 9% | 865 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 8% | 764 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 7% | 662 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 6% | 601 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 4% | 411 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Chris Olave was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Zay Flowers WR · BAL 7%
- Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 7%
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 7%
- Javonte Williams RB · DAL 7%
Usually taken just after
- Zay Flowers WR · BAL 7%
- Kyren Williams RB · LAR 6%
- Breece Hall RB · NYJ 6%
- Javonte Williams RB · DAL 6%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Chris Olave was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.